Whineminster Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been waiting for the pattern to shift for weeks....and it keeps getting pushed out further....sou'easters for the remainder of the winter in coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's 50/50 here. What, wait I missed this bit of climo I think its 60% for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been waiting for the pattern to shift for weeks....and it keeps getting pushed out further....sou'easters for the remainder of the winter in coming... coastal, hm, and a bunch of others have been saying to wait until after xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been waiting for the pattern to shift for weeks....and it keeps getting pushed out further....sou'easters for the remainder of the winter in coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Timing is everything here. If this cutter were just two weeks prior. We all could be roastin nuts around the open fire while jackfrost nips at our nose right about now. November was anomalous for obvious reasons, sugarplums started dancing and proclamations went far and wide. A BIG WINTER INBOUND. Now you don't seem so loud. Relax....it would be one thing if anyone had control to make the wishing a reality. Snow is the mantra that twists the you know what. IT is what IT IS and nothing is going to change that. Enjoy what you have, good health, a house, families. The things in life that are important. Weather is a diversion to most, at least for myself. Like in life a model run or the cusp of a pattern change really means nothing because all can change in time. Take what comes, enjoy the moment. RELAX and PEACE out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Timing is everything here. If this cutter were just two weeks prior. We all could be roastin nuts around the open fire while jackfrost nips at our nose right about now. November was anomalous for obvious reasons, sugarplums started dancing and proclamations went far and wide. A BIG WINTER INBOUND. Now you don't seem so loud. Relax....it would be one thing if anyone had control to make the wishing a reality. Snow is the mantra that twists the you know what. IT is what IT IS and nothing is going to change that. Enjoy what you have, good health, a house, families. The things in life that are important. Weather is a diversion to most, at least for myself. Like in life a model run or the cusp of a pattern change really means nothing because all can change in time. Take what comes, enjoy the moment. RELAX and PEACE out. Kind of think everyone knows this dude and the whole meltdown thing is overblown, pretty sure no one values snow more than family etc. i don't even know how that whole fallacy was started today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Timing is everything here. If this cutter were just two weeks prior. We all could be roastin nuts around the open fire while jackfrost nips at our nose right about now. November was anomalous for obvious reasons, sugarplums started dancing and proclamations went far and wide. A BIG WINTER INBOUND. Now you don't seem so loud. Relax....it would be one thing if anyone had control to make the wishing a reality. Snow is the mantra that twists the you know what. IT is what IT IS and nothing is going to change that. Enjoy what you have, good health, a house, families. The things in life that are important. Weather is a diversion to most, at least for myself. Like in life a model run or the cusp of a pattern change really means nothing because all can change in time. Take what comes, enjoy the moment. RELAX and PEACE out. Amen. Well said. Like Forkys been saying, let this cut hard to set up the goods for later. Good food, drink, friends and family should be plenty of distraction until then. (And my last two finals ugh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The only concern I have is the SE ridge at Day 10...it does appear to be progressive and that it will be pushed off the coast but the monster ridge over AK is a bit more west than you want sometimes for the East Coast...far enough it could enable a SE ridge to become a problem. I'd have to wait til I see ensembles or beyond Day 10 1st off, great job in here. Really putting down some solid disco. 2md, the ens don't show a SE ridge. I think the op was doing its southwest holding back too much energy. Ens are frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro Ens have sub 980 low over the Lakes. I guess that east trend ain't happening It could very well trend east. The issue is the end result might be the same for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 1st off, great job in here. Really putting down some solid disco. 2md, the ens don't show a SE ridge. I think the op was doing its southwest holding back too much energy. Ens are frigid. porno stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's 50/50 here. So you have a 50% chance of a snow melting cutter around each Xmas. Or something is happening to make it so you don't have snow on your yard 50% of the time in late-December. That's definitely not some atmospheric conspiracy. That's a coin flip. Luck. Climo. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The EURO ensembles have a 979mb low over Toronto, Canada. That is very low for an ensemble forecast mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It could very well trend east. The issue is the end result might be the same for us. exactly what i was thinking. A 200 mile shift either way from the current depiction isnt changing the sensible weather outcome here. Its still wet. This is where the cutter perception idea comes into play. There is a much larger margin for error for a storm thats cutting because it wont change the outcome of our weather as opposed to a storm that has to track pretty close to the benchmark to give us a good snow event. 200 miles on a cutter, nobody notices. 200 miles on a BM snowstorm, people notice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 So you have a 50% chance of a snow melting cutter around each Xmas. Or something is happening to make it so you don't have snow on your yard 50% of the time in late-December. That's definitely not some atmospheric conspiracy. That's a coin flip. Luck. Climo. Whatever. its 57% in Hartford so hes way over 60% which totally defeats his theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Model holding back the energy for the 21/22nd storm and actually have an extra packet of energy within the southern stream come up the coast, but out to sea still as the trough isn't exactly ideal for another rain storm to hit the region before the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 heavy rain on a stout water laden Stowe snow pack to frigid cold means big ice on the slopes Christmas day, you think that is ugly down here, holy moly that is a disaster for ski areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 heavy rain on a stout water laden Stowe snow pack to frigid cold means big ice on the slopes Christmas day, you think that is ugly down here, holy moly that is a disaster for ski areas Doesn't exactly have a frigid cold look right after though. Seems like it's a gradual process to cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Jesus BUF FTW on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Doesn't exactly have a frigid cold look right after though. Seems like it's a gradual process to cool down. Doesn't exactly have a frigid cold look right after though. Seems like it's a gradual process to cool down. in the mts? looks like it drops below freezing that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 heavy rain on a stout water laden Stowe snow pack to frigid cold means big ice on the slopes Christmas day, you think that is ugly down here, holy moly that is a disaster for ski areas Ski areas know how to deal with it. It happens almost every year it seems. Heck it rained twice last holiday break. Nothing different from any other Christmas week, lol. Luckily this isn't 1989, and grooming and snowmaking can recover it in a couple days for the majority of the folks. The real trick is what it is 2-3 days after Xmas. That's when it gets real busy, so having this come in earlier would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS tries to bring the surface low bomb east, now towards ALbany, NY instead of Toronto, Canada. It 's warm because the Great Lakes arctic jet disturbance is strong and produces a strong surface low that moves into central Canada. If we can get rid of that storm we would have a much colder coastal storm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ski areas know how to deal with it. It happens almost every year it seems. Heck it rained twice last holiday break. Nothing different from any other Christmas week, lol. Luckily this isn't 1989, and grooming and snowmaking can recover it in a couple days for the majority of the folks. The real trick is what it is 2-3 days after Xmas. That's when it gets real busy, so having this come in earlier would be better. Ice sucks, you know it I know it, sketchy is sketchy but I was talking about Christmas day, I know a lot of my peeps are going away this Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Holy Moly does that turn the atmosphere inside out over in the EPO and NAO regions. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow, wait until the tropical tidbits 18z GFS 500 anomalies comes out. Just textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18z GFS tries to bring the surface low bomb east, now towards ALbany, NY instead of Toronto, Canada. It 's warm because the Great Lakes arctic jet disturbance is strong and produces a strong surface low that moves into central Canada. If we can get rid of that storm we would have a much colder coastal storm on our hands. James, whether its Albany of Toronto is purely noise at this advanced range. "If we can get rid of that iceberg, we would have a much more serene maiden voyage on our hands". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Holy Moly does that turn the atmosphere inside out over in the EPO and NAO regions. Wow. #everythinghappensforareasontoeverydisadvantagethereisacorrespondingadvantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 #everythinghappensforareasontoeverydisadvantagethereisacorrespondingadvantage I like seeing this stuff play out. Kind of cool from a met standpoint. I know timing stinks near Christmas, but it may be a hell of a storm that changes the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 in the mts? looks like it drops below freezing that night <32F doesn't equal frigid cold IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Last and final judgement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I like seeing this stuff play out. Kind of cool from a met standpoint. I know timing stinks near Christmas, but it may be a hell of a storm that changes the game. Life is all about perspective, man....if the Grinch alters the hemispheric landscape, which I think everyone here would agree was desperately needed, then lets do this. We'll get our Christmas snows, but it wasn't meant to be this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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