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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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Yeah long range doesn't look so good this morning. What's really telling is Will hasn't posted on it at all..so there's something he doesn't like

 

Or because it's been a sh*tshow in here. He posted plenty in '11-'12 I don't see glaring issues once we get passed that third storm. You can look at the big scope, but the details of snow can never be determined. Hopefully people understand that, but knowing this place, they do not.

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Or because it's been a sh*tshow in here. He posted plenty in '11-'12 I don't see glaring issues once we get passed that third storm. You can look at the big scope, but the details of snow can never be determined. Hopefully people understand that, but knowing this place, they do not.

Good point. There have been some pretty nasty things going on in here. 

Any hope that 3rd event could be more wintry?

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Good point. There have been some pretty nasty things going on in here.

Any hope that 3rd event could be more wintry?

There is always a chance this far out, but I still think it's more a liquid event IMO. Honestly, things in terms of transition are typical. The storm modeled yesterday is more of your typical sou'easter and may not cause that big -NAO that models had yesterday, but it's still there. Maybe it goes back to a bomb today. I don't know. That low ahead of it sort of messes with it.

If weenies are expecting a change to the pattern we had in '10-'11 they will be plenty disappointed. It's a change. Whether we have 4" or 40" in January, nobody knows. The crying and weenieing in here needs to stop.

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I don't sense a dead ratter at all. I don't know where people are getting that. I do sense.that the odds of a blockbuster are slip sliding away....will reaccess at the end of the month/year.

If the pattern does come together I can see a really good stretch, but like you said a month blown hurts chances of a blockbuster...hopefully we can get to my avg or a bit more..

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I don't sense a dead ratter at all. I don't know where people are getting that. I do sense.that the odds of a blockbuster are slip sliding away....will reaccess at the end of the month/year.

I'm not liking where the Aleutian low is starting to go near the end of the ensembles. We'll see but I'm starting to sense one of those seasons where the guidance is much better than reality. I'll give it another 3 weeks as mentioned.

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I'm not liking where the Aleutian low is starting to go near the end of the ensembles. We'll see but I'm starting to sense one of those seasons where the guidance is much better than reality. I'll give it another 3 weeks as mentioned.

The Aleutian low keeps the AK ridge and NW Canada.

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