CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro looks pretty nice...it's cold too for BOS area. Both sfc and that 850-900mb zone. That will help with some dendritic production. Some could def squeeze out a couple inches if lucky. Nice little pocket of cold coming in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Prob roll out WWA for most of the BOX region later tomorrow. 2-3.. Maybe a 4 from Union up to Hunch area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro looks pretty nice...it's cold too for BOS area. Both sfc and that 850-900mb zone. That will help with some dendritic production. Some could def squeeze out a couple inches if lucky. Like I said in the banter thread, BOS jackpot since I'm going back to CT on Saturday lock it up In all seriousness, it's an IVT, hard to pin down where they choose to reward. BOS/SEMA looks like the winners right now, but I think anyone in SNE is in the game for some flakes given the trend towards a cooler setup overall and the various spread on guidance(Specifically the RGEM/GGEM which both favor areas west into CT, EURO also liked the south coast for flakes it looked like). Definitely liking the cooling trend that's in place, makes it somewhat less of a rates situation and gives more a chance to see accumulating snows on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You know times are hard when you have to grasp on the hopes of an IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Like I said in the banter thread, BOS jackpot since I'm going back to CT on Saturday lock it up In all seriousness, it's an IVT, hard to pin down where they choose to reward. BOS/SEMA looks like the winners right now, but I think anyone in SNE is in the game for some flakes given the trend towards a cooler setup overall and the various spread on guidance(Specifically the RGEM/GGEM which both favor areas west into CT, EURO also liked the south coast for flakes it looked like). Definitely liking the cooling trend that's in place, makes it somewhat less of a rates situation and gives more a chance to see accumulating snows on the ground. The inverted trough is def what could bust things a bit in CT if it ends up that far W...for E MA though there will be some general light snow anyway I think before the IVT really sets up more defined. You have this weak area of upper divergence over a easterly flow at 900-950mb off the Atlantic which should produce some decent mood snows...then as the "event" progresses, we will see where a more defined IVT sets up for the potential for a couple inches..if it sets up at all like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm thinking underperformer here. Model soundings back this way don't look very impressive - lacking low level moisture and when looking at mass fields you don't see a whole lot of boundary layer convergence back this way. Weenie flakes for sure but I doubt measurable here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll take the over and say many in CT see at least 1 Inch with more If we see any Inv trough East flow at surface and south at 850 = saturation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm thinking underperformer here. Model soundings back this way don't look very impressive - lacking low level moisture and when looking at mass fields you don't see a whole lot of boundary layer convergence back this way. Weenie flakes for sure but I doubt measurable here in CT. Nam Nam Hi RES and RGEM look pretty good, Euro not bad, what model is showing you these soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The inverted trough is def what could bust things a bit in CT if it ends up that far W...for E MA though there will be some general light snow anyway I think before the IVT really sets up more defined. You have this weak area of upper divergence over a easterly flow at 900-950mb off the Atlantic which should produce some decent mood snows...then as the "event" progresses, we will see where a more defined IVT sets up for the potential for a couple inches..if it sets up at all like that. Agreed completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Like the little weenie jackpot over me but wont happen lol 12z Canadian decided to go in a completely different direction with this and jackpots central CT and north into MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nam looks good for 1-3 Ct River East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 18z NAM was close to advisory again for BOS and down toward the typical south shore spots..esp NW of like Duxbury/Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 FYI, while the NOAA public data center is malfunctioning, the actual models are not, and NOAA plots output here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 An inch or so looks possible here. Think it ends up as probably flakes in the air or a dusting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 An inch or so looks possible here. Think it ends up as probably flakes in the air or a dusting thoughsuch optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 BOX .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS N MAINE AND THE MARITIMES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE E WHILE SFC WINDS MOSTLY NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST ACROSS SNE DURING SAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NOT REALLY LOOKING AT A PURE OCEAN EFFECT SITUATION AS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT ACROSS CAPE COD VICINITY WITH E WINDS TO THE E OF THE BOUNDARY AND N/NE WINDS TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING WEST FROM CAPE COD INTO EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD...BULK OF PRECIP OCCURS LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCD WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROF. PTYPE/SNOW ACCUM... LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN FOR CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY INTO SE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY WHERE E WINDS WILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...JUST INLAND AND NORTH FROM THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST AND WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE NORTHERLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIX AT THE START. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT LIKELY AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS -10C IN THE MOIST LAYER WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. NAM IS PICKING UP ON SOME ENHANCEMENT IN N PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO NORFOLK COUNTY WITH QPF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THIS LIKELY ASSOCD WITH A 20-25 KT E/NE LOW LEVEL JET THAT THE NAM IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE AS HI-RES WRF QPF IS LESS AND OTHER MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE NAM AS IT SOMETIMES CAN PICK UP ON HEAVIER MESOSCALE PRECIP IN THESE SITUATIONS SO USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF TO TEMPER NAM OUTPUT. MAINLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH FOR EASTERN NEW ENG...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS E MA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST SW OF BOSTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's kind of a poor AFD IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This has me piqued. Booked a room for myself and the fella at the Lenox Hotel downtown for tomorrow night, celebrating our 1 year. Room has a working fireplace. Some snow falling outside would really make things perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This has me piqued. Booked a room for myself and the fella at the Lenox Hotel downtown for tomorrow night, celebrating our 1 year. Room has a working fireplace. Some snow falling outside would really make things perfect. Congrats on the year and that certainly would be nice. Snow is useful for many things despite the Grinches who claim otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This has me piqued. Booked a room for myself and the fella at the Lenox Hotel downtown for tomorrow night, celebrating our 1 year. Room has a working fireplace. Some snow falling outside would really make things perfect. Congrats on you and Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Congrats on you and Jerry! Jerry would hurt him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Jerry would hurt him Jerry couldn't afford me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Jerry couldn't afford me. I think Jerry could afford you and me with a side of Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think Jerry could afford you and me with a side of Scooter I'm cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's kind of a poor AFD IMO How? I thought that it was enough to get the point across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah and over to eastern Norfolk County...could be a Scooter jackpot. That's almost advisory snows there. I haven't looked at models until now when Harvey L said 1-2" for BOS, I was shocked. Models seem to like BOS down to the rt 3 corridor. I'd sorta want to be a little further inland than right at the coast. Probably minimal accums up at Andover at my apartment I'm thinking. I'll be in Southie this weekend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The AFD was fine. Kevin is worried CT wasn't in it, but I'm sure he'll crawl his way over an inch. These things can still waffle so I'll see how it looks in the morning. Would be nice to grab an inch which seems possible. The nam looked good for more, but I'll wait and see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 18z NAM has .10-..25" of QPF over CC and PYM counties for Saturday. MIss the cape by about 100 miles to the east with the heaviest precip. Cold air at 850 and 925mb stays below 0C should keep Cape in rain/snow mix, no accumulations likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Jerry could afford all of Ptown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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