40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Modeled to scrape at the moment..discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well the EC ensembles looked pretty sweet. We'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Through hour 78 on the 12z GFS, it's taken some steps towards the EURO in the handling of the pacific energy early on and having lead energy in the MO valley to provide more confluence, but it's still a disorganized mess in the SW. Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 3:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Well the EC ensembles looked pretty sweet. We'll see what 12z does. My call on this is for a track from just se of ACK to bodily over the cape. White Christmas n and w of Boston, congrats MPM-Hubb-Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS says what storm..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:05 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS says what storm..lol. Went from having basically no rex block at 0z to having one so strong at 12z that it shreds the entire thing apart. What a comical model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks confused. I'll take this look though, this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It still try's to get something up here even though its a mess, But seeing it north still is all i take from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 New GFS looks more like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah the paraglider goofus has a better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 tuckie tuckie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 New GFS is a nice rain for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 but a nice snow for the interior and north of the pike, and at the lake, oui? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:28 PM, CoastalWx said: New GFS is a nice rain for Ray. I told you what I thought at the start of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I told you what I thought at the start of the thread. I know. Just stating the output. Actually probably would be snow to mix inland. Maybe end as 33 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Going to be a while before this one resolves itself just like all the others have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:31 PM, CoastalWx said: I know. Just stating the output. Actually probably would be snow to mix inland. Maybe end as 33 rain. Exactly. White xmas n and w of KBOS. I think it will play out pretty similarly to the Para GFS. No, I'm not taking one deterministic run at face value 6 days out....the run fits with my preconceived notion of how things will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GGEM is now on board. Huge shift from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Oh it's coming but not perfect for all. Someone will always have a complaint. Rain so be it, snow so be it. It's a marginal airmass, that alone regardless of track speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. White xmas n and w of KBOS. I think it will play out pretty similarly to the Para GFS. No, I'm not taking one deterministic run at face value 6 days out....the run fits with my preconceived notion of how things will play out. Based on the long and storied track record it has, I would not be putting much stock in the para yet. But that looks like a likely scenario, although I am thinking it will be a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS para swung to a more extreme run with a tight QPF distribution, but moves over ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:36 PM, Roosta said: Oh it's coming but not perfect for all. Someone will always have a complaint. Rain so be it, snow so be it. It's a marginal airmass, that alone regardless of track speaks volumes. Dip it in some eggnog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:36 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Based on the long and storied track record it has, I would not be putting much stock in the para yet. But that looks like a likely scenario, although I am thinking it will be a bit colder. On 12/15/2014 at 4:36 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS para swung to a more extreme run with a tight QPF distribution, but moves over ern MA. Yea, if it went over my area, then it will be colder.....over the cape, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:36 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Based on the long and storied track record it has, I would not be putting much stock in the para yet. But that looks like a likely scenario, although I am thinking it will be a bit colder. In a few short weeks it is all we will have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The new GFS takes a piece of vorticity and really helps to dig and phase this with the original s/w, thus pulling the low north. The EC tries to do this, but confluence forces it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:38 PM, dryslot said: In a few short weeks it is all we will have Hopefully it can figure out how to make it snow more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:42 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Hopefully it can figure out how to make it snow more I have my doubts it will be any better then its predecessor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The translongitudinal GFS has a Pete Repete Ray scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:27 PM, dryslot said: tuckie tuckie Haha that's my new favorite term I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:52 PM, powderfreak said: Haha that's my new favorite term I think. its like the Para wants to carbon copy last week, holy heck that would be something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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