TalcottWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ride that NAM! At least it's never disappointed anyone before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Harv going 1-2" from the ne corner of CT, just ne of Kev, ne through the Boston area inside of I 495. Coating to an inch, elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Jackpot area will be just inland I think. C-1 final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ride that NAM! At least it's never disappointed anyone before. I'll bet you tell that to all the girls. But yeah, I'm just counting on seeing some fall late tomorrow night/early Sunday. And for now, that'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Let's just get flakes flying....cold without snow is a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Harv going 1-2" from the ne corner of CT, just ne of Kev, ne through the Boston area inside of I 495. Coating to an inch, elsewhere. I'd raise the ceiling on that 2" somewhere localized and shrink the area he highlighted. 1-2" that widespread? Eh... Coating to an inch I'd buy. He nailed the general idea though, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I expect 1.5". Should be cold enough here to the west of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I expect 1.5". Should be cold enough here to the west of the boundary I'd hope for measurable first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 C-1" here. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Best chances for 2"? I'd draw a line from Plymouth, SW to Providence, NW to ORH, then NE to about the tip of Cape Ann. I like Scituate, Weymouth, Quincy, Brockton, Milton, Deadham, Canton right now, that southern portion of 128 and the beginning of the route 3 trip to the Cape. I like that area now but that could move in the next 24 hours. On Cape Ann, I think a good gradient in snowfall. A place like Lynn will tickle into the better snows while Newburyport is flurries and 10sm. Andover might be alot like Newburyport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'd hope for measurable first Mother nature will throw us a bone..in return for boning us thoroughly next week. I'm feeling it..and the fact that it's cold enough gives me confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 C-1" here. MehYour area down to Union is on the best spot for most amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'd raise the ceiling on that 2" somewhere localized and shrink the area he highlighted. 1-2" that widespread? Eh... Coating to an inch I'd buy. He nailed the general idea though, no doubt. I only expecting a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Your area down to Union is on the best spot for most amounts Too,far from the source...but no big deal either way. Union has a better shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The heaviest precip remains about 5 degrees too far to the east on the SREF means. Too bad that low pressure misses to the east, otherwise we would get at least a few inches of heavy wet snowfall. However we have a vort max moving south of the Islands, maybe we can eek something better out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Too,far from the source...but no big deal either way. Union has a better shot No you're not IMO.. Interior away from water will do better than closer in..Also some of the models invert the trough in that area I outlined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 NAMage in Tolland NAM IS PICKING UP ON SOME ENHANCEMENT IN N PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO NORFOLK COUNTY WITH QPF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THIS LIKELY ASSOCD WITH A 20-25 KT E/NE LOW LEVEL JET THAT THE NAM IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE AS HI-RES WRF QPF IS LESS AND OTHER MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE NAM AS IT SOMETIMES CAN PICK UP ON HEAVIER MESOSCALE PRECIP IN THESE SITUATIONS SO USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF TO TEMPER NAM OUTPUT. MAINLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH FOR EASTERN NEW ENG...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS E MA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST SW OF BOSTON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Nam starts snow tomorrow afternoon,east to west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Even CC will snow at first. However NAM brings the 850mb temps down to -6C towards hour 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Coating here in the valley is about all I would expect. Kevin may sneak a 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 While there is no closed H5 low present this go around, the NAM shows a vorticity maximum moving south of the Islands of NY and MA and goes negatively tilted as it scoots eastward. I think it can capture the weak surface low that forms and pushes the band to the west more. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Interesting James we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 CTValley, I just find it odd that a vort max will move south of the region and go negative tilt and not produce something big is a little out of luck here. I think something big happens, but whether or not it snows is not the question, just how much and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The vort max over the Midwest looks strong on water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I cannot see anything really substantial,out of this hot mess. A little salve for the wounds but forgettable. I hope to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I cannot see anything really substantial,out of this hot mess. A little salve for the wounds but forgettable. I hope to be wrong You will have over an inch of fluff..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You will have over an inch of fluff..lol.That should survive Wednesday unscathedDown to a few snow piles here...basically holdouts from pre Turkey day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Scott thoughts on the shortwave over Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Scott thoughts on the shortwave over Iowa? Seems fine. I don't see any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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