December 20 - 21 Coastal Storm Threat

[IsentropicLift]

Terrible looking? Have you ever seen a shortwave evolve northeastward from the southwest US under some blockiness?

 

If you think the H5 evolution is terrible looking, well, it's time to log off. 

Well I think the confusion here is because it's such a different look than 00z. I guess the argument can be made that at 108 hours it won't end up verifying as flat.

[earthlight]

Well I think the confusion here is because it's such a different look than 00z. I guess the argument can be made that at 108 hours it won't end up verifying as flat.

 

Sometimes it's good to think about what you're posting before you post it. You probably shouldn't say the evolution aloft is "terrible" if it, in fact, isn't terrible. 

[BoulderWX]

Why is this kid allowed to post awful information and wrong analysis of model info? It has driven everyone away.

just ignore his posts - I know it's difficult at times, but there is still a lot of good information to be gained here if you're able to filter through some of the less useful info. 

 

Euro @ H5 was not a bad at all IMO - its also 5-6 days out...

[donsutherland1]

How far north does it come with light snow?

Some qpf figures:

 

Atlantic City: 0.08"

Baltimore: 0.08"

Belmar: 0.02"

Boston: 0.01"

Charlottesville: 0.30"

Islip: 0.02"

New York City: None

Newark: None

Norfolk: 0.93"

Philadelphia: 0.01"

Raleigh: 1.19"

Richmond: 0.91"

Washington, DC: 0.15"

Wilmington, DE: 0.02"

 

Note: Not all the qpf is snow.

[Weathergun]

There's also another shortwave that digs down from SE Canada, that gives this storm nudge east at 144hrs.

[bluewave]

Notice how from 48 through 96 hours, the North Atlantic ridge links up with the Rex Block which doesn't allow the 50/50 low to leave that quickly. The Euro has been doing that for several runs in a row. 

 

The notion that we have to have some big -NAO in order to keep a 50/50 low around long enough for a snowy solution is just wrong, IMO. 

 

The chances of that occurring in that manner without at least being proceeded by a -NAO or -AO are unlikely

and as we get closer more can go wrong than right. Too much has to go correctly here for a heavy snow event

right at the coast to verify. If the Euro comes further west in later runs, then  the chances of finding that exact

sweet spot for the city and coast without being too warm are small for a heavy snow event. But that's

not to say that it can't snow.

[IsentropicLift]

Sometimes it's good to think about what you're posting before you post it. You probably shouldn't say the evolution aloft is "terrible" if it, in fact, isn't terrible. 

I should have been more specific about what I was talking about. I agree that it's a pretty classic setup at day 4-5. It ends up flat. That's what I was talking about.

[Allsnow]

Because we went from a negatively tilted trough at 00z to a flat neutral trough this run. It's weak sauce until it's too far northeast.

It's 990 se of our area lol

[DiehardFF]

Is the confluence preventing precip pressing north?

[rossi]

I should have been more specific about what I was talking about. I agree that it's a pretty classic setup at day 4-5. It ends up flat. That's what I was talking about.

you should do less posting and more listening like the rest

of us weenies.

[IsentropicLift]

It's 990 se of our area lol

It's actually 976mb when it's near 66W.

[IsentropicLift]

you should do less posting and more listening like the rest

of us weenies.

It's funny how I make one mistake and people are on me like yellowjackets on fruit punch, yet others never get called out.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro evolution at 12z is now not too far off from December 2009...except the ULL is too far south over Eastern Canada.

There are some similarities to that and 2/83 which 12/09 strongly resembled, that no dig big amplification with seemingly little digging or phasing at 500mb is evident

[PB GFI]

It's actually 976mb when it's near 66W.

And what does that tell you ?  This is likely to be a bomb , it goes from 997 - 972 in 24 hrs . That`s a mature system .

A few meter height rises along the coast and this thing comes .

 

Confluence is timing 6 days out and will not stay in 1 spot  as that 50 - 50 will move around in the modeling .

 

Not sure what`s not to like this .... it`s a BOMB if u ask me .

[IsentropicLift]

And what does that tell you ?  This is likely to be a bomb , it goes from 997 - 972 in 24 hrs . That`s a mature system .

A few meter height rises along the coast and this thing comes .

 

Confluence is timing 6 days out and will not stay in 1 spot  as that 50 - 50 will move around in the modeling .

 

Not sure what`s not to like this .... it`s a BOMB if u ask me .

Yes, it bombs out, well offshore.

[SnoSki14]

It's funny how I make one mistake and people are on me like yellowjackets on fruit punch, yet others never get called out.

Scapegoat mentality. But that one post about a terrible H5 went too far.

[wkd]

It's funny how I make one mistake and people are on me like yellowjackets on fruit punch, yet others never get called out.

 

" you should do less posting and more listening like the rest

of us weenies."

[IsentropicLift]

Scapegoat mentality. But that one post about a terrible H5 went too far.

It was quickly corrected. Not sure what the big fuss is all about. It will likely be different next run anyway. Hopefully Allsnow is awake to do PBP.

[SnoSki14]

The chances of that occurring in that manner without at least being proceeded by a -NAO or -AO are unlikely

and as we get closer more can go wrong than right. Too much has to go correctly here for a heavy snow event

right at the coast to verify. If the Euro comes further west in later runs, then the chances of finding that exact

sweet spot for the city and coast without being too warm are small for a heavy snow event. But that's

not to say that it can't snow.

This is definitely something to keep in mind especially since we've already seen how unfavorable teleconnections yield an unfavorable solution. What I've learned and seen through all these storms is if the pattern looks favorable aloft then the storms will follow but if it looks unfavorable then they won't. If it's a powder keg setup like it was in Late Dec 2010 then storms will follow same goes for last January into February.

There are a few exceptions to the rule but the line is very thin.

[supermeh]

12z euro ensembles west of the op and west of last night's ensembles.

[NEG NAO]

WPC in its afternoon update has reduced precip amounts significantly in the metro to between 0. 25 to 0.50

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1418674052

[IsentropicLift]

12z euro ensembles west of the op and west of last night's ensembles.

Yeah, looks like it tracks very close to the benchmark.

[DTWXRISK]

 as I said   the 12z  op   ECMWF  run  was  BS

 

[NEG NAO]

Yeah, looks like it tracks very close to the benchmark.

maybe we should dust off some of the old snow storm threads from years gone by such as the 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard threads same type of scenario here - some models were too far east several days away and we all know what ended up verifying in the end ............I am also amazed that WPC gave into the 12Z Euro run and didn't even wait to see its ensembles before reducing precip amounts in the metro

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1418674052

[Allsnow]

Beautiful look on the 12z ensembles

[PB GFI]

When you see 997  to 972 in 24 hours think CCB if you want to know where your cold air is.

[Superstorm93]

Definitely one of the tighter spreads I've seen from the EPS @ Day 5.  

 

[chietanen]

Cluster . That`s tight .

 

Just posted something similar in the NW 'burbs forum (sans map) about the position one frame later. Definitely a nice look for 6 days out.

[Nygmen]

is it cold enough though for nyc and the immediate coast? seems like its gunna be a really close call

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

is it cold enough though for nyc and the immediate coast? seems like its gunna be a really close call

The mean is a bit warm as it usually is. The track itself is a coastal snow track no ifs ands or buts. This is one of the more classic MECS tracks for a mean 6 days out that you may ever see, in lieu of the clustering. Really something.