WeatherFox Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Did we just trade 1 SW for another. Does the front runner the 21st get sheared out only to have the follower on the 23rd be the stronger of the 2 ? Why not? anything at this time range is possible. "Live by the models, die by the models". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The PGFS develops the trailing shortwave. It's pretty weak and most of the moisture goes towards SNE but it's 1004mb about 75 miles SE of ACY. Again, not bad position wise imo, a system to monitor in future runs for any strengthening and more favorable track changes for the NYC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS is still a big miss GFS is still not catching on, its going to come in slower, however this still doesn't mean a snowstorm, but the gfs is clearly off with timing and track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The Euro is leaving behind a trailing vort, it's over Oklahoma at hour 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 And the thread goes silent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WHAT WENT WRONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WHAT WENT WRONG ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png Great explanation. Hopefully the cutter sets the stage for the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WAS THE GFS CORRECT THIS TIME? . Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A. but Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50. IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We should have seen this coming days ago. You can't fight the pattern. Sure flukes happen but there's a reason they're called flukes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 WAS THE GFS CORRECT THIS TIME? . Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A. but Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50. IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong. The PAC is sparse in it`s sampling . It`s not like you missed something . Monday at 12z the ensemble cluster at OBX 6 days on the Euro was as tight as you could have asked for . Once the PAC got sampled better all the models decoupled . It just so happened that the GFS which is always flat got it right as the upper air pattern went to the model and not the other way around . In the face of a 3 SD above normal PNA we have seen the seen GFS shoot SWs due east . Let them all buy it in the upcoming NEG EPO/AO regime and see how they get burned . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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