CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Gotcha. Thanks. I was kind of wondering about the "somehow" in your answer. Maybe NAO takes a quicker dive then expected, ridging out west slides a little more east and sharpens the trough digging through Ohio Valley -- but that might lead to a more wound-up solution? I'm not sure what variables in play could contribute to a jog of the low track more southeast. Anyways, love reading yours as well as other members' analysis -- you in particular do a nice job articulating things that are very hard to describe. The -NAO could force it more south, but I think that scenario is losing some traction. Even if it did, it has a marginal atmosphere so you'd be recycling garbage air again. It's one of those things where perhaps if that scenario did work out, it would flip back to snow at the end as it wobbles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 When do you start getting excited about the Screaming Sou'easter and ditching the white Christmas fantasy.Hey I will say.. If the chances of this not being frozen are real.. And I think it's way too early to rule that out,, then I would sign up right now for a screamer with high winds. If that happens , gonna be a lot of upset families celebrating in the dark .. With Santa stuck in chimney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The X-mas low on the 12z GFS bottoms out at 958mb on the north side of Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Just for the record the term "SWFE" is not found in the dead scrolls of AME does not mean its a valid and appropriate description of an event. I look at it, take for instant the term "tweet" Websters Dic adds words every year. If someone of notoriety wrote a paper and petitioned it surely would be added to the AME Glossary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hey I will say.. If the chances of this not being frozen are real.. And I think it's way too early to rule that out,, then I would sign up right now for a screamer with high winds. If that happens , gonna be a lot of upset families celebrating in the dark .. With Santa stuck in chimney There is something not quite right in saying you would "sign up" for it followed by "gonna be a lot of upset families celebrating in the dark.... etc". Really, on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The storm modeled is reminiscent of a major system that rained and winded us 12/23/93 that turned the pattern or did about 80% of the work to reverse a sub par December. I think that one was a classic apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The storm modeled is reminiscent of a major system that rained and winded us 12/23/93 that turned the pattern or did about 80% of the work to reverse a sub par December. I think that one was a classic apps runner. Everything's Leon with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GFS 960mb in the Great Lakes, 12z GGEM 960mb in the Gulf Of Maine....................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There is something not quite right in saying you would "sign up" for it followed by "gonna be a lot of upset families celebrating in the dark.... etc". Really, on Christmas? I agree. But if that thing goes down to 958mb like the GFS has, he may get his wish and be in the dark with the rest of the people on Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No weenie snows on the backside I guess. I grasp at straws to see flakes fly on Christmas while Santa stops dead in his tracks as he approaches the GL region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 the gfs shows exactly what you want from a cutter... cyclonic wave breaking event that triggers a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Everything's Leon with you. Everything! I think Leon visited last year but the 20 year cycle of his return means I have to make it into my late 80s. I may move warm by then..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 the gfs shows exactly what you want from a cutter... cyclonic wave breaking event that triggers a -nao Yep. Granted it's the op, but textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That would be storm 3 of transition, and I would not rule it out. However, that also is the best chance of a more wintry scenario of the three IMHO. Looks like there's a lesser meat grinder then... nothing like two winters ago, but tough to really ride due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The GFS has winds at 850 over 90+ knots over parts of NY state and into new England at hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Watch what happens to the Davis Straits after hr 168. When people talk about wave breaking etc, that's it. Classic. This is an example. Also remember it's a model projection. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121712/gfs_z500a_nhem.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yep. Granted it's the op, but textbook. the ensembles have been hinting at it for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM has the low for Christmas transferring just east of LI and then bombing out in SNE.Way different than the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM has the low for Christmas transferring just east of LI and then bombing out in SNE. Way different than the GFS and Euro can u not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There is something not quite right in saying you would "sign up" for it followed by "gonna be a lot of upset families celebrating in the dark.... etc". Really, on Christmas?While I believe a colder , south scenario is far more likely at this stage, yes I would not be unhappy with the GFS depiction. I wish no harm to anyone or anything. It's just that I live for events such as that with regards to weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 That's the way to help flip back to snow. Airmass ahead of it would be toast, but that probably would change things back if it throws enough moisture back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 While I believe a colder , south scenario is far more likely at this stage, yes I would not be unhappy with the GFS depiction. I wish no harm to anyone or anything. It's just that I live for events such as that with regards to weather So ruin your own kids Christmas in favor of your damage fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM has the low for Christmas transferring just east of LI and then bombing out in SNE. Way different than the GFS and Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 While I believe a colder , south scenario is far more likely at this stage, yes I would not be unhappy with the GFS depiction. I wish no harm to anyone or anything. It's just that I live for events such as that with regards to weather Kevin, I'm a historian. I've taught history for years, writing a second thesis on Stalin and Khrushchev's persecutions; I would in no way want to go back and experience a year in the gulag or have at a chance for the "historic" experience of encountering the ISIL lunatics. So, I guess I can't really understand where you are coming from. Let's hope Santa makes it down the chimney and everyone gets to have the lights on for the holidays. On topic, what to you think of the GGEM fantasy event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 While I believe a colder , south scenario is far more likely at this stage, yes I would not be unhappy with the GFS depiction. I wish no harm to anyone or anything. It's just that I live for events such as that with regards to weather Hope you have a generator when the Christmas lights turn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Kevin, I'm a historian. I've taught history for years, writing a second thesis on Stalin and Khrushchev's persecutions; I would in no way want to go back and experience a year in the gulag or have at a chance for the "historic" experience of encountering the ISIL lunatics. So, I guess I can't really understand where you are coming from. Let's hope Santa makes it down the chimney and everyone gets to have the lights on for the holidays. Wait, what? I thought you were an eight year old with advanced typing skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wait, what? I thought you were an eight year old with advanced typing skills. I taught from ages four through seven and finished my first degrees at ages two and three. You know, one of those, idiot-savants. Was always into weather, so I've taken to troubling this board with my questions. Here's one: Why is the GGEM so bad and why do they keep it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 While I believe a colder , south scenario is far more likely at this stage Why? Because the OHV doesn't get snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Now this is what you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I taught from ages four through seven and finished my first degrees at ages two and three. You know, one of those, idiot-savants. Was always into weather, so I've taken to troubling this board with my questions. Here's one: Why is the GGEM so bad and why do they keep it going? I've wondered the same about that model! I look forward to attending your birthday party, and meeting Ironman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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