powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't buy it. BOS loses it if there are onshore winds but most December snowy months happen due to north or NNE. East winds tube me as much as it does BOS. If it were ocean influence how come climo temps aren't all that much different BOS vs say chestnut hill? Yeah I have no idea, was just musing. You guys obviously know your climate much better than someone throwing wild ssa guesses out of northern VT, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ok this is crazy but maybe Kevin was on to something, the 3 days before and 3 after Christmas all exceeded 1 inch in depth more times than the 24th,25th , someone can check it themselves but seems pure luck has a statistical fact . Could the Grinch theory be real? I can't see any reason why this could be anything other than random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ORH in 122 years 45 times Would've thought ORH to be higher than that for 1" of snow depth on 12/25 at 1,000ft. Like at least 50% vs. 35-40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 15/78 Okay thanks, 19%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 33 27 27 33 Number of days exceeding 1 inch Dec 23rd 24 25 26 in Boston in 123 years of record,remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would've thought ORH to be higher than that for 1" of snow depth on 12/25 at 1,000ft. Like at least 50% vs. 35-40%.well remember ORH record keeping sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I can't see any reason why this could be anything other than random.of course but lol at the stats, Dr Seuss had a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ok this is crazy but maybe Kevin was on to something, the 3 days before and 3 after Christmas all exceeded 1 inch in depth more times than the 24th,25th , someone can check it themselves but seems pure luck has a statistical fact . Could the Grinch theory be real? I was curious after I started thinking back to Christmas holiday periods when it didn't rain at the ski resort...I remember a lot more weeks that included some rain than snowstorms. But maybe that's just because we are more sensitive to rain events so I remember those more. But its something that like everyone in the ski industry almost assumes will happen for whatever reason, haha. Wouldn't surprise me if Xmas week somehow randomly has more rain events than the 3rd week of December lol. December 2012 still stands out as a remarkable week with like two snowstorms during that vacation week. December 2002 was great too. But lots more I remember being "interesting" more so than whitewash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Of course maybe the observer took Christmas eve and day off. That's the problem with people's obsession with stats, only as good as the data put in, remember that alarmists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How about limiting the data set to the past 40 years? That encompasses most weenies life experience and better reflects current climate regimes. Eg: 2/9/34 Boston was -18. I wonder if that's even possible now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 with all signs pointing 970 or below somebody is going to get smoked. There's Tips Cleveland Bomb 959 on latest GFS.. haha if only 500+ miles east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Storm 3 ( 27th-28) looks so close on GFS, still long way to go but that could be nice for interior as the airmass gets colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 How about limiting the data set to the past 40 years? That encompasses most weenies life experience and better reflects current climate regimes. Eg: 2/9/34 Boston was -18. I wonder if that's even possible now.I did from 1964 on already 7/49 only 14% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 gfs looks nice and cold for NYE and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I did from 1964 on already 7/49 only 14% Now I wonder what the other sites are? I'd do it myself but won't have time for at least a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Storm 3 ( 27th-28) looks so close on GFS, still long way to go but that could be nice for interior as the airmass gets colder and colder. Thats not a horrible look. Verbatim it would flip everyone over to snow. I doubt we know how anything shakes out really until that beast on Christmas passes. Thats really gunma shake things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Tonight's gfs really reinforces what Coastal alluded to that the storm after the big cutter could be the third (or second) transition storm but clearly it would have the best potential to be wintry as of now. A lot of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 959 on latest GFS.. haha if only 500+ miles east.. No way, let's get a Midwest equivalent of a winter hurricane to flip the pattern favorable for the NE peeps. Regime change imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ok this is crazy but maybe Kevin was on to something, the 3 days before and 3 after Christmas all exceeded 1 inch in depth more times than the 24th,25th , someone can check it themselves but seems pure luck has a statistical fact . Could the Grinch theory be real? I've told everyone I know for years that I always get Great snow from the 5th to the 20th, then Christmas sucks, and then Right after Christmas Winter Really gets going. Christmas ALWAYS sucks here even if before Christmas was awesome like the 2007-2009 Decembers of awesomeness. Even if there is snow, it's yucky that day. The 2011 Christmas was the miracle. The year with No snow outside of the disaster of a storm in October had snow falling JUST on Christmas MORNING and it was Not predicted at all! And When I went on the NWS website as it was snowing it said nothing about snow. A Miracle. The only good thing about 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ggem is a warm coastal for xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 December is a fall month lately....Gezus Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 December is a fall month lately....Gezus Christ I wouldn't say that...December 2012 had 12.9" of snow and December 2013 12.7" at BDL. However, December 2012 was +3.7F after a horrific +5.9F in December 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I wouldn't say that...December 2012 had 12.9" of snow and December 2013 12.7" at BDL. However, December 2012 was +3.7F after a horrific +5.9F in December 2011. We toss if she's not giving it up when she's supposed to.....but thanks....god damn December....F U....last year Fella walked me back from the cliff....think I need that afain cuz I'm starting to get pizzed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Models shifting eastward with the secondary low pressure center on latest guidance, 00z EURO, GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Boy, outside of NNE, this winter really seems to be setting up as a wire-to-wire one. Wire-to-wire disappointment. At least this year featured a COC summer. 32.1/28, breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Models shifting eastward with the secondary low pressure center on latest guidance, 00z EURO, GGEM I might be missing it as I only have the 24 hour increments, but it seems the EC Ens don't really show a secondary development. As far as the OP run goes, it shows running somewhere between Danbury and Albany. Might as well be Detroit. Let's see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I might be missing it as I only have the 24 hour increments, but it seems the EC Ens don't really show a secondary development. As far as the OP run goes, it shows running somewhere between Danbury and Albany. Might as well be Detroit. Let's see what today brings. It gets washed out a bit that far out into the extended on the mean, but there's a hint of it there.There's a lot of overanalysis out there for op runs past d4-5 right now. Part of it is because it's been so snowless lately and weens are frustrated and losing patience. Some have to reel it in though, because the board was unreadable at times yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm enjoying my coating attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm enjoying my coating attm We didn't get a flake here as near as I can see. Looking at the post and image that Mitch put up, perhaps I fell into the piece of East Slope fail while west slope and valley did okay. I wonder if they got anything in Gfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nice surprise this morning. 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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