ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That's just a product of timing ....the point was the pattern at the end of the transition. Yeah I could see a late January into February 2007 pattern for us...and that would be a pretty good pattern. Thanksfully, the garbage that was 6-8 weeks in Dec 2006-first half of Jan 2007 does not look to be repeated this year. We have had basically a 2-3 week reprieve after the Thanksgiving fun which actually waasn't nearly as warm as the 2006-2007 poor patterns. Consider ourselves plenty fortunate. A lot of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah I could see a late January into February 2007 pattern for us...and that would be a pretty good pattern. Thanksfully, the garbage that was 6-8 weeks in Dec 2006-first half of Jan 2007 does not look to be repeated this year. We have had basically a 2-3 week reprieve after the Thanksgiving fun which actually waasn't nearly as warm as the 2006-2007 poor patterns. Consider ourselves plenty fortunate. A lot of winter left. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Consider ourselves plenty fortunate. A lot of winter left. Yes, about 95%+ left. And didn't you guys say back in October and November that Ninos are usually back loaded? So if that's true, then this very early season is following that idea. Ofcourse there is always the irony that it(winter) never really gets going too. But Im not thinking that's going to happen at this point. I used to say to my family back in the 80's and 90's that it really doesn't snow in SNE until January gets here...for the most part that seems to be happening this year...so far anyway. It wasn't until the new decade(2000 and beyond) that we seemed to get more Dec snow events. Back in the 80's and 90's they didn't seem to happen as often in December. Maybe I'm wrong though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think some people we're spoiled by the Thanksgiving snow and thought we might have a wall to wall pedal to the metal winter like a 1976 - 1977but the reality is many of us interior locations are ahead of climate for the date in terms of snowfall and we could see some more mood like snowfall before the Grinch storm and if the storm is weaker and the secondary low is further east the warm sector may not be quite as impressive and some interior locations could also see some wrap-around snow particularly in the upslope locations on Christmas Day and we will be going into a better pattern looking ahead to January so all in all in reality it hasn't been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think some people we're spoiled by the Thanksgiving snow and thought we might have a wall to wall pedal to the metal winter like a 1976 - 1977but the reality is many of us interior locations are ahead of climate for the date in terms of snowfall and we could see some more mood like snowfall before the Grinch storm and if the storm is weaker and the secondary low is further east the warm sector may not be quite as impressive and some interior locations could also see some wrap-around snow particularly in the upslope locations on Christmas Day and we will be going into a better pattern looking ahead to January so all in all in reality it hasn't been terrible No, I knew December would be meh....but if you asked me whether I thought that I'd make it past xmas with under an inch of snow on the month, then I would have said no. This pattern hasn't been good, but that is also bad luck. I envisioned two, maybe three plowables for my area on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 yeah I had 4.7 inches of snow in November but only 1.5 in Decemberso it definitely felt like taking a step backwards but I feel confident we'll be taking several steps forward in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wasn't 76-77 a bit too suppressed to fully benefit the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wasn't 76-77 a bit too suppressed to fully benefit the east coast? It was pretty darn good in eastern New England...there were several late bloomers and a huge SWFE/overrunning event into the teeth of the cold in early Jan '77 that gave mostly rain to the rest of the I-95 east coast corridor, but latitude saved NE. There was another one that was less intense a week later or so. But yeah, there was also its share of suppression. For NYC-DCA, it was kind of the dreaded rain, frigid cold, rain, frigid cold, then "suppression with maybe a minor event" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wasn't 76-77 a bit too suppressed to fully benefit the east coast? It featured a lot of late bloomers, so e NE really cleaned up, but the rest of the east coast received closer to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 FWIW, that Christmas Eve storm is really causing some issues in the models. The changes in the models from run to run in terms of how they handle the NAO region to near AK are interesting...probably related to how the models handle the blocking. I guess my point is to not run to the keyboard and post in panic or exuberance of what may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 DEN November 9: high 69, low 45, dep +15.8 DEN November 12, high 6, low -13, dep -43.3 DEN November 29: high 72, low 38, dep 22.8 For comparison, for BOS, the high max in November is 83 (Nov 2 1950) and low min -2 (Nov 30, 1875) for a difference of 85º (of course both were outliers, the difference between the second highest and second lowest, 8 and 79, is only 71). Those occurred at different ends of the month and over ~140 years of record. DEN had more than that same differential in the same month (monthly low was the next day at -14), and a swing of 82º in three days (30º of which occurred in 90 minutes). Lol...I arrived in Denver 11/11 and left the 15th. As wintry as I may see ever. I've been there the same time of year with temps over 70. It's right on the edge of the fight between cold east warm west and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 FWIW, that Christmas Eve storm is really causing some issues in the models. The changes in the models from run to run in terms of how they handle the NAO region to near AK are interesting...probably related to how the models handle the blocking. I guess my point is to not run to the keyboard and post in panic or exuberance of what may happen. I think we want it stronger again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think we want it stronger again. If you're talking about the Bermuda high, then I am in complete agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think we want it stronger again. Well location is important too. You don't want a super block pulling into Hudson Bay either, otherwise it's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well location is important too. You don't want a super block pulling into Hudson Bay either, otherwise it's dry. Scott's right. I don't want anything pulling in dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z EURO hour 144 has a 991MB primary just west of northern MI, by hour 150 we have a 983mb secondary right on top of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 975 over the central VT/NH border at hour 156 another tick east from the 0z run which is what you want to see for backend potential I think. Heavy rains for all verbatim to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 FWIW, that Christmas Eve storm is really causing some issues in the models. The changes in the models from run to run in terms of how they handle the NAO region to near AK are interesting...probably related to how the models handle the blocking. I guess my point is to not run to the keyboard and post in panic or exuberance of what may happen. Heading into a more positive direction over the last few runs, May get quite interesting over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 970s would do the trick I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like ski areas, especially VT/NNY would pick up a few inches on the backend on the euro, would go a long way towards helping the recovery from the rains. Keep ticking east and it could become interesting for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well the third event does have chances for more of a snow or mix deal, esp NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the euro pattern happened, it probably would set the stage for a storm to start January. You can see how that trough wants to dig south over the Canadian Praries while the blocking is in place. I know it's day 10, but the process shown is common to getting storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the euro pattern happened, it probably would set the stage for a storm to start January. You can see how that trough wants to dig south over the Canadian Praries while the blocking is in place. I know it's day 10, but the process shown is common to getting storms. I would love a storm somewhere in the long New Year's weekend. Make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Interesting look for storm # 3 on the euro..that's def a colder looking solution. Let's keep that trend going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 FWIW, that Christmas Eve storm is really causing some issues in the models. The changes in the models from run to run in terms of how they handle the NAO region to near AK are interesting...probably related to how the models handle the blocking. I guess my point is to not run to the keyboard and post in panic or exuberance of what may happen. yeah it really effects the entire NA continent...won't be very stable until that gets figured out. the retro idea vs the more nne movement makes a fairly significant difference...especially with respect to timing the overall transition / step-down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice west based -NAO on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 yeah it really effects the entire NA continent...won't be very stable until that gets figured out. the retro idea vs the more nne movement makes a fairly significant difference...especially with respect to timing the overall transition / step-down Please elaborate.....retro would delay the change, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Encouraging model suite today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think if it retros too far it may delay it by pushing the cold further SW. On the other hand, you would want blocking to prevent storm three from cutting. It's a weird predicament to be in. It's part of the reason why I'm not high on storm 3 to do much in terms of snow in SNE..but of course that's a ways out there. It could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Personally I think this needs time to cook before we can tell how it smells ... That EPO going negative is impressive in the Tele's and as discussed earlier it is heavily correlated with the WPO also going negative, such that the NP is changing guard over the next 2 weeks. I don't believe any operational run has a clue what's in store ...AS that begins to unfold, because it will impose all kinds of stress on the flow downstream of the Pac circulation envelope ... and on into N/A. For one, neutralized PNA under a reigning -EPO would insert a +PNAP structure over N/A, and a deep layer cold transport into the western/central Canadian shield, and since the NAO is slipping negative, that's a whopper signal for bringing the goods in whole. So where the f is it? I think we are missing a baser maxim in this ... that times of transition usually come with enhanced modeling error. Folks are impatient that want the winter goods... I understand that. But you gotta take these -EPO at the same time as at SE ridge ...WHILE the NAO goes negative with a giant huge grain bullsh! Operational runs look out of sync with the tempo of the story going forward... and will probably catch on more so than we have been seeing. What the means ... we'll have to see, but I think more cold transport into the NP-GL-NE is the "correction vector" so to speak. ..for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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