Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Trends/models look good today....low placement and high orientation save op GFS scream winter storm for the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Somewhat different? Do you research this evolution is alot more conducive for a major snowstorm on the EC than this past week. We have a well established Rex block and well timed placed 50/50. The Miller A on the EURO just bombs away and has no p type issues to the coast. The GFS if you want to look at it is still a train wreck compared to the EURO. This couldnt be anymore different than last weeks storm my friend Yet the airmass is still just as marginal as before. I think the interior could do pretty well but there'll be issues for the coast. We're still way too far out that the positioning of the Rex block and 50/50 low could shift, which may affect the track/intensity of the storm immensely. No matter how you slice it the threat remains marginal this far out. We'll see what happens in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NYC can get a significant snowfall in December with a positive ao...2008 had a 4 incher with a very positive ao at the time...nao was positive too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 as I said the 12z op ECMWF run was BS 12ZEPS.jpg Very glad to see you still posting here...the thought of some thoughtless poster causing you to throw up your hands and abandon our forum actually went through my mind at work today. You were the best poster at Ne.weather...to Wright...to Eastern...to AmWx...sounds like something out of a 1910's Cubs double play combo...and you might be the best damn met from Portland, Maine to Portland, Oregon...as Jack Torrance would say. And just for reference...and they know me here...I hardly ever say anything particularly good about anyone...so I'm no obsequious sycophant...but I give credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I understand and value your opinion above most everyone else's here, but I think you're letting yourself be married to indices a bit too much at this point. I am illustrated above how other features properly timed can create a de facto block that can lead to us getting a MECS. This is what you're seeing on the Euro and Euro ECS runs. So it is possible and the best model in the world is showing it time and time again. -NAO is the indexed way to achieve blocking, but blocking can be achieved through other means as well. You articulated this very well. I don't see how the 50/50 is going to be fast to leave. For one, the heights in Greenland aren't even that low. But more importantly, we have a really strong Rex Block which slows down the upstream flow and reinforces the strong negative height anomalies downstream (the 50/50 low). Plus, the Rex Block is so strong that its ridge is "bridging" with the ridging out ahead of the 50/50 low, creating a mini "trap". I honestly think that's enough to keep the 50/50 in a pretty good spot. It's almost like a feedback process. Strong Rex Block --> reinforces strong 50/50 low --> increases heights downstream --> creates ridge that bridges with the Rex Block and increases the overall blocking and doesn't allow the 50/50 low to escape --> slows down pattern --> keeps Rex Block from advancing too quickly --> reinforces 50/50 low ... One thing I do worry about is getting a good track (let's say just inside the BM) but the airmass is stale so the coastal plain has a snow to rain to snow scenario and <4" of snow. If we can get this over the BM like some of the Euro ensembles, we'll be fine. If we get this just inside the BM, we need a lot of dynamic cooling and access to as much of the stale cold air as possible -- not impossible, but definitely not easy. Could I end up being wrong? Sure. But I feel good about my opinion. The 18z GEFS shows the ridge bridging pretty well. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSNHEM500mbAnom18090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I understand and value your opinion above most everyone else's here, but I think you're letting yourself be married to indices a bit too much at this point. I have illustrated above how other features properly timed can create a de facto block that can lead to us getting a MECS. This is what you're seeing on the Euro and Euro ECS runs. So it is possible and the best model in the world is showing it time and time again. -NAO is the indexed way to achieve blocking, but blocking can be achieved through other means as well. While I agree with you, it's also good to look at this in historical context. How many big snow storms have we've seen with the indicies the way there are currently? I don't have the statics in front of me, but I'd guess not many at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 While I agree with you, it's also good to look at this in historical context. How many big snow storms have we've seen with the indicies the way there are currently? I don't have the statics in front of me, but I'd guess not many at all. The question is not how many KU level storms we've seen, but how many 6-12"ers. Because those can get lost in the dustbin of history pretty quickly, but would still be a heck of a pre-Christmas hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 While I agree with you, it's also good to look at this in historical context. How many big snow storms have we've seen with the indicies the way there are currently? I don't have the statics in front of me, but I'd guess not many at all. No question about it. However, history has been bucked many times over the past 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The question is not how many KU level storms we've seen, but how many 6-12"ers. Because those can get lost in the dustbin of history pretty quickly, but would still be a heck of a pre-Christmas hit. The February 2013 storm is the only one offhand I know of that dropped 1-2 foot or more amounts with bad indices in the AO/NAO etc, there have been many 6-12 type events though in bad patterns, 1/22/87 may have had at least a positive NAO, the AO may have been negative. Monster events have a hard time happening since the lack of a -NAO often means fast storm movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The February 2013 storm is the only one offhand I know of that dropped 1-2 foot or more amounts with bad indices in the AO/NAO etc, there have been many 6-12 type events though in bad patterns, 1/22/87 may have had at least a positive NAO, the AO may have been negative. Monster events have a hard time happening since the lack of a -NAO often means fast storm movement really OT but why was it that the febuary storm worked out so well with the bad pattern...this was before i really got into weather and obviously it was probably my most memborable storm as its my profile picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para gfs 00z is south and east of the area now. Barely gets moisture into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 gfs is an absolute mess...nothing in terms of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 somebody please explain why everyone is called the GFS a mess? because it isn't showing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 somebody please explain why everyone is called the GFS a mess? because is not showing snow? its a sheared out and squashed disaster its a non event for pretty much everyone on the east coast rain or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 somebody please explain why everyone is called the GFS a mess? because it isn't showing snow? It's always the last model to show a storm when it comes to coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 its a sheared out and squashed disaster its a non event for pretty much everyone on the east coast rain or snow but why would it be a mess? should it be showing something else? In my opiniong a mess is when it doesn't make sense or doesn't reflect an accurate weather data. I'm just trying to understand if the model is messed up and shouldn't be taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 but why would it be a mess? should it be showing something else? In my opiniong a mess is when it doesn't make sense or doesn't reflect an accurate weather data. I'm just trying to understand if the model is messed up and shouldn't be taken into account. what it is showing as a storm is a disorganized squashed weak mess...i dont understand what u dont get about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 but why would it be a mess? should it be showing something else? In my opiniong a mess is when it doesn't make sense or doesn't reflect an accurate weather data. I'm just trying to understand if the model is messed up and shouldn't be taken into account.You're reaching dude, the storm is a sheared out mess on the GFS, quit being so technical. There have been a lot of straw men created here lately and pointless arguments ensue. Let's not continue that please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Any Questions Consult DEEEE-TEEEEEE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Why we are not only using the euro ensembles at this point is beyond me how much has been written about how bad the gfs is in a niño pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM continues the trend with 00z. weaker and south IMHO, the euro will be somewhat like its last run. I think this is trending to a disorganized mess southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 spogh.gif 200.gif Any Questions Consult DEEEE-TEEEEEE! I'd rather read your stuff Tommy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM continues the trend with 00z. weaker and south IMHO, the euro will be somewhat like its last run. I think this is trending to a disorganized mess southern slider. The GGEM looks more west to me...at 144 its way closer to SNE than the 12Z run was at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the ridge out west is crappy on the ggem. also ukmet comes in weaker and south. So basically, UKMET/GGEM/GFS/GFS p vs EURO (who might fold tonight). DT would look bad as he was telling everyone to adjust travel plans for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM continues the trend with 00z. weaker and south IMHO, the euro will be somewhat like its last run. I think this is trending to a disorganized mess southern slider. The Ukie is also disorganized. Still a while to go. Many solutions ahead.The storm is going to depend on the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the ridge out west is crappy on the ggem. also ukmet comes in weaker and south. So basically, UKMET/GGEM/GFS/GFS p vs EURO (who might fold tonight). DT would look bad as he was telling everyone to adjust travel plans for this weekend. Yeah and it's still Monday..a lot can change and will change from now to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the ridge out west is crappy on the ggem. also ukmet comes in weaker and south. So basically, UKMET/GGEM/GFS/GFS p vs EURO (who might fold tonight). DT would look bad as he was telling everyone to adjust travel plans for this weekend. The models could trend back to an amplified solution. Interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The models could trend back to an amplified solution. Interesting week ahead. interesting week maybe in reality, but for me, I am writing this bad boy off. I am not going to lose sleep waiting for the euro when I fear I know what it will show. A good pattern will set up eventually though, or will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 interesting week maybe in reality, but for me, I am writing this bad boy off. I am not going to lose sleep waiting for the euro when I fear I know what it will show. A good pattern will set up eventually though, or will it? Dude, the storm is 5-6 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The Euro won't budge, in general when the Euro craps the bed its ensembles will have had marginal support throughout...the fact they were so amplified leads me to believe it either will come in the same or more NW than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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