NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks like a net gainer off the immediate cp to me....tbt 7 years ago.12/16/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 That's nowhere near a SWFE. It crushes NNE and gets caught up with the developing -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I can't see the mid levels, Scott. How does it look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Gibbs says torch 26-29. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Gibbs says torch 26-29. Is that right? Massive torch coming 7/1-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:17 PM, weathafella said: Yes. The previous phl and ots is not what I saw. Doesn't look swfe to me. Looks like it buries the north then escapes east. But whatever, the solution will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 How does it bury nne, and miss sne? Is it rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:33 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Doesn't look swfe to me. Looks like it buries the north then escapes east. But whatever, the solution will change.Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: How does it bury nne, and miss sne? Is it rain here? It's probably a lot of rain ORH south, but honestly details at hr 216 are really meaningless. The airmass is marginal to start and we just pump in marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 6:52 PM, weathafella said: IMHO a major storm with a lot of frozen qpf for New England is on the table 12/24-5. I think it is possible too. It wouldnt come without taint, but frozen precip is on the table On 12/16/2014 at 6:54 PM, JC-CT said: What is a Heather A Heather Archembault has published research on how KU events often occur during a transitional period in the NAO index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It looked swfe but I was on the phone looking and not checking the loop so my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:50 PM, weathafella said: It looked swfe but I was on the phone looking and not checking the loop so my bad. That's what I thought, but what the hell do I know. 32.1/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenewbigmack Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 12:59 AM, CoastalWx said: EC MJO.gif Amazing post Coastal. Tropical forcing has been a big interest of mine over the last year. I feel it's a forecast method which is often underrated. I assume the above image is behind a paywall? Also, while I've looked into it for the past year, it's still a topic which is hard to grasp at times. You mention warm SST's helping to facilitate the MJO... Could you explain what you meant? Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:50 PM, weathafella said: It looked swfe but I was on the phone looking and not checking the loop so my bad. All good. Plenty of time for this to shift, especially considering the NAO is shifting at the same time this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 was the christmas storm on the euro a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ens want no part of a non grinch solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:06 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: All good. Plenty of time for this to shift, especially considering the NAO is shifting at the same time this unfolds. Didn't it shift from a Cutter yesterday, to this idea today?? I thought I remember people saying this was a Cutter/Rainer yesterday?? Or maybe I misunderstood?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yeah euro ensembles still sh*tting on us. Probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:12 PM, NYY_2 said: was the christmas storm on the euro a cutter? It still is on the GFS Para though the GFS now has a secondary developing and taking over.. not sure if it would be soon enough to save us in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:16 PM, WinterWolf said: Didn't it shift from a Cutter yesterday, to this idea today?? I thought I remember people saying this was a Cutter/Rainer yesterday?? Or maybe I misunderstood?? I think so....I guess that's my point that there's alot of moving pieces, solutions will vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look marginalv at best for 21st and are a total Grinch storm for most of new england with the Christmas storm. Looks like trash for anyone who likes snow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well as I said, transition storms. If you get lucky, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I just hope the transition doesn't take too long to the point it never settles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:41 PM, NJwinter23 said: I think it is possible too. It wouldnt come without taint, but frozen precip is on the table Heather Archembault has published research on how KU events often occur during a transitional period in the NAO index Yeah for now this is the way to think. 10 days out. Trend seems to be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 It will settle, but there may be 2-3 messy storms through the 27th or so. It's outlined in the beginning of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Man the euro ensembles bring it big time right after mr grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:21 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro ensembles look marginalv at best for 21st and are a total Grinch storm for most of new england with the Christmas storm. Looks like trash for anyone who likes snow in SNE On 12/16/2014 at 8:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Well as I said, transition storms. If you get lucky, great. It's also worth noting that two days ago the Euro ensembles had a more significant looking impact for the system on the 21st, and that looks rather muted at this point. So, as favored as Euro guidance is and with a nod to general deference toward the ensembles, the expectations should be low but the belief of precision at this time frame should be even lower. Oh, great. Look at me, I'm saying what shouldn't even need to be said. Some people are just idiots until it actually snows. Then they're just happy idiots, who are marginally more tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:30 PM, Zeus said: It's also worth noting that two days ago the Euro ensembles had a more significant looking impact for the system on the 21st, and that looks rather muted at this point. So, as favored as Euro guidance is and with a nod to general deference toward the ensembles, the expectations should be low but the belief of precision at this time frame should be even lower. Oh, great. Look at me, I'm saying what shouldn't even need to be said. Some people are just idiots until it actually snows. Then they're just happy idiots, who are marginally more tolerable. Well, it was just a verbatim analysis. Obviously things will more than likely change, but that is the look right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:30 PM, Zeus said: It's also worth noting that two days ago the Euro ensembles had a more significant looking impact for the system on the 21st, and that looks rather muted at this point. So, as favored as Euro guidance is and with a nod to general deference toward the ensembles, the expectations should be low but the belief of precision at this time frame should be even lower. Oh, great. Look at me, I'm saying what shouldn't even need to be said. Some people are just idiots until it actually snows. Then they're just happy idiots, who are marginally more tolerable. Aside from the 21st, in general when the cold first dives south, heights pump up in the east. This usually is good for several " I thought the pattern was supposed to change" posts because these little nuances get hidden in the ensemble mean until you get closer. Indeed we will probably see something like that, but of course there is no guarantee on ptype. We went through this a few times last season too. It's just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Almost a gradient like pattern with a weak -NAO. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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