weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Through the first half of December (12/15): BOS: +0.3 BDL: +0.6 PVD: +0.7 ORH: -0.4 We'll tack on some more plus through 12/20 or so and maybe beyond for another week. Good bet for December finishing above in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Rain at 40 vs rain at 50. Rain at 40 is better than rain at 50 this time of year. Rather have a coat on on a cold rainy day than feel like its October. Warmer rains at this time of year have a way of making you feel like you do on a warm humid day. But that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nice post. One thing I'm wondering about; those 200 mb VP anomalies seem to be located near the Maritime Continent in 10 days and continue to propagate eastward after that. Wouldn't that correspond to the "warmer" MJO phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think it would actually correspond to a more dateline and even Aleutian ridge and then a gradual push east. In fact, you can see that the euro ensembles actually try to retro the ridge a bit from AK after like day 13. I always treat this as showing the general area or region of where the forcing may be. It seems like there are variables with these that won't always match up to composites. So I don't take these as verbatim...I just take them as showing you the general idea. It seems like the ridgimg starts in a big way thanks to the PAC jet weakening and retracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 good read, scooter. thanks. really all-in-all...things playing out pretty close to the advertised deal from about 10 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I read a lot here, post little, but want to say thank you to Coastal for that excellent write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 No, it's fine....I just didn't get it. It's okay, baby. I welcome your smash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern in a way may be a gradient pattern too. Some signs the SE ridge tries to build a bit. Some similarities to last year, only perhaps maybe with some -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern in a way may be a gradient pattern too. Some signs the SE ridge tries to build a bit. Some similarities to last year, only perhaps maybe with some -NAO? Hey Scott would you say the EURO ensemble mean is more likely to verify in the 11-15 day vs the GEFS wrt the ridge placement over AK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think there might be a little editing of tweets here or at the least misrepresentation of one's own thoughts as coming from WSI. Yup...slightly modified from the original....hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hey Scott would you say the EURO ensemble mean is more likely to verify in the 11-15 day vs the GEFS wrt the ridge placement over AK? Given the forcing, IMHO the EC makes sense. However, there could always be some wiggle room to either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Maybe Mike can talk more about MJO and Kelvin waves since he tracks those in his sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GEFS ensembles from this morning are just wow. My Christmas we see a massive block over the Davis Straights and building heights over Alaska and western Canada. This looks to lock in thru the rest of the run. It should be a good few weeks as Scott alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS saves Christmas....lol. Swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS saves Christmas....lol. SwfeKind of Miller B esque too. Actually turns into a raging blizzard on Christmas day. Sign me up please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Kind of Miller B esque too. Actually turns into a raging blizzard on Christmas day. Sign me up please! "Raging blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Of course the GFS is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Of course the GFS is on its own. Well to be fair it's the only 12Z we know so far at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well to be fair it's the only 12Z we know so far at that time range. It was trying to do that on the 6z ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The pattern across NNE has been real nice with marginal temps able to work with significantly above normal storminess. Dear CoastalWx, Thank you so much for your awesome contributions to this forum that say that I will get snow. Your write-ups add so much value to this forum when they indicate that I will get snow. Your post is a prime example of why AmericanWx is the best online weather forum in the world, because there are world class meteorologists that interact with amateur enthusiasts and provide fantastic analysis and insights into why I will get snow. Keep up the awesome posting and providing the community with your invaluable knowledge (as long as it isn't about me not getting snow - don't be a debbie). Yours truly, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Dear Thank you for the kind words. Please note that this does not mean a stretch like 12/2610-2/2/11 is upon us. This will be a stretch of potentially good chances, but it is important to keep things in perspective. No Debbie, just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Dear CoastalWx, Thank you so much for your awesome contributions to this forum that say that I will get snow. Your write-ups add so much value to this forum when they indicate that I will get snow. Your post is a prime example of why AmericanWx is the best online weather forum in the world, because there are world class meteorologists that interact with amateur enthusiasts and provide fantastic analysis and insights into why I will get snow. Keep up the awesome posting and providing the community with your invaluable knowledge (as long as it isn't about me not getting snow - don't be a debbie). Yours truly, And providing a wonderful balancing mechanism between Winter Wolf and his partner up the road, DIT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Dear Thank you for the kind words. Please note that this does not mean a stretch like 12/2610-2/2/11 is upon us. This will be a stretch of potentially good chances, but it is important to keep things in perspective. No Debbie, just sayin'. Good points. But in all honesty, nobody could have predicted that type of a stretch was ahead either from back on December 16th 2010. Those things just kind of evolve/happen when a pattern is good it seems. If this is half to three quarters as good as that, we'd all be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Dear Thank you for the kind words. Please note that this does not mean a stretch like 12/2610-2/2/11 is upon us. This will be a stretch of potentially good chances, but it is important to keep things in perspective. No Debbie, just sayin'. Good points. But in all honesty, nobody could have predicted that type of a stretch was ahead either from back on December 16th 2010. Those things just kind of evolve/happen when a pattern is good it seems. If this is half to three quarters as good as that, we'd all be happy. Are using some third-party app that makes it so you are posting inside the quotes? It is very difficult to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 He must have deleted the quote bracket and made it look like an extension of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 He must have deleted the quote bracket and made it look like an extension of mine. Or just put his cursor into the quoted text, hit enter a couple times and started typing like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Inception A dream within a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 He must have deleted the quote bracket and made it look like an extension of mine. Or just put his cursor into the quoted text, hit enter a couple times and started typing like this. Im sorry, I didn't do that on purpose. I just hit the quote button and did start typing lol...wasn't on purpose. Hopefully this one is ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 A Ginx sneaky cold today locked in with clouds and inversion. Temps still in low-mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Lol JC in CT. Couldn't have said it better. We await a great stretch because Scott said it will snow. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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