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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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Well many lousy Decembers continued the awful look into January. I mean if 12/26/04 was delayed 5 days and we had the look on the ensembles around Christmas, panic would ensue. Verbatim, prior to 1/22/05, the pattern wasn't good. This time around we still have something possible prior to NY and it appears we have a favorable pattern for some period of time to look forward to.

 

Ryan backed off I see, so he made a total troll thread it appears

 

There's nothing wrong with saying that statistically a crappy December isn't particularly good for us going forward. That said, when you're looking at a modeled pattern change around 1/1 that looks quite good I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. 

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Which is cool Meteorologically  but mentally I'd prefer a bigger Dec and I average more in Dec usually

November	2.5
December	13.0
January	        14.7
February	12.4
March	        11.4

 

 

Subjectively and emotionally, I agree with Kevin....November and December are the most gratifying time for snowfall, but the fact of the matter is that it is not the most favorable, unless you are moving the N ME, or Michigan.

Agreed....everything else being equal.

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Funny on that Xmas system; after all that, it was never going to be more than a southerly gale ahead of a sharp fropa and a ribbon squall type deal... Probably see DPs to 57 all the way to CNE or more in that.  

 

Then after word, the ridge in the SE tries to roll up again and drives the 850mb T above 0C all the way to BTV and yet another cutter... 

 

And then the 06z GFS brings a strong Miller A way out there is dingle-dork time frames...  

 

Yet, I'm looking at the EPO progs and they are getting ever more impressive, no below -2SD from D7-15... The 00z Euro tries to sell us a very week complexion in that regard.  I have to say ... I really HATE the Euro's ability for extended.  It got lucky earlier with that other deal.  Mostly, it's like this ...  I think it goes back to what Scott and I were discussing yesterday, in that with a large scaled, Northern Pacific regime change, the longer term operational model depictions are not likely seeing things with much accuracy ... less so than the usual lies they tell.   

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climo daily snow normals show in the boston area . This show what days snow has historically fallen on and what can be expected, with peaks and drop offs, clearly Dec is usually much more wintry than March

Daily Snowfall Normal
Day	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Nov	Dec
1	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.1
2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.2
3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.2
4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2
5	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.2
6	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2
7	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.2
8	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
9	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2
10	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.3
11	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2
12	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
13	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.3
14	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.2
15	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.3
16	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
17	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.3
18	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
19	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.4
20	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.3
21	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
22	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.3
23	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.4
24	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.3
25	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4
26	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.3
27	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.4
28	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.4
29	0.4	-	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.4
30	0.4	-	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.4
31	0.4	-	0.1	-		0.4		
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Just stating averages, no one averages more snow in march than Dec in all of SNE from what I just looked up

Nah, both ORH and BOS average more in March...it's not a huge difference but it is correct. Not sure if you are just using '81-'10 normals or something, but I use back to 1950 for these as they are less subject to decadal variability.

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December is a more wintry month than March in all aspects. i mean that's indisputable.Maybe the wx doesn't always happen like that..but temps, snow, climo..all clearly state that is the case. I'm pissed off if it's warm and snowless in Dec.. In March...I don't care because it's spring

Wrong.

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Nah, both ORH and BOS average more in March...it's not a huge difference but it is correct. Not sure if you are just using '81-'10 normals or something, but I use back to 1950 for these as they are less subject to decadal variability.

Now data which is the new normal , correct? basically all of you guys life

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Boston?

November	1.3
December	9.0
January  	12.9
February	10.9
March	        7.8
April	        1.9

I don't know where you find these numbers, but there is no way Boston averages more snow in December than March.

Zero.

Dude its now data from the NWS , all of your life, sorry but if you can find different data please post

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Now data which is the new normal , correct? basically all of you guys life

Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close.

But that is where the numbers are probably differing.

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Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close.

But that is where the numbers are probably differing.

I thought of that and deleted that last response.

Sorry, Steve....too hasty.

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Yeah that's '81-'10...the recent run of prolific Decembers in the past 10-15 years has definitely made December much snowier on the shorter timescale. On a longer timeline though, it doesn't hold up...but regardless, they aren't that different. I think longterm ORH is about 14.0" in March and 13.0" in December...not a big difference. BOS was something like 7.5" in Dec and a little above 8" in March...again, close.

But that is where the numbers are probably differing.

 

Basically December and March as the same month as far as snowfall goes.

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December is a more wintry month than March in all aspects. i mean that's indisputable.Maybe the wx doesn't always happen like that..but temps, snow, climo..all clearly state that is the case. I'm pissed off if it's warm and snowless in Dec.. In March...I don't care because it's spring

Violently agree.  The sun angle is so low in December the snow tends to stick around, and with the holidays and everyone taking vacations it can arguably be the most enjoyable winter month when it snows.  In march the snow melts with the tropical-like sun angle,the birds are starting to appear again, bathing suits stock the store shelves, and everyone is tuning up their lawn mowers and dusting off the beach towels to relax outside in that first 70 degree day....the two months are worlds apart. 

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Violently agree.  The sun angle is so low in December the snow tends to stick around, and with the holidays and everyone taking vacations it can arguably be the most enjoyable winter month when it snows.  In march the snow melts with the tropical-like sun angle,the birds are starting to appear again, bathing suits stock the store shelves, and everyone is tuning up their lawn mowers and dusting off the beach towels to relax outside in that first 70 degree day....the two months are worlds apart.

Except when it comes to snowfall of course. :lol:

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