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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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An event 180 hours away is not dead until within 3.5 days, it has numerous times to change the end result, therefore its likely not to show the same thing happen over and over again.  If the SE ridge was strong as some are mentioning, then why isn't the 30th event coming northward to impact the region instead of being shunted to the southeast.  NAM has something happening on the 31st still with the second low, OES is possible according to the NAM as inversion heights reach 850mb which is sufficiently high enough to produce accumulating OES.

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Just like any event 180 hours away, its all about timing the little disturbances out to correct form.  There is a shortwave that rotates around the Vortex in Hudson Bay around hour 135 which produces a low and a cold front, in our case its an arctic front with a large high pressure center to the northwest of the frontal boundary and north of the Great Lakes.  This is the source of new cold arctic air ready to join forces with the storm, however models are different with timing of this front which will have major implications on the downstream impacts of the southwestern trough.  Let's give this another three days before calling it dead.  I'm tired of people assuming the end result 100 hours out, fact is we don't know what's going to happen in three days, let alone 100 hours from now.

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Just like any event 180 hours away, its all about timing the little disturbances out to correct form.  There is a shortwave that rotates around the Vortex in Hudson Bay around hour 135 which produces a low and a cold front, in our case its an arctic front with a large high pressure center to the northwest of the frontal boundary and north of the Great Lakes.  This is the source of new cold arctic air ready to join forces with the storm, however models are different with timing of this front which will have major implications on the downstream impacts of the southwestern trough.  Let's give this another three days before calling it dead.  I'm tired of people assuming the end result 100 hours out, fact is we don't know what's going to happen in three days, let alone 100 hours from now.

 

 

An event 180 hours away is not dead until within 3.5 days, it has numerous times to change the end result, therefore its likely not to show the same thing happen over and over again.  If the SE ridge was strong as some are mentioning, then why isn't the 30th event coming northward to impact the region instead of being shunted to the southeast.  NAM has something happening on the 31st still with the second low, OES is possible according to the NAM as inversion heights reach 850mb which is sufficiently high enough to produce accumulating OES.

Omg enough. There is enough skill on this board to evaluate what is likely going to happen. 

straws1.jpg

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Omg enough. There is enough skill on this board to evaluate what is likely going to happen. 

straws1.jpg

 

Get over yourself, no one is God, so until the event is long gone and we are past its dates and its history, then we can look forward to the end of the winter, look there will be more chances, so stop being so certain that nothing is going to work out.  Yeah you have an idea of what's going to happen, but that idea is suspect until all the models agree on something.  So stop ridiculing me based on your opinion, I can give you mine, deal with it, that is what these forums are for, if you don't like it, don't come on here any more.

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Well I guess I could sit around and write war and peace posts that really don't say much more than what everyone else says in a paragraph. Instead I write short opinions while usually enjoying whatever weather brings in some form of physical activity as do 99,9 % of the posters here. Moms Basement dwellers excluded

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Hey guys.....REALLY?

It's all trivial.....

Seem like no matter what decisions I make, life just seems to want to kick back. I don't have works to describe nor the time on the evolution of what can possibly go wrong in ones life.

 

It's all BS, a diversion, a weather forum, WTF...REALLY. This to lately is ruined, frankly I don't give a crap if it snows or not........    

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Hey guys.....REALLY?

It's all trivial.....

Seem like no matter what decisions I make, life just seems to want to kick back. I don't have works to describe nor the time on the evolution of what can possibly go wrong in ones life.

It's all BS, a diversion, a weather forum, WTF...REALLY. This to lately is ruined, frankly I don't give a crap if it snows or not........

it doesn't snow in Central Florida,lol. Pretty sure Don ,no one is seriously serious.
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I didn't say that. I think it will. But I'm not as confident as you, because I don't fully trust the long range guidance and I think local or regional scale features can have an unexpectedly large influence.

Overall I think people on here express more certainty in the 10-14 day forecast than is warranted. I know it's usually given with caveats and in a probabilistic manner, but I still think reality is more uncertain than the consensus forecast.

Well if you still think early January will be below normal... Regardless of your confidence...but then say there is greater than a 50% chance for the month to finish above normal, that means you have quite a bit of confidence that the second two thirds of the month will be above normal.

I just do not see any evidence to make that type of a call.

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Will, am I just being overly aggressive here in saying that there might be Ocean Effect Snow chances this upcoming week, like on Tuesday afternoon and evening?

Jimmy, you've called for an OES event at least once a week since late November. None of them have worked out. You generally need true arctic air which we don't really have next week. Plus SST's are off the charts warm this year so you are going to face all kinds of BL issues this year in onshore flow events until when/if they cool
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it doesn't snow in Central Florida,lol. Pretty sure Don ,no one is seriously serious.

 

This.  I feel like a lot of folks lately are taking posts far too seriously.  We come here to talk weather, but I think most are stable enough in the head to not truly get worked up over this stuff.   Its serious business...but not really serious.  Highly entertaining interactions at times though.

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lol, must be bad/boring when we start reminiscing about past years this time of year ;)

 

Its not like August or something when we are dying to talk about something wintery.

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I spend a great deal of time and money to make my yard look like St. Thomas and after reading this thread I've decided I'm actually the most normal person here.

hmmm , I have yet to meet Mr Normal. I actually often wonder what normal is. Does sound boring though. Your normal could be my radical or vice versa
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