40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 The new GFS takes a piece of vorticity and really helps to dig and phase this with the original s/w, thus pulling the low north. The EC tries to do this, but confluence forces it offshore. Just looked at the run....looks like it takes it over the canal. I honestly see this as a likely scenario, though perhaps not "tucked" so much into LI and se CT....track over CC canal certainly possible. This run is on the nw edge of "Ray" envelope of viability. I think that run is the most tucked the low could be, and the most "f*cked" that the cp could be. Probably a bit colder than this is what the ultimate solution wil be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 it snows like 36 hrs inland on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That para precip distro map not all that different than what we received from the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Monster 2 inches here in ORH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just looked at the run....looks like it takes it over the canal. I honestly see this as a likely scenario, though perhaps not "tucked" so much into LI and se CT....track over CC canal certainly possible. This run is on the nw edge of "Ray" envelope of viability. I think that run is the most tucked the low could be, and the most "f*cked" that the cp could be. Probably a bit colder than this is what the ultimate solution wil be. I'm just thinking that this could be your classic 2-5" call to a sloppy mess. I'll stick with that forecast until Thursday haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Believe it or not, the players on the field are pretty good. A weenie block over Quebec. srn stream system with energy digging into it on the backside. A nice high preceding the storm. The west coast kind of sucks and not much confluence upstream, but it's a decent look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm just thinking that this could be your classic 2-5" call to a sloppy mess. I'll stick with that forecast until Thursday haha Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I honestly can't believe we are dissecting a model run that has been deemed unusable by the govt and even worse at 6 days away . Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Believe it or not, the players on the field are pretty good. A weenie block over Quebec. srn stream system with energy digging into it on the backside. A nice high preceding the storm. The west coast kind of sucks and not much confluence upstream, but it's a decent look. Yea, I was noting the well positioned +PP on the chart....which is why I think the n and w burbs are going to see a white xmas come tuck or high water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I honestly can't believe we are dissecting a model run that has been deemed unusable by the govt and even worse at 6 days away . Lol I didn't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 models are all over the place with the strength and placement of high pressure and the degree of subsidence or confluence to the north of the storm but in the end I think this is coming north possibly but maybe not quite as far as today's parallel gfs but if it does it would be a sloppy snowfall in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Believe it or not, the players on the field are pretty good. A weenie block over Quebec. srn stream system with energy digging into it on the backside. A nice high preceding the storm. The west coast kind of sucks and not much confluence upstream, but it's a decent look. I was thinking similarly that it doesn't look all too bad at the moment. And the fact that you feel decent at the moment about the players, is a nice feeling. Hey, it's fun to be able to discuss a "Possibility." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Remember, this is storm 1 of potentially 3 transition lows and they may not all be pretty. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I was thinking similarly that it doesn't look all too bad at the moment. And the fact that you feel decent at the moment about the players, is a nice feeling. Hey, it's fun to be able to discuss a "Possibility." Well I don't want to cause you to feel overly confident, but we've had much worse looks before. Like Ray, feeling more of an interior hit, but at 7 days or so out...this is just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well I don't want to cause you to feel overly confident, but we've had much worse looks before. Like Ray, feeling more of an interior hit, but at 7 days or so out...this is just speculation. Oh No, I get you. And I'm not feeling confident at all lol. But I agree with the part that we've seen much worse looks before, and I guess that was my idea/point. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 models are all over the place with the strength and placement of high pressure and the degree of subsidence or confluence to the north of the storm but in the end I think this is coming north possibly but maybe not quite as far as today's parallel gfs but if it does it would be a sloppy snowfall in my location. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GEFS and GGEM ensembles have a good look this far out. GGEM moreso. SE of the BM..but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is GGEM reliable? Don't hear too much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is GGEM reliable? Don't hear too much about it. It's the worst of the major four, I think. Prone to a lot of extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is GGEM reliable? Don't hear too much about it. Well the op can be wild at day 6 for sure, but like any other model....its own ensembles are statistically better than the op at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well I don't want to cause you to feel overly confident, but we've had much worse looks before. Like Ray, feeling more of an interior hit, but at 7 days or so out...this is just speculation. It could just as easily be a complete non-event at this juncture too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GGEM is now on board. Huge shift from the 0z run. Yeah it is a doozy of a storm just se of us. If that ever came back northwest it would be quite a fun 12 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It could just as easily be a complete non-event at this juncture too. Oh yeah, of course. Just my own speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This absolutely cracks me up..That last line is priceless ABOUT THE HUGE SHIFT IN THE 12Z CMC FROM THE 0Z CMCOne of the really big rules that needs to be followed in the weather business ( especially we are forecasting in the medium range) is the **RULE OF 1 SOLUTION*** .Let's say you have five different weather models and all 5 are showing something different. Model A is you a big snowstorm....Model B gives you small snowstorm...... Model C gives you rain... and Model D gives you no precip at all and MODEL E says sunny. For those who do not know the ways of science this can seem all too confusing. But when you have a situation where the other weather models begin to move towards ONE particular solution -- in this case MODEL A... it is often very significant that the original solution that has been showing up for last several model runs by MODEL A ....is far more likely to end up being correct.In this particular case this is exactly was going on with the midday Canadian here. Typically there are some forecasters and weather hobbyists that will fight this trend and say well it doesn't mean much.. Or they will make the argument that that still does not prove the European solution is going to be correct. However those making such an argument are simply telling me that have no idea what they are doing . 12CMC135.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Oh yeah, of course. Just my own speculation. The models have been decent at sniffing this stuff out at long lead times this season so far, though. But we are bound to find one of those systems that looks good at Day 7 only to say what storm by day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro gonna be south of 00z . That actually is good at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Of course model A can change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Of course model A can change too. not if model A is euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well a s/w diving SE in Canada squishes this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'll take it at this stage for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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