OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You don't say... What about the diagonal GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 seen this movie a hundred times and the ending never changes. Oh yes seen it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like I'm highest on PoP for that time period. Surprising given the ensembles (GEFS and Euro EPS both) are bullish on the NW side of things. GEFS mean is well SE, but the spread is huge to the NW. I can't see members unfortunately, but I have to guess it's pretty good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 mid level low is closed off over Ohio on the EPS mean...granted it was on the op as well...but Id think that should tell you something about the room this has to come NW still...plenty of time Yeah the mid level features look good as well, agreed. Another red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 mid level low is closed off over Ohio on the EPS mean...granted it was on the op as well...but Id think that should tell you something about the room this has to come NW still...plenty of time You can't be too upset at this EC ensemble run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I can't see members unfortunately, but I have to guess it's pretty good there. It was just mentioned, but the low center stamps for the Euro EPS is pretty tight clustering. Sitting in a pretty good spot for this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z EPS spit out 0.50" for PWM, so I can't imagine this is going to be worse. I'm fine with higher half of chance PoP at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z EPS spit out 0.50" for PWM, so I can't imagine this is going to be worse. I'm fine with higher half of chance PoP at this point. You FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meh... its getting there. Still a lot of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z EPS spit out 0.50" for PWM, so I can't imagine this is going to be worse. I'm fine with higher half of chance PoP at this point. Hard to tell but doing the subtracting and adding of changes of QPF, it seems to be like somewhere in the vicinity of 0.75" for most of SNE up through your area...dropping back to about 0.2-0.3" from here to your northern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This was tweeted by Ryan Maue(The owner of the WxBell model site) so I think it's OK to post, but if not, please accept my apologies. It's hour 144 of the 12z EURO ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Maybe I will eat these words, but throw the GFS op out. For now, I would start with a blend of all three ensembles which give some measurable to the region. I side with the euro ensemble, but there is room for error this far out so you can role with the other ensembles too. Weighted more towards EC ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't think its OK but I'm not the boss around here. In reference to the EC ENSEMBLES post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't think its OK but I'm not the boss around here. In reference to the EC ENSEMBLES post. So what don't you like...that fact it doesn't jackpot you at day 6+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 This was tweeted by Ryan Maue(The owner of the WxBell model site) so I think it's OK to post, but if not, please accept my apologies. It's hour 144 of the 12z EURO ens. Looks about right...congrats Dendrite, MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Maybe I will eat these words, but throw the GFS op out. For now, I would start with a blend of all three ensembles which give some measurable to the region. I side with the euro ensemble, but there is room for error this far out so you can role with the other ensembles too. Weighted more towards EC ensemble. This all seems pretty classic to me. ECMWF and CMC are both riding a more robust system, GFS flat and east. Ensembles all have spread NW, and appreciable QPF into SNE. Can't really hate the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So what don't you like...that fact it doesn't jackpot you at day 6+? I think hes referring to the WX Bell ens map being posted... I for one am thrilled to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 This all seems pretty classic to me. ECMWF and CMC are both riding a more robust system, GFS flat and east. Ensembles all have spread NW, and appreciable QPF into SNE. Can't really hate the look. I like it. Even is tucks, I'd still have a white xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So what don't you like...that fact it doesn't jackpot you at day 6+? I think he's talking about forum rules allowing the wxbell image to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This all seems pretty classic to me. ECMWF and CMC are both riding a more robust system, GFS flat and east. Ensembles all have spread NW, and appreciable QPF into SNE. Can't really hate the look. And still have at least 5 days to go, so us NNE'ers have something to watch too as we can still get some jumping around this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I like it. Even is tucks, I'd still have a white xmas. Except for this bastard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This was tweeted by Ryan Maue(The owner of the WxBell model site) so I think it's OK to post, but if not, please accept my apologies. It's hour 144 of the 12z EURO ens. And where does the low go from here??? Progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Snow map from another forum and said to be the 12z Euro Ensembles, but I have no idea because there's no title or markings on it. Congrat's FVE though if it is, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think hes referring to the WX Bell ens map being posted... I for one am thrilled to see it. Believe me I like the look of the day 6 Euro ensembles, my post was in reference to posting the weather Bell images I didn't think that was allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 but if you are into the weatherbell snow maps thing the Euro control run has some nice pretty pink colors across much of interior SNE,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Snow map from another forum and said to be the 12z Euro Ensembles, but I have no idea because there's no title or markings on it. Congrat's FVE though if it is, lol. Untitled.jpg Yeah that is the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You can't be too upset at this EC ensemble run either. GEFS ensembles look great right after christmas with building -NAO, what do the euro ens show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Believe me I like the look of the day 6 Euro ensembles, my post was in reference to posting the weather Bell images I didn't think that was allowed. Yeah I usually assume if it's posted elsewhere, it's good to go. Like social media or something. But then again if someone breaks the rules to post it on social media, does that make it ok to re-post on here? That's usually the only way I'd post Euro stuff though is to lift it off some FB/twitter post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Snow map from another forum and said to be the 12z Euro Ensembles, but I have no idea because there's no title or markings on it. Congrat's FVE though if it is, lol. Untitled.jpg Wow. I expected that too look much better for SNE based on what was being said.Not that it matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wow. I expected that too look much better for SNE based on what was being said. Not that it matters much Matters none. Algorithms FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.