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12/20 Pre Grinch Mood Snows


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it looked nice for the guppies in the Atlantic, verbatim. But like Scott said, its kind of a nice spot this far out.

 

I know there is a bit of a weenie tone to that statement, but it's not without some science behind it. Of course that low in SE Canada could squish it, but I wouldn't want this near ACK at this point. If I were in SNE. 

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I know there is a bit of a weenie tone to that statement, but it's not without some science behind it. Of course that low in SE Canada could squish it, but I wouldn't want this near ACK at this point. If I were in SNE. 

 

I agree. I'm liking this setup for SNE. It could end up missing but I will take my chances with good confluence and good activity from the gulf.

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With the Ens being such a nice hit, you feel very very confident of the inevitable north trend

Comparing 0z ens to 12z op is dangerous, wait for 0z ens to come out.

 

However, to put what we're looking for in perspective, a 100-150 mile shift puts most of SNE in advisory criteria from this. Considering that we often see MillerA systems trend further north as we approach the event, I don't think we're in a bad place right now. Sure, would I have liked to see the EURO show a 12"+ BOMB? Yeah, of course. But considering the evolution(Look at EURO h5 at hour 108, beautiful), and the magnitude of the shift we need(Not that large), I think we can still make something happen.

 

As always, plenty of time for things to go one way or another, but the general idea of a possibly nice event is still there, and with that, onto the 0z runs.

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I know Steve mentioned it a few days ago, but seeing a few more people memtioning the Dec 09 analog.

Yes please on that.

For anyone south of the pike, tough not to like where the euro is at right now. I'd rather see that than a cutter to buffalo

I had about a foot in that. 

I'd take it.

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At hour 72 you can see the Euro is a bit slow with the energy coming out of Arizona.  This delays the phase a tad, which ultimately develops the storm further south and east when it reaches us..  You can also see that it results in a weaker storm along the gulf coast near hour 96...earlier versions had a 1002mb surface low over Louisiana.

 

This is the old Euro bias.  It will correct.

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"Right where we want it"

 

Which part is right where you want it?  The track?  The evolution? the storm depiction? 

 

I know that they all likely mean that the storm track is right where you want it.  But honestly the only part of this storm that is presently right where I want it is the storm evolution.  Models are showing a very mature strengthening cyclone with plenty of moisture being captured by the associated upper level vortmax.

 

The storm track is far from desired.  If the storm was going to be right where I want it I would like the storm to be passing 50 miles southeast of ACK.  And for that track to hold for the next infinity model runs.

 

Just nit-picking I suppose.

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