CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 ? we average more snow on the CP below ORH in Dec than March? March has a better shot of getting a moderate or greater snowstorm on the CP compared to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well many lousy Decembers continued the awful look into January. I mean if 12/26/04 was delayed 5 days and we had the look on the ensembles around Christmas, panic would ensue. Verbatim, prior to 1/22/05, the pattern wasn't good. This time around we still have something possible prior to NY and it appears we have a favorable pattern for some period of time to look forward to. Ryan backed off I see, so he made a total troll thread it appears There's nothing wrong with saying that statistically a crappy December isn't particularly good for us going forward. That said, when you're looking at a modeled pattern change around 1/1 that looks quite good I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 March has a better shot of getting a moderate or greater snowstorm on the CP compared to December. Just stating averages, no one averages more snow in march than Dec in all of SNE from what I just looked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Which is cool Meteorologically but mentally I'd prefer a bigger Dec and I average more in Dec usually November 2.5 December 13.0 January 14.7 February 12.4 March 11.4 Subjectively and emotionally, I agree with Kevin....November and December are the most gratifying time for snowfall, but the fact of the matter is that it is not the most favorable, unless you are moving the N ME, or Michigan. Agreed....everything else being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 we average more in Dec than March down here, thats a fact I don't think that is the case here...could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I don't think Ryan was trolling lol. The stats are stats. Sometimes niño Decembers suck and 5 days here and there sometimes separate good Decembers from crummy ones when relative to calendar days. Now hopefully this pattern change yields some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I don't think that is the case here...could be wrong. It's more on the east coast...the south coast doesn't really matter as much since a NE wind there isn't off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Funny on that Xmas system; after all that, it was never going to be more than a southerly gale ahead of a sharp fropa and a ribbon squall type deal... Probably see DPs to 57 all the way to CNE or more in that. Then after word, the ridge in the SE tries to roll up again and drives the 850mb T above 0C all the way to BTV and yet another cutter... And then the 06z GFS brings a strong Miller A way out there is dingle-dork time frames... Yet, I'm looking at the EPO progs and they are getting ever more impressive, no below -2SD from D7-15... The 00z Euro tries to sell us a very week complexion in that regard. I have to say ... I really HATE the Euro's ability for extended. It got lucky earlier with that other deal. Mostly, it's like this ... I think it goes back to what Scott and I were discussing yesterday, in that with a large scaled, Northern Pacific regime change, the longer term operational model depictions are not likely seeing things with much accuracy ... less so than the usual lies they tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 December is a more wintry month than March in all aspects. i mean that's indisputable.Maybe the wx doesn't always happen like that..but temps, snow, climo..all clearly state that is the case. I'm pissed off if it's warm and snowless in Dec.. In March...I don't care because it's spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's more on the east coast...the south coast doesn't really matter as much since a NE wind there isn't off the water. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 climo daily snow normals show in the boston area . This show what days snow has historically fallen on and what can be expected, with peaks and drop offs, clearly Dec is usually much more wintry than March Daily Snowfall Normal Day Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec 1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 10 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 11 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 12 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 13 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 14 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 15 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 16 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 17 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 18 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 19 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 20 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 21 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 22 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 23 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 24 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 25 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 26 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 27 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 28 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 29 0.4 - 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 30 0.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 31 0.4 - 0.1 - 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Just stating averages, no one averages more snow in march than Dec in all of SNE from what I just looked up Nah, both ORH and BOS average more in March...it's not a huge difference but it is correct. Not sure if you are just using '81-'10 normals or something, but I use back to 1950 for these as they are less subject to decadal variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I don't think that is the case here...could be wrong. whats your nearest coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 December is a more wintry month than March in all aspects. i mean that's indisputable.Maybe the wx doesn't always happen like that..but temps, snow, climo..all clearly state that is the case. I'm pissed off if it's warm and snowless in Dec.. In March...I don't care because it's spring Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's more on the east coast...the south coast doesn't really matter as much since a NE wind there isn't off the water. Boston? November 1.3 December 9.0 January 12.9 February 10.9 March 7.8 April 1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nah, both ORH and BOS average more in March...it's not a huge difference but it is correct. Not sure if you are just using '81-'10 normals or something, but I use back to 1950 for these as they are less subject to decadal variability. Thanks. I'm at work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nah, both ORH and BOS average more in March...it's not a huge difference but it is correct. Not sure if you are just using '81-'10 normals or something, but I use back to 1950 for these as they are less subject to decadal variability. Now data which is the new normal , correct? basically all of you guys life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Boston? November 1.3 December 9.0 January 12.9 February 10.9 March 7.8 April 1.9 I don't know where you find these numbers, but there is no way Boston averages more snow in December than March. Zero. Dude its now data from the NWS , all of your life, sorry but if you can find different data please post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That storm late next week after Xmas doesn't necessarily look like it has to cut. it might..but it's not as clear cut as the first one is/was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Now data which is the new normal , correct? basically all of you guys life Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close. But that is where the numbers are probably differing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Debating about differences of a couple inches in Dec vs MAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close. But that is where the numbers are probably differing. I thought of that and deleted that last response. Sorry, Steve....too hasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Those back-to-back swfe laden December slast decade really halped skew things. That is how to have snowey Decembers on the cp...swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I don't really care whether or not one month averages an inch more than the other, the overwhelming fact of the matter is Boston has a much larger chance of getting a big one between Say 3/1-3/21 compared to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Those back-to-back swfe laden December slast decade really halped skew things. That is how to have snowey Decembers on the cp...swfe. That and winter ending early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close. But that is where the numbers are probably differing. Basically December and March as the same month as far as snowfall goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 December is a more wintry month than March in all aspects. i mean that's indisputable.Maybe the wx doesn't always happen like that..but temps, snow, climo..all clearly state that is the case. I'm pissed off if it's warm and snowless in Dec.. In March...I don't care because it's spring Violently agree. The sun angle is so low in December the snow tends to stick around, and with the holidays and everyone taking vacations it can arguably be the most enjoyable winter month when it snows. In march the snow melts with the tropical-like sun angle,the birds are starting to appear again, bathing suits stock the store shelves, and everyone is tuning up their lawn mowers and dusting off the beach towels to relax outside in that first 70 degree day....the two months are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Violently agree. The sun angle is so low in December the snow tends to stick around, and with the holidays and everyone taking vacations it can arguably be the most enjoyable winter month when it snows. In march the snow melts with the tropical-like sun angle,the birds are starting to appear again, bathing suits stock the store shelves, and everyone is tuning up their lawn mowers and dusting off the beach towels to relax outside in that first 70 degree day....the two months are worlds apart. Except when it comes to snowfall of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Except when it comes to snowfall of course. It's human nature to be stubborn to their beliefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's human nature to be stubborn to their beliefs.Fact not belief. I'll concede equal on snow, but everything else not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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