mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It actually looks like a pretty wide precip shield. Yes, why such a wide precip field giving me snow, when it is relatively weak and passing se of the bm? inverted trough? unphased northern stream energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT.. the 0z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN does not NOT show a MSSS for the DEC 20-21 East Coast winter storm threat What is a MSSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't think anyone south of the pike is seeing advisory type snows on the GFS, BL is like mid 30s inland to lower 40s coastline. Yeah the GFS handles BL temps fantastically . Rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS can eat it with BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't think anyone south of the pike is seeing advisory type snows on the GFS, BL is like mid 30s inland to lower 40s coastline. Someone once said something about the GFS and BL temps and 5+ days out, but I don't remember what it was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Guess no one liked my model interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Guess no one liked my model interpretation. Guess no one liked my model interpretation. I thought it was fine. Skilamb didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Someone once said something about the GFS and BL temps and 5+ days out, but I don't remember what it was... Sucks. Same with the GFS temps one day out, esp inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What is a MSSS? I think it means 850 at or below zero for Tolland, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yes, why such a wide precip field giving me snow, when it is relatively weak and passing se of the bm? inverted trough? unphased northern stream energy? ensemble mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I thought it was fine. Skilamb didn't. I may not be a MET but I play on on this Forum. I honestly did not think it looked awful. Verbatim it's a hot mess but it's closer to something bigger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GFS really sucks with temps early in the season, regardless of this outcome. Esp 950 and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS advertises a weak system passing SE of BM with advisory type snows for most. Marginal in southern areas. I'd hit a nice advisory event refresher. Spitting out around 0.4" in 24/hrs at MVL on that 12z GFS with a SE low level flow. Very similar to the 00z EURO last night in that more widespread light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 There's no mechanism to cool us off though on the GFS, it's a weak system in a stale airmass, no surprise that it's warm at the surface. I know the GFS sucks with BL temps, but it's not alone, every single model as of right now is too warm for accumulating snow in most of SNE. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this light stuff is going to cut it, need to get the dynamics, bombing and connection to the high back like we had a couple days ago on the EURO to allow for a colder solution. Otherwise, you're going to end up with light rain/non accumulating snow IMO. If it was January 20th instead of December 20th or we had a better airmass, I'd feel differently, but I don't see a GFS like solution working for SNE if you're trying to get snow out of it unless we see a substantial trend cooler on all guidance(Which is possible, but unlikely.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ensemble mean... but that comment was in refernence to the 12z op PGFS I think. By the way check out my comment in the banter thread re the change in conditions as you go N on 89...pretty remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GFS really sucks with temps early in the season, regardless of this outcome. Esp 950 and below. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'd hit a nice advisory event refresher. Spitting out around 0.4" in 24/hrs at MVL on that 12z GFS with a SE low level flow. Very similar to the 00z EURO last night in that more widespread light event. gfs_precip_24hr_neng_49.png A nice 3-6 inch event for most folks. This one ain't gonna be a blockbuster,, but it's certainly looking a solid high end advisory /low end warning event for the vast majority of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 There's no mechanism to cool us off though on the GFS, it's a weak system in a stale airmass, no surprise that it's warm at the surface. I know the GFS sucks with BL temps, but it's not alone, every single model as of right now is too warm for accumulating snow in most of SNE. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this light stuff is going to cut it, need to get the dynamics, bombing and connection to the high back like we had a couple days ago on the EURO to allow for a colder solution. Otherwise, you're going to end up with light rain/non accumulating snow IMO. If it was January 20th instead of December 20th or we had a better airmass, I'd feel differently, but I don't see a GFS like solution working for SNE if you're trying to get snow out of it unless we see a substantial trend cooler on all guidance(Which is possible, but unlikely.). I feel confident in saying there would be snow inland and esp high terrain with 534 thicknesses with the depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 And the GFS is still trying to improve, I honestly still wipe my behind with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I feel confident in saying there would be snow inland and esp high terrain with 534 thicknesses with the depiction. I really hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FWIW the Canadian is kind of a late bloomer, but scrapes ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I really hope you're right. Well notice I said inland and higher terrain. Very very marginal on the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well notice I said inland and higher terrain. Very very marginal on the CP. Don't worry, I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well notice I said inland and higher terrain. Very very marginal on the CP. Euro ens are snow to the coast.after maybe an initial mix.If I were you guys..I'd be feeling damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well ... as I discussed with you all three days ago ... wanted(want) to see this inside of D4.5 this particular go around, because of the high numbers of waves shorter than rosby scale ... vying for proxy in the flow, interfering; recall: the ECMWF technique of normalizing for perturbation might not be the right approach for enhanced nebularity. That philosophical approach appears to be supported, with latest Euro operational runs backing off the stem-wound bomb nor-easter.... That said, yeah ..there's likely to be an "event" of sort around the 21st... The 12z operational GFS has a negatively tilted weak to midland caliber wave passing over the area, and that should put out a bit of QPF (ptype not withstanding. XMass event is for real... Euro appears west biased as usual for this sort of time lead; which isn't to say the GFS is outright the leader here, but the teleconnectors starting to lean toward favored east solutions for that time frame. Interesting Met to follow... 21st could still come in stronger as we see more relay off the Pac over the next couple of runs, but I am starting to suspect the latter becomes dominant. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 A nice 3-6 inch event for most folks. This one ain't gonna be a blockbuster,, but it's certainly looking a solid high end advisory /low end warning event for the vast majority of us I agree on a widespread advisory event. No reason why anyone should be unhappy with that. Just put some white down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I agree on a widespread advisory event. No reason why anyone should be unhappy with that. Just put some white down.I think some here were thinking this was going to be like 8-12+. That may be where some of the problems are stemming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Another possibility to note is sort of a late blooming curl back like some guidance has. That too is possible as the s/w races in and tries to tug it back last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Another possibility to note is sort of a late blooming curl back like some guidance has. That too is possible as the s/w races in and tries to tug it back last second. GFS kind of has that IVT look as it gets tugged back to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm sure this was already discussed earlier ITT, but the 06z GEFS had a very strong spread to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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