Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[Ginx snewx]

lol, must be bad/boring when we start reminiscing about past years this time of year

Its not like August or something when we are dying to talk about something wintery.

you missed the point

[CoastalWx]

you missed the point

 

It was sort of a joke. 

[Ginx snewx]

This. I feel like a lot of folks lately are taking posts far too seriously. We come here to talk weather, but I think most are stable enough in the head to not truly get worked up over this stuff. Its serious business...but not really serious. Highly entertaining interactions at times though.

life's too short to live humorless and normal.

[CoastalWx]

life's too short to live humorless and normal.

 

It's also too short to whine about snow. It's why we avg what we avg. 

[Ginx snewx]

It's also too short to whine about snow. It's why we avg what we avg.

SE ridge gradient transformer to goodies

2005-01-01 50 29 39.5 13.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 1

01-02 38 24 31.0 4.8 34 0 T 0.0 1

01-03 52 38 45.0 19.0 20 0 0.22 0.0 T

01-04 44 35 39.5 13.6 25 0 0.54 0.0 0

01-05 37 25 31.0 5.3 34 0 0.14 1.9 2

01-06 32 22 27.0 1.4 38 0 0.74 5.1 5

01-07 33 23 28.0 2.5 37 0 0.00 0.0 4

01-08 32 22 27.0 1.6 38 0 0.89 0.1 4

01-09 31 20 25.5 0.1 39 0 0.01 0.1 4

01-10 38 28 33.0 7.7 32 0 T T 3

01-11 36 27 31.5 6.3 33 0 0.17 1.9 5

01-12 35 27 31.0 5.8 34 0 0.45 2.6 5

01-13 55 31 43.0 17.9 22 0 0.01 0.0 2

01-14 60 29 44.5 19.4 20 0 0.90 0.2 T

01-15 30 20 25.0 -0.1 40 0 0.00 0.0 T

01-16 25 18 21.5 -3.6 43 0 0.01 0.2 T

01-17 26 11 18.5 -6.6 46 0 0.05 0.6 1

01-18 11 -0 5.5 -19.6 59 0 0.00 0.0 1

01-19 23 -3 10.0 -15.1 55 0 0.09 2.5 3

01-20 27 13 20.0 -5.2 45 0 0.04 0.6 3

01-21 15 -2 6.5 -18.7 58 0 0.00 0.0 3

01-22 20 -8 6.0 -19.3 59 0 0.45 6.2 8

01-23 24 -0 12.0 -13.3 53 0 0.60 8.5 14

01-24 21 -2 9.5 -15.9 55 0 0.00 0.0 13

01-25 25 5 15.0 -10.5 50 0 0.00 0.0 13

01-26 23 15 19.0 -6.6 46 0 0.37 4.1 17

01-27 16 -1 7.5 -18.2 57 0 0.01 0.1 16

01-28 23 -4 9.5 -16.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 15

01-29 35 4 19.5 -6.4 45 0 0.00 0.0 13

01-30 39 20 29.5 3.5 35 0 T T 12

01-31 31 14 22.5 -3.6 42 0 0.00 0.0 11

Sum 987 480 - - 1274 0 5.69 34.7 -

Average 31.8 15.5 23.7 -1.8 - - - - 5.8

Normal 33.8 17.2 25.5 - 1224 0 4.28 14.7 -

[CoastalWx]

SE ridge gradient transformer to goodies

2005-01-01 50 29 39.5 13.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 1

2005-01-02 38 24 31.0 4.8 34 0 T 0.0 1

2005-01-03 52 38 45.0 19.0 20 0 0.22 0.0 T

2005-01-04 44 35 39.5 13.6 25 0 0.54 0.0 0

2005-01-05 37 25 31.0 5.3 34 0 0.14 1.9 2

2005-01-06 32 22 27.0 1.4 38 0 0.74 5.1 5

2005-01-07 33 23 28.0 2.5 37 0 0.00 0.0 4

2005-01-08 32 22 27.0 1.6 38 0 0.89 0.1 4

2005-01-09 31 20 25.5 0.1 39 0 0.01 0.1 4

2005-01-10 38 28 33.0 7.7 32 0 T T 3

2005-01-11 36 27 31.5 6.3 33 0 0.17 1.9 5

2005-01-12 35 27 31.0 5.8 34 0 0.45 2.6 5

2005-01-13 55 31 43.0 17.9 22 0 0.01 0.0 2

2005-01-14 60 29 44.5 19.4 20 0 0.90 0.2 T

2005-01-15 30 20 25.0 -0.1 40 0 0.00 0.0 T

2005-01-16 25 18 21.5 -3.6 43 0 0.01 0.2 T

2005-01-17 26 11 18.5 -6.6 46 0 0.05 0.6 1

2005-01-18 11 -0 5.5 -19.6 59 0 0.00 0.0 1

2005-01-19 23 -3 10.0 -15.1 55 0 0.09 2.5 3

2005-01-20 27 13 20.0 -5.2 45 0 0.04 0.6 3

2005-01-21 15 -2 6.5 -18.7 58 0 0.00 0.0 3

2005-01-22 20 -8 6.0 -19.3 59 0 0.45 6.2 8

2005-01-23 24 -0 12.0 -13.3 53 0 0.60 8.5 14

2005-01-24 21 -2 9.5 -15.9 55 0 0.00 0.0 13

2005-01-25 25 5 15.0 -10.5 50 0 0.00 0.0 13

2005-01-26 23 15 19.0 -6.6 46 0 0.37 4.1 17

2005-01-27 16 -1 7.5 -18.2 57 0 0.01 0.1 16

2005-01-28 23 -4 9.5 -16.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 15

2005-01-29 35 4 19.5 -6.4 45 0 0.00 0.0 13

2005-01-30 39 20 29.5 3.5 35 0 T T 12

2005-01-31 31 14 22.5 -3.6 42 0 0.00 0.0 11

Sum 987 480 - - 1274 0 5.69 34.7 -

Average 31.8 15.5 23.7 -1.8 - - - - 5.8

Normal 33.8 17.2 25.5 - 1224 0 4.28 14.7 -

Observations for each day cover the 24 hours ending

at the time given below (Local Standard Time).

Max Temperature : 11pm

Min Temperature : 11pm

Precipitation : 11pm

Snowfall : unknown

Snow Depth : unknown

 

My only issue is the NAO. I'm starting to think we will not see a SSW. The vortex will not break. When it does, it comes right back together again. So, I don't know a mechanism right now to force a prolonged classic -NAO. We may have to hope for Scandinavian ridges or bootleg -NAOs from strong low pressure moving past Labrador. Perhaps that changes in Feb, but for now..we'll have to hope on the Pacific to cooperate.

[Ginx snewx]

My only issue is the NAO. I'm starting to think we will not see a SSW. The vortex will not break. When it does, it comes right back together again. So, I don't know a mechanism right now to force a prolonged classic -NAO. We may have to hope for Scandinavian ridges or bootleg -NAOs from strong low pressure moving past Labrador. Perhaps that changes in Feb, but for now..we'll have to hope on the Pacific to cooperate.

mid month Strat break seems likely

[CoastalWx]

mid month Strat break seems likely

 

Yeah, but it comes right back together again. It keeps getting punches so I'm not saying it cannot happen, but it's showing itself to be quite stubborn. Solar is not helping either.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, but it comes right back together again. It keeps getting punches so I'm not saying it cannot happen, but it's showing itself to be quite stubborn. Solar is not helping either.

not that unusual to get stretched and then snap back,guess we will see what the next attack brings.

[N. OF PIKE]

^{Trying to decide when I should go skiing next. Just don't wont ice and severe wind chills.}

^{Crotched Mtn open till 3am Fri/Sat nite's ......speaking of local gems....love it.}

 

^{I like SnowGoose's call of entering the freezer for a while}

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I did yard work today, too, after some Frisbee tossing with my boy.

Excellent, December frisbee, Kevin must have cringed when he read that. Did you work on his forehand (flick) throws?

[TalcottWx]

Get over yourself, no one is God, so until the event is long gone and we are past its dates and its history, then we can look forward to the end of the winter, look there will be more chances, so stop being so certain that nothing is going to work out. Yeah you have an idea of what's going to happen, but that idea is suspect until all the models agree on something. So stop ridiculing me based on your opinion, I can give you mine, deal with it, that is what these forums are for, if you don't like it, don't come on here any more.

When your opinion blows I'm not going to ignore it just because it's your opinion. Also, if you had any type of clue, I spent all day yesterday proclaiming winter wasn't dead.

Go chase an OES event at hour 200 on the JMA or something. Just restrain yourself from posting about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

When your opinion blows I'm not going to ignore it just because it's your opinion. Also, if you had any type of clue, I spent all day yesterday proclaiming winter wasn't dead.

Go chase an OES event at hour 200 on the JMA or something. Just restrain yourself from posting about it.

lol

[powderfreak]

you missed the point

Total joke

It was sort of a joke.

Haha yeah it was a play on your coming back to find a ton of "this is an awful winter" posts.

[TalcottWx]

lol

Seacrest, out.

[BostonWX]

Seacrest, out.

 

That was beautiful

[Ginx snewx]

Total joke

Haha yeah it was a play on your coming back to find a ton of "this is an awful winter" posts.

hmm

[jamesnichols89]

WHat a disrespectful turd, I will post about it because it is on the models.  I only mentioned the possibility of the OES, not saying it will happen.  ANd you get fans because you talk trash to people who are more enthusiastic about the weather than you are.  Wow,, mature.  Anyways the SREFs are even further north with the precip, almost .50" of precip24 hours.  I know I know its the SREFs in long range, goes to show you it takes only a little sharpening of the shortwave trough to get something nice up here in SNE.

[N. OF PIKE]

WHat a disrespectful turd, I will post about it because it is on the models.  I only mentioned the possibility of the OES, not saying it will happen.  ANd you get fans because you talk trash to people who are more enthusiastic about the weather than you are.  Wow,, mature.  Anyways the SREFs are even further north with the precip, almost .50" of precip24 hours.  I know I know its the SREFs in long range, goes to show you it takes only a little sharpening of the shortwave trough to get something nice up here in SNE.

Hi James, try not to take the stuff too personal. You should make a GTG sometime.

[Ginx snewx]

Hi James, try not to take the stuff too personal. You should make a GTG sometime.

yes James relax and ignore, being enthusiastic is cool but remember lots of models will show different outcomes but they are guidance with biases.

[powderfreak]

hmm

I feel good enough about the pattern going forward...I feel like it'll produce something. May not be epic, but it'll be serviceable. We'll all have our chances. I'd feel less enthused if I lived south of NYC without blocking, though some of these cold pushes could time it right for those guys south of 40N.

[jamesnichols89]

I don't drive a car, so its hard for me to get to a get together anywhere in New England.  Anyways I understand the biases in the models, which is why the 21z SREFs have me worried some, they trended further northwest even when the other guidance is trending out to sea.  I heard the UKMET supports the SREFs and NAM solutions, can anyone verify that for me?

[CT Valley Snowman]

For me meteorological winter starts Dec 1st. If the next two storms fail to deliver than in my mind about 40 days of winter just got flushed down the toilet. I understand we had some bonus Thanksgiving snows but I love good retention and a long lasting snow cover and that has not happened thus far. There is now way around it, the pattern has sucked and people are getting a bit annoyed given the expectations for this winter. That is not to say January will deliver the goods and a nice big event will wipe the bad taste out of everyone's mouth but I't's like winter started out 1-0 and than lost like 4 games in a row so we're about 1-4 in a 12 games season right now and looking for a nice win in the form of a storm to deliver fresh snow cover to go along with the cold weather to get us back on the winning track.  If we get the cold weather but no snow in my mind it is progress but perhaps moving the ball but only scoring a field goal when we really need a touchdown to get back in the game

[Ginx snewx]

For me meteorological winter starts Dec 1st. If the next two storms fail to deliver than in my mind about 40 days of winter just got flushed down the toilet. I understand we had some bonus Thanksgiving snows but I love good retention and a long lasting snow cover and that has not happened thus far. There is now way around it, the pattern has sucked and people are getting a bit annoyed given the expectations for this winter. That is not to say January will deliver the goods and a nice big event will wipe the bad taste out of everyone's mouth but I't's like winter started out 1-0 and than lost like 4 games in a row so we're about 1-4 in a 12 games season right now and looking for a nice win in the form of a storm to deliver fresh snow cover to go along with the cold weather to get us back on the winning track. If we get the cold weather but no snow in my mind it is progress but perhaps moving the ball but only scoring a field goal when we really need a touchdown to get back in the game

what's your average snow for Dec and how much did you get?

[CoastalWx]

For me meteorological winter starts Dec 1st. If the next two storms fail to deliver than in my mind about 40 days of winter just got flushed down the toilet. I understand we had some bonus Thanksgiving snows but I love good retention and a long lasting snow cover and that has not happened thus far. There is now way around it, the pattern has sucked and people are getting a bit annoyed given the expectations for this winter. That is not to say January will deliver the goods and a nice big event will wipe the bad taste out of everyone's mouth but I't's like winter started out 1-0 and than lost like 4 games in a row so we're about 1-4 in a 12 games season right now and looking for a nice win in the form of a storm to deliver fresh snow cover to go along with the cold weather to get us back on the winning track.  If we get the cold weather but no snow in my mind it is progress but perhaps moving the ball but only scoring a field goal when we really need a touchdown to get back in the game

 

Using that analogy, this subforum is pretty much the New York Jets right now.

[CT Valley Snowman]

I got less than 2 inches of snow in December. I have to check the averages for BDL unless someone knows what their Dec average is.  

[ORH_wxman]

I got less than 2 inches of snow in December. I have to check the averages for BDL unless someone knows what their Dec average is.  

 

 

10.0" or 10.1"

[Brian5671]

10.0" or 10.1"

wow 10 inches at Bradley? Would have thought less

[CT Valley Snowman]

I did have a couple of nice mood type snowfalls coatings  and a 1.5 inch light event which when added to my 4.7 in November has be at about 6.3 or so so It's not a horrible situation but certainly December was on the uglier side

[Ginx snewx]

I got less than 2 inches of snow in December. I have to check the averages for BDL unless someone knows what their Dec average is.

Think you can make up 8 inches in 3 months?