SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This early rough stretch would be more tolerable if not for the disaster depicted around the 24th. I could do without the piss in the eggnog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 yes taking a look at the weather bell telleconnections forecasts, I see the AO and NAO going negative EPO going negative the PNA negative but trending positive. The CFS v2 looks cold throughout January. With El Nino and an active subtropical jet I don't see any reason why we can't deliver. Can anyone explain perhaps what effect if any the MJO will have on the January pattern ? Neg PNA doesn't bother me if the AO and NAO are also negative....southern stream ejections and SWFEs. We don't need a +PNA all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Let me say that I would much much much rather miss out to Ray, Kevin, Scott, Jerry and Steve than to Chicago. Aside from the fact that I like you guys, selfishly I can drive down there and participate if I want. Just like I can drive over to New London or Sunapee and be in mid winter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Interesting ... It's been awhile since the Great Lakes have had a classic Autumn stem-winder bomb like that. The 06z GFS is classical looking for early phaser and wrap up like you read about in lore. There's been a few of them over the last couple hundred years. "The Wreck Of The Edmond Fitzgerald" song, by Gordon Lightfoot, was inspired by one. There was also the Armistice Day storm of 1944 (more western Lakes...); but there was a huge one known as the "Big Blow" back in 1913 (I think). There are others, such as the "Cleveland Super Bomb" of Jan, 1978. It may just be their turn, re the Xmas amplitude... Too early to be certain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 My bad, guess the data set I was looking at was wonky given that I just checked again and it has ~85" for 95-96 and below 100 for those other 2 as well. Anyone have a better source for seasonal records so that this doesn't happen again? ORH had some issues for snowfall data in the 1995-2003 period after they transitioned to ASOS. With the help of Nws I reconstructed the years that had poor data and we tried to get it into the ncdc database but were unsuccessful. But I have the missing years all archived. I really should get them up on a webpage somewhere. 2012-2013 you can just add up the f6 data on the box climate page. They haven't updated ORH on the yellow background monthly snowfall page since January 2011 though. Also that 87.5 wasn't 95-96, but 96-97 instead..the 97.9 is what they have for 95-96 but it isn't correct. The february and March 1996 totals are badly off. You'll notice that the 02-03 season is missing data for the prolific 30"+ December and also some decent November snowfall. Minor errors in March 2003 round out the missing 43" that year. 2000-2001 also cracked 100" but not 105". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 in other words, it might not be a trough the overwhelms via a southward sinking strong PV? The PNA will provide diving shortwaves into a trough, the NAO will slow things down a bit and help provide cold air and the SE ridge will help to get storms to come north. I would add that an active southern storm will provide the chance for phases and Miller A storms so we don't have to depend on clippers and Miller Bs. Is this right? Well the PNA isn't positive which is why we sort of are a weak SE ridge. If the trough can tilt SW like models have out in the srn plains, then that can eject s/w's east and you have anything from a SWFE, to Miller As and even miller Bs if it ends up redeveloping off the Delmarva or something. If the -NAO is strong enough, it may try to force a some good phasing with any s/w traversing the CONUS with the energy coming south from the PV near Hudson Bay. These are just examples. I don't think you can say exactly how it will spell out at this stage. Ironically the sub heading of this thread said weenies rejoice and the opposite seems to be happening lol. #throwshandsinair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Let me say that I would much much much rather miss out to Ray, Kevin, Scott, Jerry and Steve than to Chicago. Aside from the fact that I like you guys, selfishly I can drive down there and participate if I want. Just like I can drive over to New London or Sunapee and be in mid winter right now. "Like".... really... If the Cape gets slammed from an off coastal storm, I can talk to my in laws (or go down to experience it). We all love it our own backyards but why wish someone else to get screwed out of the experience of a good snowstorm just because you miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well the PNA isn't positive which is why we sort of are a weak SE ridge. If the trough can tilt SW like models have out in the srn plains, then that can eject s/w's east and you have anything from a SWFE, to Miller As and even miller Bs if it ends up redeveloping off the Delmarva or something. If the -NAO is strong enough, it may try to force a some good phasing with any s/w traversing the CONUS with the energy coming south from the PV near Hudson Bay. These are just examples. I don't think you can say exactly how it will spell out at this stage. Ironically the sub heading of this thread said weenies rejoice and the opposite seems to be happening lol. #throwshandsinair We will rejoice...it is coming. It is now inside 10 days and it is real. Bring the ohio valley edmund fitzgerald, cleveland lightfoot wound up, winter hacy sack Tip winter golfing stemwinder and lets get this behind us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I know most of the acronyms on this board but I haven't figured out SWFE... shortwave something or other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Southwest Flow Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Southwest Flow Event Thanks, Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Thanks, Kevin These are when we have screaming SW flow aloft from day 800mb-500mb. Typical overrunning events that sometimes feature a mix or taint, but other times can be nice 8-12" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 These are when we have screaming SW flow aloft from day 800mb-500mb. Typical overrunning events that sometimes feature a mix or taint, but other times can be nice 8-12" events. These are the storms that come along with a surface cold front stalled south of Long Island and moisture gets pushed up over it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 So what happens if that southern stream low keeps speeding up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We should probably add that the term and it's abbreviation, 'SWFE', are endemic in this blogosphere, and is not recognized in the Meteorological Glossary maintained by the American Meteorological Society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We should probably add that the term and it's abbreviation, 'SWFE', are endemic in this blogosphere, and is not recognized in the Meteorological Glossary maintained by the American Meteorological Society. Sig-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 this is what a screaming sou'easter looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 this is what a screaming sou'easter looks like I thought the QPF plot had to strongly mirror Evard Munch's "The Scream" in order to qualify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Any chance of snow flakes on the backside of this at all in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 So what happens if that southern stream low keeps speeding up? Well, the GFS-Parakeet answered that question nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We should probably add that the term and it's abbreviation, 'SWFE', are endemic in this blogosphere, and is not recognized in the Meteorological Glossary maintained by the American Meteorological Society. Is Archembault event? Or NORLUN? Or Trowal? I'm serious... I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That would bring us our 60-70 mph southeast winds. Trees would be torn down. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 The GFS op is pretty much textbook display of wave breaking and forming a -NAO and -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Do we get one more cutter around 12/27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If it can somehow move underneath SNE like the euro op had yesterday, than NNE would clean up and even down into interior high elevated areas of Mass. It still could happen like that and we are very far out so I wouldn't get too worked up. For SNE, we need a lot more help. Maybe it can slide underneath and bring more frozen for the far interior or something. Just seems like a situation where I wouldn't expect much. Gotcha. Thanks. I was kind of wondering about the "somehow" in your answer. Maybe NAO takes a quicker dive then expected, ridging out west slides a little more east and sharpens the trough digging through Ohio Valley -- but that might lead to a more wound-up solution? I'm not sure what variables in play could contribute to a jog of the low track more southeast. Anyways, love reading yours as well as other members' analysis -- you in particular do a nice job articulating things that are very hard to describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That would bring us our 60-70 mph southeast winds. Trees would be torn down. Merry Christmas When do you start getting excited about the Screaming Sou'easter and ditching the white Christmas fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Do we get one more cutter around 12/27? That would be storm 3 of transition, and I would not rule it out. However, that also is the best chance of a more wintry scenario of the three IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Is Archembault event? Or NORLUN? Or Trowal? I'm serious... I don't know Trowal is but the other two are not. It doesn't matter anyway. At least in the sense if discussing physically the meteorology of the topic at hand. Well for some perhaps it bothers them but if we are describing what is happening and the science is sound, then I am not bothered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 this is what a screaming sou'easter looks like You can't make an omelet without cracking a few eggs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That would be storm 3 of transition, and I would not rule it out. However, that also is the best chance of a more wintry scenario of the three IMHO. Yeah at least then we should have much better cold fight and a colder airmass to our north and over us as an antecedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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