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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Could be my general annoyance at recovering from minor surgery that happened Tuesday. My head dressing that needs to be changed daily looks like I've suddenly become more religious....lol.

I look forward to some winter. Hopefully it lasts.

oh yea forgot about that, hope things are ok. Yea it would be nice to see, but in reality its only been 3 weeks of a crappy pattern with a couple of stem winders to keep up the interest. I am still above climo but desperately need something to pop before the ball drops.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted

One of the things I like to look at on the ensembles such as the EWALL page, are the different members. Do not take them verbatim, but they can give clues. They show a variety of things from mixed events to miller As and Bs. So, that tells me what I've assumed, that we'll have some chances it seems. This makes sense given the pattern.

Thanks so much for the lead. Can't wait to explore the page. Of course, it will only promote more questions--which I hope are topical and good from a meteorological perspective. I really like reading what the mets have to say (and the knowledgeable amateurs). Loved this topic since I was a little kid and its very exciting to actually start to understand more about the subject.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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it's too bad that little follow-up piece of southern stream energy kind of mucks up the flow mon/tue. we'll see if that persists.

 

for those, like myself, who like to be emotionally invested in the weather - it would have at least been a bit more interesting to get the Lakes bomb instead of weaker low / fropa 

LOl I am hoping that 959 comes back but I am sure the folks in Michigan upper MW would rather it not muck up there holiday.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Thanks so much for the lead. Can't wait to explore the page. Of course, it will only promote more questions--which I hope are topical and good from a meteorological perspective. I really like reading what the mets have to say (and the knowledgeable amateurs). Loved this topic since I was a little kid and its very exciting to actually start to understand more about the subject.

Junior i highly recommend you take a look at this site and go through the modules. its awesome you have the same disease we all have

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/home.rxml

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

LOl I am hoping that 959 comes back but I am sure the folks in Michigan upper MW would rather it not muck up there holiday.

 

It certainly were amazing solutions there... I saw one GFS ensemble member with something near 950mb!  That thing would have caused tremors ...ahahaha

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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it's too bad that little follow-up piece of southern stream energy kind of mucks up the flow mon/tue. we'll see if that persists.

 

for those, like myself, who like to be emotionally invested in the weather - it would have at least been a bit more interesting to get the Lakes bomb instead of weaker low / fropa 

 

Yeah - certainly trending in a meh direction. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

It certainly were amazing solutions there... I saw one GFS ensemble member with something near 950mb! That thing would have caused tremors ...ahahaha

Yea, I actually was in awe of the meteorology on display in that emphatic solution. Not to mention it could expedite the regime change, too. Speaking of which, does the muted development of the Grinch storm act as a detriment to the degree, or pace of the change? Anyone?
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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I'm in agreement with Scott and Ray on this one. Fact is that if we finish December with little/nothing at the major SNE climo sites, you are now running a fairly substantial deficit that would need to be erased by an above normal JFM to get to climo snows for the winter.

 

It's also just mentally painful for the SNE folk to see NNE well above climo while we are well below climo, but that's life, can't win them all. 

 

Not to pick on you specifically, but you see this type of sentiment from many on here. Unrealistic expectations of climatology.

 

Sure a "snowless" December would create a deficit that would need to be made up for by an above normal JFM. How much would we need to make up? BOS needs 33.5" more snow to meet normals, ORH 46.9". Essentially BOS needs to run +7.4" and ORH +8.6" for JFM to meet normal. You're talking an inch or two per month. Not exactly the impossible dream.

 

To the second point, is it really that painful to see CON and PWM +4.8 and +4.9" for the season so far, when BDL is normal, ORH is -1.2", BOS is -2.4" and PVD is -4.1"?

 

If you want to talk this month specifically, we're all in the crapper. SNE is -3 to -6" for the month, CON and PWM are -3 to -5" for the month.

 

It's really only BTV and CAR that are running any sort of significant surplus through this date. And anybody that lives above 2500 feet in the mountains.

 

Even our buddy in Pittsburg, NH is running deficits this season.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yea, I actually was in awe of the meteorology on display in that emphatic solution. Not to mention it could expedite the regime change, too. Speaking of which, does the muted development of the Grinch storm act as a detriment to the degree, or pace of the change? Anyone?

 

I mean it definitely trended to a less robust -NAO, but I'm not sure if it means anything in the grand scheme of things. Still looks to be some sort of ridge near Greenland. Maybe it made things a bit more hostile for the Mid Atlantic? Too early to say, and perhaps the solution comes back again.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I mean it definitely trended to a less robust -NAO, but I'm not sure if it means anything in the grand scheme of things. Still looks to be some sort of ridge near Greenland. Maybe it made things a bit more hostile for the Mid Atlantic? Too early to say, and perhaps the solution comes back again.

Thanks. Not concerned...just piqued my interest.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

How does a 'pattern' flip, well one way to look at it is through U wind anomalies

Positive values indicate westerly anomalies. You can see how a PAC flow is turned Easterly, How our flow becomes more Westerly, how west flow in Greenland becomes more Easterly, basically you can visualize how blocking of North movement is made, how flow conducive to cold out of Canada appears. I am over simplifying here but this visualizes what these Mets are talking about when they say pattern change.

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Yeah I corrected him, Chris. Do you know how many winters that I went through with less than 12" into Feb? When it comes, it can come quick. December is going about as planned for me, despite it sucking. The ensembles before December even stated solidified that thought.

 

Climo says we're on track. Guidance says we're on track.

 

Yet we're filling Boston Harbor with weenies that have taken swan dives off the Tobin.

 

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted

Any similarities to Jan 2007? That was a pretty classic pattern flip.  Pretty snowless in Dec, until early Jan, then it flipped to a decent back ender

Pretty sure I nearly hit 70 this day .. so no I don't think this year is anywhere close to the horrors of Dec 06 / 1st half of Jan 07

post-144-0-70710600-1418922882_thumb.gif

 

this is early January and the -10c contour is absent from the CONSUS minus lake Superior lol

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Pretty sure I nearly hit 70 this day .. so no I don't think this year is anywhere close to the horrors of Dec 06 / 1st half of Jan 07

jan07torch.gif

this is early January and the -10c contour is absent from the CONSUS minus lake Superior lol

You misunderstood. The aggregate pattern in January 2007 has similarities to what is expected this January....all that is meant. The fact that December 2006 was obscenely warm us irrelevant
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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted

There is no such thing as climo in Denver..lol. Their "climo" is a product of extremes.

 

DEN November 9: high 69, low 45, dep +15.8

DEN November 12, high 6, low -13, dep -43.3

DEN November 29: high 72, low 38, dep 22.8

 

For comparison, for BOS, the high max in November is 83 (Nov 2 1950) and low min -2 (Nov 30, 1875) for a difference of 85º (of course both were outliers, the difference between the second highest and second lowest, 8 and 79, is only 71). Those occurred at different ends of the month and over ~140 years of record. DEN had more than that same differential in the same month (monthly low was the next day at -14), and a swing of 82º in three days (30º of which occurred in 90 minutes). 

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