Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Great look for the interior as these strong STJ disturbances usually end up further NW than modeled at 144 with no good blocking to keep the solution cold enough for a big snow at the coast. i dont see why the coast couldnt get good snows...seems like alot better of a setup than ur making it seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 is it cold enough though for nyc and the immediate coast? seems like its gunna be a really close call 5 days away, lots will change with regards to track and temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i dont see why the coast couldnt get good snows...seems like alot better of a setup than ur making it seem It is. The rex block stretching across Canada and linking up with the strong 50/50 sets up blocking that acts in lieu of the -NAO. These features were not present for the 11/28 or early December event we had. The -NAO is not the end all be all, but we will certainly enjoy the fruits of one in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean is 4-5 for nyc and 6-7 nw snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go? What would cause it to trend warmer? The features I describe above, if they occur as modeled on the Euro, and as the rest of the models began to move toward today, will result in a colder solution. Not that warming isn't possible...and heck we've sure had that so far this winter, I just don't think going with a gut feeling that it will warm 6 days out is prudent yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean is 4-5 for nyc and 6-7 nw snowfall As you know, though, those are outstanding accums for a mean. The track would lend itself to much more snow. See the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go and no blocking to stop this from creeping north under 120? the rex block across canada, the 50/50 low holding the high in place and keeping cold air around...its not a great setup but it is certainly better than the last two and those were both close calls to the end...i am confident the coast can get snow here if things fall right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i wouldn't call that feature a block... it moves along with the flow and it's a response to the very low heights over alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the rex block across canada, the 50/50 low holding the high in place and keeping cold air around...its not a great setup but it is certainly better than the last two and those were both close calls to the end...i am confident the coast can get snow here if things fall right I disagree actually. It IS a very good setup; almost great. It's not a traditional -NAO setup. IMO, suppression is more of a threat form this than warming. 12/19/09 is a good analog just looking at the 12z Euro evolution. Similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 i wouldn't call that feature a block... it moves along with the flow and it's a response to the very low heights over alaska It is a rex block as you know. It does move along with the flow, but with favorable timing functions just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 not sure yet but the 18z gfs seems like it is a little better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 not sure yet but the 18z gfs seems like it is a little better so far Wouldn't be surprising since the 12z GFS, aloft, began to move toward an evolution similar to the Euro. The par GFS even moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I disagree actually. It IS a very good setup; almost great. It's not a traditional -NAO setup. IMO, suppression is more of a threat form this than warming. 12/19/09 is a good analog just looking at the 12z Euro evolution. Similar. my problrm is the airmass isnt all that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go and no blocking to stop this from creeping north under 120? Exactly but people will believe what they wanna believe. The only good thing thus far has been that the storm tracks have primarily been coastals although this is a somewhat different pattern than past couple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 my problrm is the airmass isnt all that cold... If you deepen like the OP and track to the BM like the ensembles you CCB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Exactly but people will believe what they wanna believe. The only good thing thus far has been that the storm tracks have primarily been coastals although this is a somewhat different pattern than past couple storms. Somewhat different? Do you research this evolution is alot more conducive for a major snowstorm on the EC than this past week. We have a well established Rex block and well timed placed 50/50. The Miller A on the EURO just bombs away and has no p type issues to the coast. The GFS if you want to look at it is still a train wreck compared to the EURO. This couldnt be anymore different than last weeks storm my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 18z gfs is a mess smh...para is more organized and robust than the regular gfs at 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wolf I remember following what you posted last winter and you were very spot on. If the storm bombs out on a bm track think we all may be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Go back and look at past cases in El Nino patterns during December without good blocking to keep the STJ disturbances from riding too far NW from 144hrs to storm time. The big coastal snows were preceded or accompanied by strong -AO or -NAO drops to set the pattern up. Last year was a different situation where we got a moderate snow mid-December all on the fantastic -EPO block providing the Arctic high pressure and cold. But We were lacking blocking on the Atlantic side so the storm eventually rode too far north and limited the potential. quick question for someone that knows...didnt the storm that my profile picture is(febuary 2013 blizzard) happen with a +nao...not saying it has any correlation to anything just saying the -nao is not end all be all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Go back and look at past cases in El Nino patterns during December without good blocking to keep the STJ disturbances from riding too far NW from 144hrs to storm time. The big coastal snows were preceded or accompanied by strong -AO or -NAO drops to set the pattern up. Last year was a different situation where we got a moderate snow mid-December all on the fantastic -EPO block providing the Arctic high pressure and cold. But We were lacking blocking on the Atlantic side so the storm eventually rode too far north and limited the potential. I understand and value your opinion above most everyone else's here, but I think you're letting yourself be married to indices a bit too much at this point. I have illustrated above how other features properly timed can create a de facto block that can lead to us getting a MECS. This is what you're seeing on the Euro and Euro ECS runs. So it is possible and the best model in the world is showing it time and time again. -NAO is the indexed way to achieve blocking, but blocking can be achieved through other means as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 sheesh the 18z gfs is even more of a mess than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wolf I remember following what you posted last winter and you were very spot on. If the storm bombs out on a bm track think we all may be in business Thanks. I think the Euro has been showing how we can be in business for several runs. The tightly clustered mslps at hour 150 of today's ECS run is absurd. You really don't see that so far out. I remain cautiously optimistic about this threat, but some of the concerns posed here are of course valid. It is encouraging to see the other models move toward the Euro's evolution at least. The GGEM ens were west of the suppressed op today. Even the crappy GFS and PGFS began changing their evolutions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 sheesh the 18z gfs is even more of a mess than 12z The GFS has a long standing issue with STJ disturbances and even more issues with miller a storms. It's not wish casting...it's the truth. I caution you to avoid it until inside of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GFS has a long standing issue with STJ disturbances and even more issues with miller a storms. It's not wish casting...it's the truth. I caution you to avoid it until inside of 84 hours. the para looks ALOT better than the regular gfs and alot more organized...worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the para looks ALOT better than the regular gfs and alot more organized...worlds apart It does seem that the PGFS is better than the GFS, but that's not saying much. It feels like the GFS/PGFS know where they need to end up with this system...they just can't quite figure how to get there yet. Give it another 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 para looks warm for most of us based on tropical tidbits maps...994 southeast of long island at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It does seem that the PGFS is better than the GFS, but that's not saying much. It feels like the GFS/PGFS know where they need to end up with this system...they just can't quite figure how to get there yet. Give it another 2 days.By wednesday if the EURO OP/ensembles are still honking its time to take threat seriously. The GFS and its step cousin PARA are just chasing their tail right now with the evolution of the 21st storm. the ECMWF is astounding in the 96-120hr time period and by wednesday 12z it WILL be in that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 para looks warm for most of us based on tropical tidbits maps...994 southeast of long island at 156 Big step towards a EURO solution still while the OP GFS continues to be lost. Miller A systems go with the EURO and not with the american models. PB GFI can back me up on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para - don't worry about temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 18z NAVGEM .... is now on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.