SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 With all due respect with how good modeling looks for this away from the water.. That's a really poor forecast I think it's a lot better than your widespread 6"+ that you had on Twitter for SNE. Kevin @TollandKev · 5h5 hours ago 12/21 snowstorm for SNE looks good. As of now expect a moderate event Moderate means at least 6 inches Look, I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen this sort of setup many times before. Light precip isn't going to cut it in a warm BL, and unless we can get heavier precip into the area and/or get a stronger storm to cool the BL(Both things that can happen if the general consensus of guidance changes), I don't see much of anything out of this for the area that I highlighted. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong and end up with a 4-6" event region wide because it would go a long way towards brightening the mood around here, but I just don't see it or see any support from it on guidance. I do think there's a decent chance we see a trend NW with this given that's been the seasonal trend this winter so far and that MillerA's often do trend NW, but again, unless you can cool the BL one way or another, all that means is more rain/white rain. I really hope I can bump this post on Sunday morning and make fun of myself/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Wow that's flat on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think it's a lot better than your widespread 6"+ that you had on Twitter for SNE. Kevin @TollandKev · 5h5 hours ago 12/21 snowstorm for SNE looks good. As of now expect a moderate event Moderate means at least 6 inches Look, I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen this sort of setup many times before. Light precip isn't going to cut it in a warm BL, and unless we can get heavier precip into the area and/or get a stronger storm to cool the BL(Both things that can happen if the general consensus of guidance changes), I don't see much of anything out of this for the area that I highlighted. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong and end up with a 4-6" event region wide because it would go a long way towards brightening the mood around here, but I just don't see it or see any support from it on guidance. I do think there's a decent chance we see a trend NW with this given that's been the seasonal trend this winter so far and that MillerA's often do trend NW, but again, unless you can cool the BL one way or another, all that means is more rain/white rain. I really hope I can bump this post on Sunday morning and make fun of myself/ The BL isn't That warm unless someone was using the GFS which they really shouldn't even be looking at anyway. Secondly..the Euro gives even your area 1-2 inches before a mix/flip. It's not worth getting into anymore detail than that,,but certainly inland and up aren't going to have BL issues in late December with 532 thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Coastalwx has been warning for days, weeks even it feels like, that this system and next one would be rough for some on the coastal plain. I'd take any flakes you can get in this crappy overall pattern as a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The BL isn't That warm unless someone was using the GFS which they really shouldn't even be looking at anyway. Secondly..the Euro gives even your area 1-2 inches before a mix/flip. It's not worth getting into anymore detail than that,,but certainly inland and up aren't going to have BL issues in late December with 532 thicknesses There is no chance that the EURO gives me anywhere near 1-2", even the overdone WxBell maps give you and I 0.0" and they basically count anything that falls from the sky with 850s below 0 as snow. BL is like 35-37 for you on the EURO during most of the precip, that isn't going to do it with 0.03" or so per hour(At best) as liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 There is no chance that the EURO gives me anywhere near 1-2", even the overdone WxBell maps give you and I 0.0" and they basically count anything that falls from the sky with 850s below 0 as snow. BL is like 35-37 for you on the EURO during most of the precip, that isn't going to do it with 0.03" or so per hour(At best) as liquid. Ok dude. Whatever you say. I don't agree...It's going to snow. Plenty of time to determine amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 He's right though. This is incredibly marginal for everyone south of the pike and probably for even more folks than that. Someone pointed out earlier. The weenie snow maps dont even have anything, thats telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Coastalwx has been warning for days, weeks even it feels like, that this system and next one would be rough for some on the coastal plain. I'd take any flakes you can get in this crappy overall pattern as a huge win. Yep, this airmass on the CP has been puke since T-Day. Aside from 8 hrs of ice last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think people like to underestimate the effect of Kevin's elevation because he is such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The problem is also precip intensity. Something with meager rates will show up as warmer BL temps. So a storm may get closer, but esp inland..may look colder because of heavier precip. You guys are going to have a stroke if you keep arguing. It needs a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The problem is also precip intensity. Something with meager rates will show up as warmer BL temps. So a storm may get closer, but esp inland..may look colder because of heavier precip. You guys are going to have a stroke if you keep arguing. It needs a couple of days. If it turns out like the 18z GFS there won't be any precipitation. But still, Kevin is often a few degrees colder than the surrounding area. There are more weenie-esque locations in CT, but people from those places don't post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Gfs was puke.Flat ,disorganized, strung out, and sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We do have a Barkhamsted guy at 1145 ft but he isn't 1/10 of the weenie that Kevin is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Boy once the final rain event comes on 12/27, I fully expect multiple meltdowns on this subforum. I'm just going to sit here like the fat kid on "Stand by me" who started the vomiting at the pie eating contest, just smiling and relaxing with my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We do have a Barkhamsted guy at 1145 ft but he isn't 1/10 of the weenie that Kevin is lol. Who is that, I didn't realize. Yeah, that is probably a better spot. NW hills > NE hills generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Boy once the final rain event comes on 12/27, I fully expect multiple meltdowns on this subforum. I'm just going to sit here like the fat kid on "Stand by me" who started the vomiting at the pie eating contest, just smiling and relaxing with my thoughts. Hmmmm. Reverse psychology. I get it. What is really going to happen is a monster snowstorm. Sounds good Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We do have a Barkhamsted guy at 1145 ft but he isn't 1/10 of the weenie that Kevin is lol. Hes in a great snow spot. NW ct much better area for snow. But to tell me I'm getting an all rain with 532 thicknesses and ground temp around 32 is silly. Again basing this on modeling now. If it changes then it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You're overreacting to my post. I never said they weren't interesting. I said I don't 'lust' after them. gee wiz. The take away comprehension should have been, I'll take them or leave them. More over, the reason being that I have responsibilities as a real adult that don't really give with big snows. I just like interesting weather at the end of the day, anyway. Too many folks on here obsessed with snow and don't really care much for the science and the fact that "weather" is giant array of moving parts. I think you are underestimating a lot of us. While our posts can be witty and weeniesh often, that doesn't reveal why we are in this hobby. I bet the majority are interested in the science. We just aren't always at our computers with the capability of writing elaborate thought provoking posts about why we love the weather. The constant motion of everyday life, busy bees, we check phones to see whats next. Our responses are short, funny, sometimes not so much. But that doesn't and shouldn't reveal who we are. Because deep down, beyond the irrational posting, there is a weather nerd in all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Who is that, I didn't realize. Yeah, that is probably a better spot. NW hills > NE hills generally speaking. Superbolt is his screen name. He got like 9 from the Thanksgiving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One of the few times I actually agree with Kevin when he is talking up snow.... I thought it looked ok for his area. I don't use a crude snow algorithm to determine how a model looks. You see the column is cold enough except right at the surface and you aren't predicting rain for interior SNE near 1,000 feet. Perhaps it looks worse or better as we get closer but that depiction looked fine to me in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Superbolt is his screen name. He got like 9 from the Thanksgiving storm. I'd kill a newborn to live in Barkhamsted. Not only is it a weenie spot, it's also one of the top towns in CT to live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Boy once the final rain event comes on 12/27, I fully expect multiple meltdowns on this subforum. I'm just going to sit here like the fat kid on "Stand by me" who started the vomiting at the pie eating contest, just smiling and relaxing with my thoughts.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 To clarify, I'm not calling for little/no snow for Kevin because of the WxBell snowmaps, they're generally horrible and should never be used to forecast an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One of the few times I actually agree with Kevin when he is talking up snow.... I thought it looked ok for his area. I don't use a crude snow algorithm to determine how a model looks. You see the column is cold enough except right at the surface and you aren't predicting rain for interior SNE near 1,000 feet. Perhaps it looks worse or better as we get closer but that depiction looked fine to me in the interior. Agreed. Big difference possibly in this set-up as modeled between 1,000ft and say BDL. With light rates he can still be snowing and sticking at 1,000ft while 300ft isn't doing anything close to sticking or being meaningful. Huge difference between 32F and 33.5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 To clarify, I'm not calling for little/no snow for Kevin because of the WxBell snowmaps, they're generally horrible and should never be used to forecast an event. I do find it odd those weenie snow maps don't have anything. In all the bigger storms so far this season those maps print out ridiculous snowfall well south of where they should. They have some fun entertainment value though, aside from that no they are not for making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Agreed. Big difference possibly in this set-up as modeled between 1,000ft and say BDL. With light rates he can still be snowing and sticking at 1,000ft while 300ft isn't doing anything close to sticking or being meaningful. Huge difference between 32F and 33.5F.That's exactly what just happened last week. The valley had nothing except a dusting which melted in 2 hours..I mean I'm not saying that is what's going to happen at all with this.It could all go to hell in a hand basket over the next few days..but as of now..that's what it's showing. Here's a pic I took this afternoon. Granted I'm going to lose it tomorrow..but you get down under 800 feet and there's patches in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The problem with CT east of 91 on this euro run has been the issue all season. 950-900. If that happens as modeled, it may flip him to a 33 rain with light rates. If it comes in juicy, it's snow. But as modeled, meh. Not that it means much at this stage. If I lived inland, I would want this closer and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 That's exactly what just happened last week. The valley had nothing except a dusting which melted in 2 hours..I mean I'm not saying that is what's going to happen at all with this.It could all go to hell in a hand basket over the next few days..but as of now..that's what it's showing. Here's a pic I took this afternoon. Granted I'm going to lose it tomorrow..but you get down under 800 feet and there's patches in the shade. Yup, I've been bare ground for days. Most of the area has been. Retention isn't just about elevation though, shade vs sun matters a lot. Your neighborhood seems to be well shaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The problem with CT east of 91 on this euro run has been the issue all season. 950-900. If that happens as modeled, it may flip him to a 33 rain with light rates. If it comes in juicy, it's snow. But as modeled, meh. Not that it means much at this stage. If I lived inland, I would want this closer and stronger. Are you inclined to highly discount that 18z GFS run? It was so much flatter than both itself and the Euro from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are you inclined to highly discount that 18z GFS run? It was so much flatter than both itself and the Euro from 12z. It's probably too flat, but given the time we are looking at....you are still pretty far away in model-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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