IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 hr 162 1000mb over Long Island, 700mb low develops right over NYC so we're likely dry slotted on the coast for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z Para ends up being a coastal hugger. Inland areas do really well. Rain for the coastal areas. What a difference from the 12z op run. Huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z Para ends up being a coastal hugger. Inland areas do really well. Rain for the coastal areas. What a difference from the 12z op run. Huge difference. They should just utilize one GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This storm is no hurry, CCB develops and hammers NYC and points west early Monday morning. BL is going to be an issue again, especially for NJ and coastal NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z Para ends up being a coastal hugger. Inland areas do really well. Rain for the coastal areas. What a difference from the 12z op run. Huge difference. With the 50-50 low retreating fast, coastal hugger is definitely a possibility. I think our one chance is the progressive nature of the pattern-if a kicker can boot the developing low east enough to make it track near the BM. Otherwise, a flatter storm will be too weak to cool the column and there will be an easterly fetch to warm us up, and a coastal hugger brings warm air and rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looking at 12z GFS chances of a rainstorm have went down with that look, either suppressed/no storm or mostly snowstorm. Oddly like the look of the GFS at this point for a storm. I don't know how anyone could like the look of the OP GFS. If you were referring to the PGFS, it still has a lot of work to do in order to produce something meaningful outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GGEM is now on board. Huge shift from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This storm is no hurry, CCB develops and hammers NYC and points west early Monday morning. BL is going to be an issue again, especially for NJ and coastal NY. Any idea where the rain/snow line sets up? Euro seems to have it running right along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Any idea where the rain/snow line sets up? Euro seems to have it running right along I-95. It retreats into Upstate NY initially and then sinks southeast towards the city, never really making it until the low reaches LI and by that point it's probably dry slot. The BL is warm for just about everyone so it's probably a rain/snow mix until after the low reaches New England and we hope for the difficult to forecast backlash snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Much of what this shows as snow falling over NNJ and SE NY is with surface temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GGEM is now on board. Huge shift from the 0z run. It's sprinkles/flurries at best. passes southeast of the benchmark. It even misses the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's sprinkles/flurries at best. passes southeast of the benchmark. It even misses the twin forks. It's still a big shift from the 0z run where it had basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the usually warm biased GGEM looks pretty cold right now. Euro as well, maybe their finer grid is picking up on some of the colder air being drawn in from NE and also collapsing from the west from high moving se from western lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's still a big shift from the 0z run where it had basically nothing. That's because it's a highly erratic model which at times scores worse than the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the usually warm biased GGEM looks pretty cold right now. Euro as well, maybe their finer grid is picking up on some of the colder air being drawn in from NE and also collapsing from the west from high moving se from western lakes. It's cold because the system passes hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The other models finally catching on to the costal storm idea now...I wouldn't get work up over anything more then that...euro will be more important today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Saturday will look and feel like snow as part one of system distintergrates to our sw and reverse laterals to the nw lobe which might produce for us all day Sunday. BTW check out that NYE's fantasy mess at end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Saturday will look and feel like snow as part one of system distintergrates to our sw and reverse laterals to the nw lobe which might produce for us all day Sunday. BTW check out that NYE's fantasy mess at end of run. GFS shows a GLC for both Christmas and NYE. Weenie land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS shows a GLC for both Christmas and NYE. Weenie land though. Switch consoles to atari GFS and you have rain to snow on Christmas hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS shows a GLC for both Christmas and NYE. Weenie land though. Better GLC now and BM later. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Can we please try and keep this thread on topic? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z gefs have the storm going off the Nc/Sc boarder with light snow here...temps are cold. Nothing is set yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We're gonna make a run at wettest December if we get more coastals. Im thinking mostly rain yet again because of a poor airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 MISSING the point here big time It's sprinkles/flurries at best. passes southeast of the benchmark. It even misses the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Euro at 102 hours looks good. Big storm developing near the TX/LA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 same as before .. if its GFS model and its east coast winter storm then the GFS had NO clue NONE until 84 hrs out 12z gefs have the storm going off the Nc/Sc boarder with light snow here...temps are cold. Nothing is set yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 MISSING the point here big time The point is that I could care less what the GGEM shows at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ABOUT THE HUGE SHIFT IN THE 12Z CMC FROM THE 0Z CMCOne of the really big rules that needs to be followed in the weather business ( especially we are forecasting in the medium range) is the **RULE OF 1 SOLUTION*** .Let's say you have five different weather models and all 5 are showing something different. Model A is you a big snowstorm....Model B gives you small snowstorm...... Model C gives you rain... and Model D gives you no precip at all and MODEL E says sunny. For those who do not know the ways of science this can seem all too confusing. But when you have a situation where the other weather models begin to move towards ONE particular solution -- in this case MODEL A... it is often very significant that the original solution that has been showing up for last several model runs by MODEL A ....is far more likely to end up being correct.In this particular case this is exactly was going on with the midday Canadian here. Typically there are some forecasters and weather hobbyists that will fight this trend and say well it doesn't mean much.. Or they will make the argument that that still does not prove the European solution is going to be correct. However those making such an argument are simply telling me that have no idea what they are doing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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