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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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WHat a disrespectful turd, I will post about it because it is on the models. I only mentioned the possibility of the OES, not saying it will happen. ANd you get fans because you talk trash to people who are more enthusiastic about the weather than you are.

James, my first reaction was hysterical laughter reading this getting out of work now. Don't take it so seriously or personally. I think the difference between a meltdown and composure is simply knowing when to back away from a threat and when you feel the impulse to latch onto potential, judge your enthusiasm off what some of the elder mets here say. If good mets say its a dud, their rarely wrong despite anything that may evolve past that. I'm not even suggesting to listen to my posts, positive or negative. Im far and away clueless compared to many here. Mets are much like veterans and Meteorology is almost like a sport. The more and more time you spend studying the game, the better you get. However, time spent praticing doesn't necessarily always correlate an advantage over another player. You're never done honing your craft, there is always something new to learn. However, you have to heed caution and understand the words of your experienced teammates.

we're all here for the same reason and goal in the end and it gets lost in the mix of who is right or wrong, calls it first, and general unrealistic expectations in some instances. This pattern was well drawn out and forecasted by pretty much all outlets.

Don't take my words personally James. I'd never mean to offend you as a person.

In unrelated conversation, people need to learn to step back and take a break if they can't handle a pattern. It won't make it snow any faster, but time spent otherwise is healthy for the board and the individual. There is still weather and conversation to be had even in this crud. It might not be as fun to talk cutters, but every thread is filled by grown adults pouting over snowstorms. How about some consideration for the mods who have to deal with it on a day to day basis several hours in a day? It's not like they are paid for what they do.

Let's just screw our heads on straight and act like civilized human beings. Exercise your civil obligation to not post verbal diarrhea.

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Same, it's been so wildly inconsistent. Pretty bad when a model makes the regular gfs seem stable. Though the regular gfs has done well lately. I'm just not sure we can realistically have a 13km gfs just yet.

Sent from my iPhone

Yeah improved resolution is great but if the model can't figure out basic synoptic patterns it's useless.

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It has a warm bias too at the near surface. I don't know if that got corrected, but in the other areas of the troposphere it looked ok. I wonder how or if that impacts MOS.

 

You'd think the increased resolution should help. As we get closer to this going operational I'm going to try and spend more time looking at it. 

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