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December 20 - 21 Coastal Storm Threat


jm1220

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Great look for the interior as these strong STJ disturbances usually end up further NW than modeled at 144

with no good blocking to keep the solution cold enough for a big snow at the coast.

i dont see why the coast couldnt get good snows...seems like alot better of a setup than ur making it seem

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i dont see why the coast couldnt get good snows...seems like alot better of a setup than ur making it seem

It is. The rex block stretching across Canada and linking up with the strong 50/50 sets up blocking that acts in lieu of the -NAO. These features were not present for the 11/28 or early December event we had. The -NAO is not the end all be all, but we will certainly enjoy the fruits of one in January.

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What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go?

What would cause it to trend warmer? The features I describe above, if they occur as modeled on the Euro, and as the rest of the models began to move toward today, will result in a colder solution. Not that warming isn't possible...and heck we've sure had that so far this winter, I just don't think going with a gut feeling that it will warm 6 days out is prudent yet.

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What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go and no blocking to

stop this from creeping north under 120?

the rex block across canada, the 50/50 low holding the high in place and keeping cold air around...its not a great setup but it is certainly better than the last two and those were both close calls to the end...i am confident the coast can get snow here if things fall right

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the rex block across canada, the 50/50 low holding the high in place and keeping cold air around...its not a great setup but it is certainly better than the last two and those were both close calls to the end...i am confident the coast can get snow here if things fall right

I disagree actually. It IS a very good setup; almost great. It's not a traditional -NAO setup. IMO, suppression is more of a threat form this than warming. 12/19/09 is a good analog just looking at the 12z Euro evolution. Similar.

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I disagree actually. It IS a very good setup; almost great. It's not a traditional -NAO setup. IMO, suppression is more of a threat form this than warming. 12/19/09 is a good analog just looking at the 12z Euro evolution. Similar.

my problrm is the airmass isnt all that cold...

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What's going to stop the coast from trending warmer with 144 hrs to go and no blocking to

stop this from creeping north under 120?

Exactly but people will believe what they wanna believe. The only good thing thus far has been that the storm tracks have primarily been coastals although this is a somewhat different pattern than past couple storms.

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Exactly but people will believe what they wanna believe. The only good thing thus far has been that the storm tracks have primarily been coastals although this is a somewhat different pattern than past couple storms.

Somewhat different? Do you research this evolution is alot more conducive for a major snowstorm on the EC than this past week. We have a well established Rex block and well timed placed 50/50. The Miller A on the EURO just bombs away and has no p type issues to the coast. The GFS if you want to look at it is still a train wreck compared to the EURO. This couldnt be anymore different than last weeks storm my friend

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Go back and look at past cases in El Nino patterns during December without good blocking to keep the STJ

disturbances from riding too far NW from 144hrs to storm time. The big coastal snows were preceded 

or accompanied by strong -AO or -NAO drops to set the pattern up. Last year was a different situation where

we got a moderate snow mid-December all on the fantastic -EPO block providing the Arctic high pressure

and cold. But We were lacking blocking on the Atlantic side so the storm eventually rode too far north

and limited the potential.

quick question for someone that knows...didnt the storm that my profile picture is(febuary 2013 blizzard) happen with a +nao...not saying it has any correlation to anything just saying the -nao is not end all be all

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Go back and look at past cases in El Nino patterns during December without good blocking to keep the STJ

disturbances from riding too far NW from 144hrs to storm time. The big coastal snows were preceded 

or accompanied by strong -AO or -NAO drops to set the pattern up. Last year was a different situation where

we got a moderate snow mid-December all on the fantastic -EPO block providing the Arctic high pressure

and cold. But We were lacking blocking on the Atlantic side so the storm eventually rode too far north

and limited the potential.

I understand and value your opinion above most everyone else's here, but I think you're letting yourself be married to indices a bit too much at this point. I have illustrated above how other features properly timed can create a de facto block that can lead to us getting a MECS. This is what you're seeing on the Euro and Euro ECS runs. So it is possible and the best model in the world is showing it time and time again. -NAO is the indexed way to achieve blocking, but blocking can be achieved through other means as well.

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Wolf I remember following what you posted last winter and you were very spot on. If the storm bombs out on a bm track think we all may be in business

Thanks. I think the Euro has been showing how we can be in business for several runs. The tightly clustered mslps at hour 150 of today's ECS run is absurd. You really don't see that so far out. I remain cautiously optimistic about this threat, but some of the concerns posed here are of course valid. It is encouraging to see the other models move toward the Euro's evolution at least. The GGEM ens were west of the suppressed op today. Even the crappy GFS and PGFS began changing their evolutions today.

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The GFS has a long standing issue with STJ disturbances and even more issues with miller a storms. It's not wish casting...it's the truth. I caution you to avoid it until inside of 84 hours. 

the para looks ALOT better than the regular gfs and alot more organized...worlds apart

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the para looks ALOT better than the regular gfs and alot more organized...worlds apart

It does seem that the PGFS is better than the GFS, but that's not saying much. :) It feels like the GFS/PGFS know where they need to end up with this system...they just can't quite figure how to get there yet. Give it another 2 days.

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It does seem that the PGFS is better than the GFS, but that's not saying much. :) It feels like the GFS/PGFS know where they need to end up with this system...they just can't quite figure how to get there yet. Give it another 2 days.

By wednesday if the EURO OP/ensembles are still honking its time to take threat seriously. The GFS and its step cousin PARA are just chasing their tail right now with the evolution of the 21st storm. the ECMWF is astounding in the 96-120hr time period and by wednesday 12z it WILL be in that range
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