JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It is still so far away in model time. We should lock something in within the next 2-3 days. A while back there was a brief discussion on whether or not models did better or worse with highly anomalous events, and the consensus seemed to be better. I still think it is probably more of an illusion that makes it seem that way, but if a model is at sub 970mb surface pressure, to not be anything like modeled from a sensible standpoint would be an extremely large quantitative bust. I think the general idea is the general idea with that particular disturbance, but maybe it is only 980 and 150 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 looks like shorts for me on xmas day in halifax.. 50's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well it will cool off at least and turn nice on Christmas. Maybe flurries if we are lucky. Better than rain. Christmas Eve on the other hand....good luck flying in the northeast. Looks bumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well it will cool off at least and turn nice on Christmas. Maybe flurries if we are lucky. Better than rain. Christmas Eve on the other hand....good luck flying in the northeast. Looks bumpy. Looks like that's your fun to deal with next week, should be some fun shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One more I just snapped. Enjoying it. It's all Ive got That's plenty ... looks like snowy winter landscape amid the glee of Xmass... what's the grousing about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well it will cool off at least and turn nice on Christmas. Maybe flurries if we are lucky. Better than rain. Christmas Eve on the other hand....good luck flying in the northeast. Looks bumpy. You could even see how if things really broke right..we could something kind of like what happened today and maybe bring some snows to the coast at the end..or with an Upper disturbance or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That's plenty ... looks like snowy winter landscape amid the glee of Xmass... what's the grousing about I've been really even keeled and steady this cold season. I'm actually impressed with myself. It's others that have melted like a handful of M & M's in your hand. Seems like the pattern is about to take off into a very good direction and our patience shall be rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like that's your fun to deal with next week, should be some fun shifts. Time to be a Grinch and ground everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've been really even keeled and steady this cold season. I'm actually impressed with myself. It's others that have melted like a handful of M & M's in your hand. Seems like the pattern is about to take off into a very good direction and our patience shall be rewarded. You've come close, but these meager light snows have brought you back at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 looks like shorts for me on xmas day in halifax.. 50's? Shorts with temps in the 50s? Look all I was doing was advancing my theory of why a ratter was POSSIBLY potentially en route. And I thought I was clear about saying possible and I will withhold judgment for another 3 weeks. Wtf....can't people express ideas of non epicosity in discussion? I mean I'm on record for an epic winter so if my latest potential comes to fruition it's a huge bust for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Shorts with temps in the 50s? Look all I was doing was advancing my theory of why a ratter was POSSIBLY potentially en route. And I thought I was clear about saying possible and I will withhold judgment for another 3 weeks. Wtf....can't people express ideas of non epicosity in discussion? I mean I'm on record for an epic winter so if my latest potential comes to fruition it's a huge bust for me. Where did this come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You've come close, but these meager light snows have brought you back at times. Yeah these 1-3 inch events have kept me teetering but not tottering. They have been nice..and have provided enough of a white landscape to get me thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Where did this come from? The theory? Trends in ensemble products in the long range. And I understand that it's ebb and flow possibly hence the 3 week deferment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah these 1-3 inch events have kept me teetering but not tottering. They have been nice..and have provided enough of a white landscape to get me thru Nice to see man you sure have weenie jackpotted the 1-3 stuff this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 The theory? Trends in ensemble products in the long range. And I understand that it's ebb and flow possibly hence the 3 week deferment. I mean that statement..lol. I didn't see anybody go harsh on you, only ask how you came to that, including myself. Maybe our resident Positive vibes Ginxy was tougher. I fully support discussing both good and bad. It's a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The theory? Trends in ensemble products in the long range. And I understand that it's ebb and flow possibly hence the 3 week deferment. I am totally impressed with the EPO outlook and the AO too. That SSW sign is also very stout ( hope that comes to fruition) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I mean that statement..lol. I didn't see anybody go harsh on you, only ask how you came to that, including myself. Maybe our resident Positive vibes Ginxy was tougher. I fully support discussing both good and bad. It's a weather forum. I just gave my views, could not see what he was seeing, we discuss we disagree ,don't know why he took it as anyone trying to silence his thoughts. As far as resident positive vibes, just remember who thought back on Nov 3rd that a Grinch storm was going to happen to get us to the promised land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would a met or someone else with strong meteorological knowledge explain if it looks like the pattern change will be delayed/not happen and why. This is not a weenie question. Winters vary from year to year in the region and whining about that fact doesn't change anything. I simply want to know what seems to be going on in the atmosphere to move us one way or the other. Until this morning it seemed like things were tilting toward a major pattern change. There were great explanations for this by Coastal and others. Has it changed and if so, why. (Meteorological/ Climatological explanations, no wishing or whining please) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Phil is not an active member of this forum, just to his own admittance comes in to see if Kevin is getting upset. lol...that was tongue-in-cheek. i don't post here much anymore because i really can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol...that was tongue-in-cheek. i don't post here much anymore because i really can't. LOl I know , was a bait to see you . things are going to turn , you know it, total reshuffle of the deck with chances for everyone besides moose and picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would a met or someone else with strong meteorological knowledge explain if it looks like the pattern change will be delayed/not happen and why. This is not a weenie question. Winters vary from year to year in the region and whining about that fact doesn't change anything. I simply want to know what seems to be going on in the atmosphere to move us one way or the other. Until this morning it seemed like things were tilting toward a major pattern change. There were great explanations for this by Coastal and others. Has it changed and if so, why. (Meteorological/ Climatological explanations, no wishing or whining please) Nothing has changed and there are about a dozen posts with maps and charts showing why. There was a couple of conjecture posts but I have not seen any maps or charts to support theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 One of the things I like to look at on the ensembles such as the EWALL page, are the different members. Do not take them verbatim, but they can give clues. They show a variety of things from mixed events to miller As and Bs. So, that tells me what I've assumed, that we'll have some chances it seems. This makes sense given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Brent nailed it TL;DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Shorts with temps in the 50s? Look all I was doing was advancing my theory of why a ratter was POSSIBLY potentially en route. And I thought I was clear about saying possible and I will withhold judgment for another 3 weeks. Wtf....can't people express ideas of non epicosity in discussion? I mean I'm on record for an epic winter so if my latest potential comes to fruition it's a huge bust for me. ? I was just looking at what the model shows for Halifax.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nothing has changed and there are about a dozen posts with maps and charts showing why. There was a couple of conjecture posts but I have not seen any maps or charts to support theory. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would a met or someone else with strong meteorological knowledge explain if it looks like the pattern change will be delayed/not happen and why. This is not a weenie question. Winters vary from year to year in the region and whining about that fact doesn't change anything. I simply want to know what seems to be going on in the atmosphere to move us one way or the other. Until this morning it seemed like things were tilting toward a major pattern change. There were great explanations for this by Coastal and others. Has it changed and if so, why. (Meteorological/ Climatological explanations, no wishing or whining please) Man...my influence is beyond what it should be...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Man...my influence is beyond what it should be...lol. Did you take your morning dump? , could be the reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 it's too bad that little follow-up piece of southern stream energy kind of mucks up the flow mon/tue. we'll see if that persists. for those, like myself, who like to be emotionally invested in the weather - it would have at least been a bit more interesting to get the Lakes bomb instead of weaker low / fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Everything seems to be going according to plan. Sure we haven't gotten lucky yet in a less than decent pattern, but the transition is set to occur to a pattern more conducive to wintry threats. That's all what we can say at this lead time. In fact, Scott's posts since mid NOV have been dead on with what to expect for a given period. Major props to him so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Did you take your morning dump? , could be the reason Could be my general annoyance at recovering from minor surgery that happened Tuesday. My head dressing that needs to be changed daily looks like I've suddenly become more religious....lol. I look forward to some winter. Hopefully it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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