DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i can show you 17 runs of the GFS from NOV 19-23 where ot had NO east coast low for NOV 26 I can show you 16 runs of the GFS days before the dec 9 event where it had NO Low of any kind . Nothing Given these facts for you to argue that the last few of the GFS have no event therefore "thats the ball game " is Just beyond dumb. It tells me .. and many others.. you have clue what the hell you are talking about. One set of model runs? The GFS has been consistent for the past 2-3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What in the world is the para doing at hour 216? A sub 980 LP over Chicago LOL. Got to love this model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What in the world is the para doing at hour 216? A sub 980 LP over Chicago LOL. Got to love this model... guess you people never watched The Day After Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GFS is like Brick from Anchorman. Surprisingly functional, but doesn't make sense sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 0Z 12-16-14 European should be telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS ? 6dasyout.jpg Don't even engage the guy. He has no idea what he is talking about. Writing off this storm and then giving the gfs as vindication, just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM ensemble mean is west of the op run. The low is near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM ensemble mean is west of the op run. The low is near the coast.Nice signal at this range. Makes me even more confident gfs and ukie are out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The gfs can be absolutely terrible sometimes and this season could be one of its worst to date. It did a lot better in the more neutral La Niña state but Euro will have a clear advantage this time. That being said still don't believe this storm will happen as Euro ensembles showed because of unfavorable teleconnections plus a subpar air mass. Have to go with what Coastal said in the New England forums about these transition storms, which this one kind of is. Last few days this month look far more favorable to me than the time frame of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 to call me a moron is just ignorant. More like uniformed.Irony at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro out to 96 hours looks south-west of last nights run. Since I only have 24 hour frames only im comparing it with last nights run edit: much slower run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 here and there...season just started haha. Time for euro10 more min or so, interested to see if still large difference between ecOP and the ensembles. Slowly gaining more traction. Just want small jog west. Ba b y steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Weak low limping east off of OBX by 132 hours. Should be another miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 euro definitely weaker at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Back, Euro is WEAKER/SOUTH. As expected. ENSEMBLES should follow suit. this storm is no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Weak low limping east off of OBX by 132 hours. Should be another miss yes this is not going to do it. much weaker low. I guess that explains it. not giving up entirely on it just losing much hope that I had. too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 500mb setup is world's apart from where it was a day ago. Things have transitioned to a much flatter trough and overall weaker shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 500mb setup is world's apart from where it was a day ago. Things have transitioned to a much flatter trough and overall weaker shortwave.fair enough, but lets c where we r 36 hours and then you can call it off then. If it consistently shows this for 4 straight runs then ok next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Honestly, we will not have a clear idea of what this storm is going to do until at least Wednesday, when the wave reaches the west coast. Models will begin to sample it better by then. Best to just look at the overall pattern and setup....you'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die by each op. model run....especially over the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Back, Euro is WEAKER/SOUTH. As expected. ENSEMBLES should follow suit. this storm is no go its still 5 days out. it could start trending towards a bigger storm tomorrow for all we know. have a good night everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 1004 @ 168 off cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It will be interesting if this storm really misses. It will remind me of a few days before the boxing day blizzard, when we were excited about a storm around the 20th and then models lost it. Only to set up the stage for what was a really nice blizzard on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It will be interesting if this storm really misses. It will remind me of a few days before the boxing day blizzard, when we were excited about a storm around the 20th and then models lost it. Only to set up the stage for what was a really nice blizzard on the east coast. This is said every year, every storm that disappears on the models. Every storm people says this. Oh, I mean it reminds of this, its all b/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is said every year, every storm that disappears on the models. Every storm people says this. Oh, I mean it reminds of this, its all b/s. I didn't say it's going to happen, it just reminded of that event and how we shouldn't worry about a storm missing. What's wrong with that? Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Ridge is not able to amplify enough because you have a kicker low moving across Montana..Flow is pretty progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Is that a low trying to form in the GOM around the 26th with that Cold low up in Hudsons bay ? Low forming over the Rockies region on Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Look at that Ridge on Day 10 on the west coast !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Most of you shouldn't be on here if you all live and die by each run. Try to understand the pattern otherwise you'll become just as bipolar as those Day 5+ runs. I can already imagine the utter chaos when there's a huge threat on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 rest of the run is blah also.... Weenie land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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