weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Aleutian low keeps the AK ridge and NW Canada. Yes. But it is retro grading late which worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Some of the models hint at snow on the backside of that system Xmas morning..something similar to this morning..so I guess we can hold out hope for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One thing I can complain about; these f'ing light intensity long duration snowfalls. When it has snowed this year or been cold enough to my visibility has been 5 miles with needles or grains. The other option seems to have been snow, sleet, rimed flakes, and general slop. I just want a good SN+ with dendrites or aggregates the size of watermelons. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've nickeld myself to 10.5 inches so far. I guess that's not bad all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lol wut in the Sam Hell is going on in here, geezus. My God Jerry where did that come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 If anybody wants to complain, cry, bash, do it in the banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If anybody wants to complain, cry, bash, do it in the banter thread please. I thought I was advancing met reasoning with the retrogrding Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Or because it's been a sh*tshow in here. He posted plenty in '11-'12 I don't see glaring issues once we get passed that third storm. You can look at the big scope, but the details of snow can never be determined. Hopefully people understand that, but knowing this place, they do not. Yeah I've been posting less in here...the model to model emotional swings are pretty bad and the general whining has seemed to have gotten a lot worse...no matter how much you warn the masses, it can be liking talking to a post. I don't see anything particularly wrong with the pattern going forward. I think back in November and autumn in general, I was the most ambiguous about the month of December anyway out of any month...so I'm not surprised that it kind of sucks. I would be quite surprised if January/February was crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Some snow, of the non accumulating variety.... Some rain of the wet variety here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah I've been posting less in here...the model to model emotional swings are pretty bad and the general whining has seemed to have gotten a lot worse...no matter how much you warn the masses, it can be liking talking to a post. I don't see anything particularly wrong with the pattern going forward. I think back in November and autumn in general, I was the most ambiguous about the month of December anyway out of any month...so I'm not surprised that it kind of sucks. I would be quite surprised if January/February was crap. I really don't understand how anyone could review today's Ens package and worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow what's wrong with fella this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I thought I was advancing met reasoning with the retrogrding Aleutian low. You are fine, nothing to do with you Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah I've been posting less in here...the model to model emotional swings are pretty bad and the general whining has seemed to have gotten a lot worse...no matter how much you warn the masses, it can be liking talking to a post. I don't see anything particularly wrong with the pattern going forward. I think back in November and autumn in general, I was the most ambiguous about the month of December anyway out of any month...so I'm not surprised that it kind of sucks. I would be quite surprised if January/February was crap. It's beyond awful in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Will is on board, Donald S still is too. Ride the weenie train once we turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I thought I was advancing met reasoning with the retrogrding Aleutian low.you have every right to express reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The best of winters has at least one meh month....it's never a clean sweep. No one discusses February 1996, February 2005, March 2011 or March 1978 because they weren't the inaugural months of the season, and the tone had already been set. Couple the all of the knowledge and info we have at our disposal with the fact that this is the start of the season, and there is a great deal of angst. Wennies didnt have the SAI, SCE or EPI 5 years ago, never mind 5 decades ago, so ee have entered this season with a preconceived notion, and when it isnt innediately met?? Dead ratter. The technology age has fostered the development of a rather disturbing predilection for instant instant gratification among contemporary society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Is there a chance the xmas Storm ends up just a weak cutter instead of a whopper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's beyond awful in here.meh, you know as soon as the first threat appears Will will be all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 meh, you know as soon as the first threat appears Will will be all over it. That does not mean the way people post will improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The best of winters has at least one meh month....it's never a clean sweep. No one discusses February 1996, February 2005, March 2011 or March 1978 because they weren't the inaugural months of the season, and the tone had already been set. Couple the all of the knowledge and info we have at our disposal with the fact that this is the start of the season, and there is a great deal of angst. Wennies didnt have the SAI, SCE or EPI 5 years ago, never mind 5 decades ago, so ee have entered this season with a preconceived notion, and when it isnt innediately met?? Dead ratter. The technology age has fostered the development of a rather disturbing predilection for instant instant gratification among contemporary society. You could even add Dec '77...ok in the interior but garbage on the coast (sound familiar to the start of this winter?)...pattern was a bit colder that month, but still...no warning shots of an epic winter until well into January that season. I'd probably swap Feb 2005 with Dec 2004 too...crap month until Boxing Day...Feb at least had a lot of snow even if it's share of taint. But yeah, your general point if very true. Also, do you remember how much snow people had at this point in 2010? Most people hadn't recorded measurable yet, and if they did, it was under 2 inches. Really only '76-'77 had a pretty awesome pattern almost the whole way...but it did have an epic thaw in the first half of Mar '77 before going out like a Lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Good point. There have been some pretty nasty things going on in here. Any hope that 3rd event could be more wintry? Since the "first" system has devolved into a non-event, I think we should used dates and just say the Christmas event? Or am I confusing systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 if you want blocking then hope for a cutter that's as strong as possible. more PV disruption Is there a chance the xmas Storm ends up just a weak cutter instead of a whopper? You want the whopper, you need the whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 meh, you know as soon as the first threat appears Will will be all over it. Of course I will be...but he's right. It's been awful in here thus far. I've never seen this forum so weenie-ish (the bad kind of weenie-ish..not the fun kind). We've usually been a bit more even-keeled. I'm not saying the occasional meltdowns like in 2009-2010 don't happen when missing HECS by a razor...but just in general from a model to model basis when talking long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You want the whopper, you need the whopper.I know. I'd like to supersize it if possible. The worst outcome of all would be showers and some winds to 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Of course I will be...but he's right. It's been awful in here thus far. I've never seen this forum so weenie-ish (the bad kind of weenie-ish..not the fun kind). We've usually been a bit more even-keeled. I'm not saying the occasional meltdowns like in 2009-2010 don't happen when missing HECS by a razor...but just in general from a model to model basis when talking long range. You've expressed it, Scott has, Phil has, I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just throwing this out there, but you don't have to have a textbook Pacific to get a good storm. You do want some sort of a -NAO. This is prior to the Blizz of '78. Yes I'm sure this example raises in eyebrow, but look at the GOAK. However, ridging near AK and a -NAO. It's ok if we don't have a ridge in the GOAK that is strong enough for tropical fish to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 As Scott said earlier, this may end up as a FROPA for Christmas Eve. Let's see that system bomb out and occlude over Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Of course I will be...but he's right. It's been awful in here thus far. I've never seen this forum so weenie-ish (the bad kind of weenie-ish..not the fun kind). We've usually been a bit more even-keeled. I'm not saying the occasional meltdowns like in 2009-2010 don't happen when missing HECS by a razor...but just in general from a model to model basis when talking long range. Always happens when there is nothing going on, little hyperbolic today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The forum bashing doesn't help matters. We literally get no reports in here. If there's ridiculous posts being made feel free to report a few. With that said, the crack down is on. We try to be lenient with the moderating, but sometimes the bad posts get out of control. I advise everyone to be in a stable mental state before hitting "post". If you see some of your complaining or weenie posts missing, take it as a hint. If you're getting moderated quite a bit I'll try to swing a PM explaining what the problem is. Let's have fun, but save the drama for your mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 You do get the sense of wanting the classic Rockies ridge there which is important, but don't get worried if heights lower near the GOAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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