Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well to those who were trying to drive certain mets away.. Congratulations , you succeeded. Appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 A few more days like today and I might start rooting on the torch, if it ain't going to snow give me 55 and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 An event 180 hours away is not dead until within 3.5 days, it has numerous times to change the end result, therefore its likely not to show the same thing happen over and over again. If the SE ridge was strong as some are mentioning, then why isn't the 30th event coming northward to impact the region instead of being shunted to the southeast. NAM has something happening on the 31st still with the second low, OES is possible according to the NAM as inversion heights reach 850mb which is sufficiently high enough to produce accumulating OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Just like any event 180 hours away, its all about timing the little disturbances out to correct form. There is a shortwave that rotates around the Vortex in Hudson Bay around hour 135 which produces a low and a cold front, in our case its an arctic front with a large high pressure center to the northwest of the frontal boundary and north of the Great Lakes. This is the source of new cold arctic air ready to join forces with the storm, however models are different with timing of this front which will have major implications on the downstream impacts of the southwestern trough. Let's give this another three days before calling it dead. I'm tired of people assuming the end result 100 hours out, fact is we don't know what's going to happen in three days, let alone 100 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It was so inspiring to be doing yard work on Dec. 27", really had me in that winter spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Just like any event 180 hours away, its all about timing the little disturbances out to correct form. There is a shortwave that rotates around the Vortex in Hudson Bay around hour 135 which produces a low and a cold front, in our case its an arctic front with a large high pressure center to the northwest of the frontal boundary and north of the Great Lakes. This is the source of new cold arctic air ready to join forces with the storm, however models are different with timing of this front which will have major implications on the downstream impacts of the southwestern trough. Let's give this another three days before calling it dead. I'm tired of people assuming the end result 100 hours out, fact is we don't know what's going to happen in three days, let alone 100 hours from now. An event 180 hours away is not dead until within 3.5 days, it has numerous times to change the end result, therefore its likely not to show the same thing happen over and over again. If the SE ridge was strong as some are mentioning, then why isn't the 30th event coming northward to impact the region instead of being shunted to the southeast. NAM has something happening on the 31st still with the second low, OES is possible according to the NAM as inversion heights reach 850mb which is sufficiently high enough to produce accumulating OES. Omg enough. There is enough skill on this board to evaluate what is likely going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Omg enough. There is enough skill on this board to evaluate what is likely going to happen. Get over yourself, no one is God, so until the event is long gone and we are past its dates and its history, then we can look forward to the end of the winter, look there will be more chances, so stop being so certain that nothing is going to work out. Yeah you have an idea of what's going to happen, but that idea is suspect until all the models agree on something. So stop ridiculing me based on your opinion, I can give you mine, deal with it, that is what these forums are for, if you don't like it, don't come on here any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It was so inspiring to be doing yard work on Dec. 27", really had me in that winter spirit. I did yard work today, too, after some Frisbee tossing with my boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I know, Tip thinks up some weird convoluted crap NO ... you just think I'm always talking about you, for some reason. I am not the only one who detects the bs around here -- I'm just the most vocal about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 NO ... you just think I'm always talking about you, for some reason. I am not the only one who detects the bs around here -- I'm just the most vocal about it.yeah okay,Garth responded to you our board psychoanalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well I guess I could sit around and write war and peace posts that really don't say much more than what everyone else says in a paragraph. Instead I write short opinions while usually enjoying whatever weather brings in some form of physical activity as do 99,9 % of the posters here. Moms Basement dwellers excluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lots of holiday spirit in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Hey guys.....REALLY? It's all trivial..... Seem like no matter what decisions I make, life just seems to want to kick back. I don't have works to describe nor the time on the evolution of what can possibly go wrong in ones life. It's all BS, a diversion, a weather forum, WTF...REALLY. This to lately is ruined, frankly I don't give a crap if it snows or not........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lots of holiday spirit in here today.Jingaling hear them ring, soon it will be weenies day. City sidewalks,brown dry sidewalks,dressed in trash and debris,in the air there's a feeling of springtime. And on every street corner you hear.Winters done,Winters done,soon it will be Easter Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Hey guys.....REALLY? It's all trivial..... Seem like no matter what decisions I make, life just seems to want to kick back. I don't have works to describe nor the time on the evolution of what can possibly go wrong in ones life. It's all BS, a diversion, a weather forum, WTF...REALLY. This to lately is ruined, frankly I don't give a crap if it snows or not........ it doesn't snow in Central Florida,lol. Pretty sure Don ,no one is seriously serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 it doesn't snow in Central Florida,lol. Pretty sure Don ,no one is seriously serious. Thanks Steve. It will as soon as I settle in. (2x) LMFAO So much crap going down, last minute on everything here. Post more fit for OT and venting just like everyone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I didn't say that. I think it will. But I'm not as confident as you, because I don't fully trust the long range guidance and I think local or regional scale features can have an unexpectedly large influence. Overall I think people on here express more certainty in the 10-14 day forecast than is warranted. I know it's usually given with caveats and in a probabilistic manner, but I still think reality is more uncertain than the consensus forecast. Well if you still think early January will be below normal... Regardless of your confidence...but then say there is greater than a 50% chance for the month to finish above normal, that means you have quite a bit of confidence that the second two thirds of the month will be above normal. I just do not see any evidence to make that type of a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Will, am I just being overly aggressive here in saying that there might be Ocean Effect Snow chances this upcoming week, like on Tuesday afternoon and evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Deep, deep grass. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1419713973.699357.jpg. Someone's local webcam. Those lawns look like crap. Nothing but deep, deep Lesco green in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Will, am I just being overly aggressive here in saying that there might be Ocean Effect Snow chances this upcoming week, like on Tuesday afternoon and evening?Jimmy, you've called for an OES event at least once a week since late November. None of them have worked out. You generally need true arctic air which we don't really have next week. Plus SST's are off the charts warm this year so you are going to face all kinds of BL issues this year in onshore flow events until when/if they cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Will, am I just being overly aggressive here in saying that there might be Ocean Effect Snow chances this upcoming week, like on Tuesday afternoon and evening?thats a one way trip to weenieland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 it doesn't snow in Central Florida,lol. Pretty sure Don ,no one is seriously serious. This. I feel like a lot of folks lately are taking posts far too seriously. We come here to talk weather, but I think most are stable enough in the head to not truly get worked up over this stuff. Its serious business...but not really serious. Highly entertaining interactions at times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow020703.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow021703.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow030603.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow020703.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow021703.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow030603.gif lol, must be bad/boring when we start reminiscing about past years this time of year Its not like August or something when we are dying to talk about something wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I spend a great deal of time and money to make my yard look like St. Thomas and after reading this thread I've decided I'm actually the most normal person here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I spend a great deal of time and money to make my yard look like St. Thomas and after reading this thread I've decided I'm actually the most normal person here.hmmm , I have yet to meet Mr Normal. I actually often wonder what normal is. Does sound boring though. Your normal could be my radical or vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 lol, must be bad/boring when we start reminiscing about past years this time of year Its not like August or something when we are dying to talk about something wintery. That's a preview. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's a preview. Lock it in.All three of those are coming in one week.BOS is the new CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 All three of those are coming in one week. One of the most epic turnarounds ever in winter for my area until 2013 came along. Aside from a moderate event in December, we were porked until Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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