CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah agree john. I could see some interesting solutions in the models in how they handle things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I would like to see how the models trend in the next 72 hours. We have another 24-36 hours before the trough comes onshore across British Columbia. Then we will have a better sampled shortwave and understanding the strength of the disturbance goes a long way into determining the type of storm we will get, also the -NAO in this time frame lends us to believe that the monster Christmas Eve storm will go east. Let's see what the next three days say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I would like to see how the models trend in the next 72 hours. We have another 24-36 hours before the trough comes onshore across British Columbia. Then we will have a better sampled shortwave and understanding the strength of the disturbance goes a long way into determining the type of storm we will get, also the -NAO in this time frame lends us to believe that the monster Christmas Eve storm will go east. Let's see what the next three days say. Hi James, We have to be careful with the NAO. It is in fact not negative leading, it is positive, *BUT* the index is in modality (change), and falling. It ends of negative ... but about 10 days out at CPC and much sooner at CDC. It falls a significant amount in total. From ~ +2 standard deviation to perhaps -.25 SD at CPC, and estimating that to around -1 SD at CDC. That's a fairly large modality so intuitively we should see a shift in the structure of the flow between Chicago and the southern tip of Greenland; and that is important because this mode shift appears westerly based (west vs east base may be less familiar with some individuals...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yea, west based is what we want, so that's good. Need the higher heights or block near Greenland, not Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Some nice looks on the EC ensembles. Even that subtle hint of storms off the EC based on the mass fields after day 11 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Some nice looks on the EC ensembles. Even that subtle hint of storms off the EC based on the mass fields after day 11 or so. They imply a couple of chances between about Dec 29 and Jan 2...pretty damned cold look too. So we'll see what happens. Let's keep that look the next 2-3 days or so and then we'll be inside 10 days on the ensembles...kind of a magic boundary for things becoming a lot more confident in terms of a cold look while legit storm chances may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 They imply a couple of chances between about Dec 29 and Jan 2...pretty damned cold look too. So we'll see what happens. Let's keep that look the next 2-3 days or so and then we'll be inside 10 days on the ensembles...kind of a magic boundary for things becoming a lot more confident in terms of a cold look while legit storm chances may occur. Yeah agree. Would be awesome to eek one out before NY, but regardless, that's a nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 jan 04 incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 jan 04 incoming? Man, I hope not, lol. As impressive as the cold was. Lets put the PV a little further northeast than Caribou, ME this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Man, I hope not, lol. As impressive as the cold was. Lets put the PV a little further northeast than Caribou, ME this time. ec ensembles are damn cold after day 10...that's a pretty frigid look with the PV just getting stronger at the end of the run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How are the EC ensembles for the 24th storm? Plus just an update on my short story, I'm at 10,000 words and 15 pages and just getting to the dates of the storm, so it might take another week before I am done. Anyways thanks for the clear up John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 jan 04 incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How are the EC ensembles for the 24th storm? Plus just an update on my short story, I'm at 10,000 words and 15 pages and just getting to the dates of the storm, so it might take another week before I am done. Anyways thanks for the clear up John. Give it a bit of a rest of the 24th storm. It's a rain producer that will help fuel the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I would say the EC ensembles are definitely further east than they were a couple of days ago, most of them have the primary lweaker in the lakes and then a stronger low forming down in the Carolinas and heading northward near New York City It seems as though phasing a 959 millibar low over the Great Lakes is seeming less likely. there are a few members which have the secondary form off the coastwith a decent snowfall across New York State and northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Prolific Lake Effect Snow inbound and will be in the news again. Time to book that hotel room NOW for those thinking of chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol. hopefully not (though i did enjoy it). pattern kinds had me thinking of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 jan 04 incoming? Sounds good, 19 inches - 8.2 on the month, sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I hope the 77 look works out, my area had at least 6 inches of depth from 12-29 to 3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'd puke over 04. Very cold but little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Sounds good, 19 inches - 8.2 on the month, sign me up Yup. Had school cancelled because of cold that month lol. I'd sign on for that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Sounds good, 19 inches - 8.2 on the month, sign me upMiserable month. I'd rather a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seems like a much less cold pattern than 04. Cold centered more over Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'd puke over 04. Very cold but little snow. There were two storms that were near misses that would have put that month up there in the annals. I would take my chances again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seems like a much less cold pattern than 04. Cold centered more over Midwest Looks like 1977 ish to me but nothing is ever the same but long term dude thats over ur weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There were two storms that were near misses that would have put that month up there in the annals. I would take my chances again.Back White Juan up 100 miles west and we'll talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol. hopefully not (though i did enjoy it). pattern kinds had me thinking of it. You know I would go for that in a heartbeat. I don't even care if I have a 1" pack. My pellet stove needs its first test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 The cold was awesome, but missing out on the snow sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Back White Juan up 100 miles west and we'll talk The Jan 15th OTS storm would have killed this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wasn't that Tippy's nickname in the dorms of Lowell? White Juan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Coldest temp I have ever experienced to my knowledge. -19.4F in Hubbardston Only day I have ever missed work due to it being closed for cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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