Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS kind of has that IVT look as it gets tugged back to the NW IVT's are modeled much, much more often than they actually appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 IVT's are modeled much, much more often than they actually appear. Which is very true, And if you happen to get one, They don't typically end up as modeled, This has more to do with the s/w in the northern stream trying to tug this one back late or snow just from that as the southern stream runs out ahead of it on some of the GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FWIW the Canadian is kind of a late bloomer, but scrapes ern areas. Go with it. Canada knows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well ... as I discussed with you all three days ago ... wanted(want) to see this inside of D4.5 this particular go around, because of the high numbers of waves shorter than rosby scale ... vying for proxy in the flow, interfering; recall: the ECMWF technique of normalizing for perturbation might not be the right approach for enhanced nebularity. That philosophical approach appears to be supported, with latest Euro operational runs backing off the stem-wound bomb nor-easter.... That said, yeah ..there's likely to be an "event" of sort around the 21st... The 12z operational GFS has a negatively tilted weak to midland caliber wave passing over the area, and that should put out a bit of QPF (ptype not withstanding. XMass event is for real... Euro appears west biased as usual for this sort of time lead; which isn't to say the GFS is outright the leader here, but the teleconnectors starting to lean toward favored east solutions for that time frame. Interesting Met to follow... 21st could still come in stronger as we see more relay off the Pac over the next couple of runs, but I am starting to suspect the latter becomes dominant. we'll see. I did wonder about that Tip, that the Xmas system might be the bigger one afterall...whether rain or snow...but a bigger more powerful system than the 21st perhaps. Hey, I hope most of us SNE people can pick up a little white with one of these, I'm not greedy...I'll take 2-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I did wonder about that Tip, that the Xmas system might be the bigger one afterall...whether rain or snow...but a bigger more powerful system than the 21st perhaps. Hey, I hope most of us SNE people can pick up a little white with one of these, I'm not greedy...I'll take 2-4 inches of snow. At this point, yea. But I live for the guns, I want to stuff my face in a huge pie not be sliced and diced with small appetizers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 At this point, yea. But I live for the guns, I want to stuff my face in a huge pie not be sliced and diced with small appetizers. Oh believe me, I would love for the Big Kahuna to show up and pay a nice long visit too...Nothing better than that. But if we can't seem to get that to work, I'd be ok with a more modest event to put us in a nice mood. But I am hoping for 1 big blockbuster this season....you know the 12-18+ type of storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Another possibility to note is sort of a late blooming curl back like some guidance has. That too is possible as the s/w races in and tries to tug it back last second. mm late phase then some backing, perhaps. But I'd like to see a more depressed NAO for a 'tuck-and-latter' scenario. Nothing's impossible though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Which is very true, And if you happen to get one, They don't typically end up as modeled, This has more to do with the s/w in the northern stream trying to tug this one back late or snow just from that as the southern stream runs out ahead of it on some of the GFS runs Don't get me wrong, you can do remarkably well if you end up under one, but they really are featured on guidance a hell of a lot more often than they even appear, much less appear as indicated. I'd only half-bank on seeing one if it's on there within 24 hours of expected appearance, otherwise, they're practically not worth mention in my opinion, for the reason mentioned herein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FWIW(and I really have no idea, supposedly they're decent but I don't see them used much), the CMC ensembles are well NW of it's operational run. 12z GEFS looked pretty meh, but there's a good amount of spread in both directions it looks like. 12z EURO out to 81 looks like it's trying to split the GOA vortex, but might be too little too late. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 mm late phase then some backing, perhaps. But I'd like to see a more depressed NAO for a 'tuck-and-latter' scenario. Nothing's impossible though - I cringe at those... But, beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Don't get me wrong, you can do remarkably well if you end up under one, but they really are featured on guidance a hell of a lot more often than they even appear, much less appear as indicated. I'd only half-bank on seeing one if it's on there within 24 hours of expected appearance, otherwise, they're practically not worth mention in my opinion, for the reason mentioned herein. And they tend to be so narrow when they do show up. Some notable exceptions of course, but I hate to rely on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro looks like an advisory event for the interior of SNE and CNE. CP esp south and east of a BED-IJD line may have some BL issues after a sloppy inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro looks like an advisory event for the interior of SNE and CNE. CP esp south and east of a BED-IJD line may have some BL issues after a sloppy inch or two. From your description, sounds just like what the 12z GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm about ready to bail on the big storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Almost.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 From your description, sounds just like what the 12z GFS showed. Might have been somewhat juicier than the GFS but it wasn't too different. Esp considering this is 5 days out. N Vt over to N NH got less on the euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty much what this has looked like since we started seeing it .3-6 inch type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm about ready to bail on the big storm idea. Is that because successive runs of most models now show a general consensus for little more than some passing snain showers? Or something darker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm about ready to bail on the big storm idea. I had not thought that this event would be particularly big from the get go... fair to middlin' at this point would be nice. That one run of the Euro OP showed a nice storm, but other than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 meh storm, I'm hoping for 3-6" in Halifax,but just like some of us saw it when it first showed up on models. Good job by some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well, at least we can start pretending that the 12z Euro will come to fruition for Christmas (with enough cold air to make it worthwhile). Besides, whats wrong with 2-4 or 3-6 on on the 12/21 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2" and some blue tint at dusk, with flurries in the air is all the post-card I need. Unless there is some real shot at breaking a snow depth record (and for me ...that means sustaining a snow pack between two successive systems), I think I've outgrown the lust for 20" storms. They just get in the way now that I own a home, drive to work, consult at different University campus'... egh. I'd take 30, 4" storms with no melting... That would cool lookin'! But, cheers! Weather is here to placate one's fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro coming E with the xmass system... That one has/had better tele support of the two all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing is wrong with a small event with advisory amounts...unless you were getting emotionally invested in a 168 hour solution a couple days ago. If that's the case then you are in the wrong hobby. I wouldn't be spiking footballs on a 120 hour solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yeah it's not bad. Even a couple would be dandy. I'd take anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I agree John, the Christmas storm looks dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2" and some blue tint at dusk, with flurries in the air is all the post-card I need. Unless there is some real shot at breaking a snow depth record (and for me ...that means sustaining a snow pack between two successive systems), I think I've outgrown the lust for 20" storms. They just get in the way now that I own a home, drive to work, consult at different University campus'... egh. I'd take 30, 4" storms with no melting... That would cool lookin'! But, cheers! Weather is here to placate one's fantasies. Make it 6" and I'll buy! Let's see 180" on the ground.. It would look like Paradise Ranger Station.... but back to topic...what's coming, if it plays out might not be too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing is wrong with a small event with advisory amounts...unless you were getting emotionally invested in a 168 hour solution a couple days ago. If that's the case then you are in the wrong hobby. I wouldn't be spiking footballs on a 120 hour solution either. I know some of us enjoy 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'll feel better when data starts to be sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2" and some blue tint at dusk, with flurries in the air is all the post-card I need. Unless there is some real shot at breaking a snow depth record (and for me ...that means sustaining a snow pack between two successive systems), I think I've outgrown the lust for 20" storms. They just get in the way now that I own a home, drive to work, consult at different University campus'... egh. I'd take 30, 4" storms with no melting... That would cool lookin'! But, cheers! Weather is here to placate one's fantasies. I call BS on any poster on this board that claims they have outgrown the 20"+ storms. No offense Tippy, you'd be waxing poetically with everyone else if the ECM just delivered a 2.0" QPF blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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