powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Might have been somewhat juicier than the GFS but it wasn't too different. Esp considering this is 5 days out. N Vt over to N NH got less on the euro than the GFS. Yeah not too different... 0.15-0.2" up here where the GFS was .3-.4"...noise level at this lead time. I've always liked the widespread light snow idea with this one. Only the EURO had a big storm idea for a run or two, and actually only one run that actually impacted New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I call BS on any poster on this board that claims they have outgrown the 20"+ storms. No offense Tippy, you'd be waxing poetically with everyone else if the ECM just delivered a 2.0" QPF blue bomb. Yeah that is bull diarrhea. LOL. C'mon John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I agree John, the Christmas storm looks dangerous. dangerous you say? how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 May have missed a post on this, but the parallel GFS shows a 997L near the BM at 138h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look like a snowy start to this system for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty nice with the placement of the high.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty nice with the placement of the high.... The high sucks for us, but if it were to develop quicker, the shape or banana like high could help turn winds more nrly. As is, kind of stinks for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 May have missed a post on this, but the parallel GFS shows a 997L near the BM at 138h. Isn't it pretty far south of the benchmark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty nice with the placement of the high.... For the 21st system, or the Xmas system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This thread is the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 For the 21st system, or the Xmas system? At 138... that's the 21st system, I believe. The GFS Para to me looks like it is taking it off the south Jersey coast and moving pretty much due east. The center has to be at about 38N68E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Isn't it pretty far south of the benchmark? That was my initial thought, but then I tried lining up the Lat/Long from the map and it looked pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 starting to look like and advisory type snowfall for the interior high terrain, northern stream seems to get ahead of the southern stream and we don't get a really good clean phase. Still a few decent members on the EC ensembles but the trend is definitely leaning in that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 starting to look like and advisory type snowfall for the interior high terrain, northern stream seems to get ahead of the southern stream and we don't get a really good clean phase. Still a few decent members on the EC ensembles but the trend is definitely leaning in that direction Advisory snowfall beats any kind of rainfall any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This thread is the first system. O.K., Thank You for the clarification :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I call BS on any poster on this board that claims they have outgrown the 20"+ storms. No offense Tippy, you'd be waxing poetically with everyone else if the ECM just delivered a 2.0" QPF blue bomb. You're overreacting to my post. I never said they weren't interesting. I said I don't 'lust' after them. gee wiz. The take away comprehension should have been, I'll take them or leave them. More over, the reason being that I have responsibilities as a real adult that don't really give with big snows. I just like interesting weather at the end of the day, anyway. Too many folks on here obsessed with snow and don't really care much for the science and the fact that "weather" is giant array of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I agree John, the Christmas storm looks dangerous. Hi James, I would steer clear of extreme adjectives for now I get the enthusiasm, but all I intended to say is that the latter system has/had more teleconnector support, and leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Definitely not a fan of the direction that the model guidance is going with this one. Either trending south or into a strung out piece of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing is wrong with a small event with advisory amounts...unless you were getting emotionally invested in a 168 hour solution a couple days ago. If that's the case then you are in the wrong hobby. I wouldn't be spiking footballs on a 120 hour solution either. No, not if I actually received 3-6", but I fear that the more meager system is also going to have BL implications in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing is wrong with a small event with advisory amounts...unless you were getting emotionally invested in a 168 hour solution a couple days ago. If that's the case then you are in the wrong hobby. I wouldn't be spiking footballs on a 120 hour solution either. I think that if everyone got a small event with advisory amounts, no one would be complaining. But the problem is that those who look to get the advisory amounts as currently modeled are those that are for the most part at or above climo for the winter to date, while those who are below climo and have been watching those above climo get smashed are likely going to be on the sidelines again. As a result, the emotional gap which we've been seeing develop between those in NNE/CNE/interior SNE and those on the CP will likely continue to widen, and as a result those on the CP will be searching for anything, something, no matter how far out or how unlikely it is, that can get them what they have yet to see, that is, an accumulating snowfall of more than an inconsequential amount. Could make for some interesting fireworks/meltdowns in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 While we are taking requests, I would like 4 20" storms for N ORH To go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 While we are taking requests, I would like 4 20" storms for N ORH To go please Good idea, ordering chinese right now, thanks for the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Emotional gap? Only Tippy gets that invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Good idea, ordering chinese right now, thanks for the idea A couple poo poo platters with a side of frontogenic forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 well climate is climate we are all adults here and we all know what we are getting in the location we choose to live. Exressing frustration is natural but having a complete meltdown is something that should be controlled as an adult. Why can't we be happy when someone in the forum gets a big hit and we don't, and expect the same thing from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Emotional gap? Only Tippy gets that invested Quite frankly, I'll call bull**** on that one. 18z GFS looked better on early with the energy and ridge, but by hour 87, it's collapsed and it'll be another blah solution. I'm giving it till tomorrows 12z runs(When we have full sampling) before canceling the event for the coastline because there's always the chance that we have the classic midrange crisis as often happens in the poor sampling regions, but for anyone southeast of a line from NWCT to Nrn ORH to coastal ME, this is on life support for more than a slushy inch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think that if everyone got a small event with advisory amounts, no one would be complaining. But the problem is that those who look to get the advisory amounts as currently modeled are those that are for the most part at or above climo for the winter to date, while those who are below climo and have been watching those above climo get smashed are likely going to be on the sidelines again. As a result, the emotional gap which we've been seeing develop between those in NNE/CNE/interior SNE and those on the CP will likely continue to widen, and as a result those on the CP will be searching for anything, something, no matter how far out or how unlikely it is, that can get them what they have yet to see, that is, an accumulating snowfall of more than an inconsequential amount. Could make for some interesting fireworks/meltdowns in the near future. It's also mid-December. We also haven't had a great NNE start to winter in a couple seasons, and relative to normal the coast has done real well since Feb 2013. It's been progressing sort of how climate shows it should. First mountains, then interior then coastal plain by late-Dec. You guys will have plenty of fun in the upcoming pattern once it flips colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Quite frankly, I'll call bull**** on that one. 18z GFS looked better on early with the energy and ridge, but by hour 87, it's collapsed and it'll be another blah solution. I'm giving it till tomorrows 12z runs(When we have full sampling) before canceling the event for the coastline because there's always the chance that we have the classic midrange crisis as often happens in the poor sampling regions, but for anyone southeast of a line from NWCT to Nrn ORH to coastal ME, this is on life support for more than a slushy inch IMO. With all due respect with how good modeling looks for this away from the water.. That's a really poor forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 A couple poo poo platters with a side of frontogenic forcing? LOl, actually ordered 2 Poo poo platters. Yea hopefully Christmas is not general Tso's chicken, hot stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You're overreacting to my post. I never said they weren't interesting. I said I don't 'lust' after them. gee wiz. The take away comprehension should have been, I'll take them or leave them. More over, the reason being that I have responsibilities as a real adult that don't really give with big snows. I just like interesting weather at the end of the day, anyway. Too many folks on here obsessed with snow and don't really care much for the science and the fact that "weather" is giant array of moving parts. Haha I'm just messin' with ya Tippy. I still think every single member on here would put up with the inconvience of a major snowfall, just to be able to experience it. They are still probably the holy grail of New England weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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