Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 More like a blind squirrel finding a nut imo... OTS solutions DO happen, the GFS' progessive bias will end up making it seem like it had a clue with this system... One things for sure, Euro certainly didn't score coup. Just my thoughts. Did you ever think maybe it's not over yet? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Now watch it go from nothing to a big storm? If so, it wouldn't be the first time. After all it is the GFS. Not unusual at 144-96 hours to see these systems drop out of the picture on the GFS and other models for three to even six or seven runs. The models are notoriously poor at handling systems just prior to their moving in from off the Pacific. I would not write this time-frame totally off just yet. Much will be dependent on the durability of any west coast ridge and the 50/50 low. The models may be singing a different tune by this time tomorrow night....we'll see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The evolution of this system could affect this system after it depending on what happens. A lot of pieces will be getting shuffled around as our pattern begins to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 More like a blind squirrel finding a nut imo... OTS solutions DO happen, the GFS' progessive bias will end up making it seem like it had a clue with this system... One things for sure, Euro certainly didn't score coup. Just my thoughts. Yeah, agreed. The GFS will tend to score coups in a progressive pattern. I think it was last winter that it was able to do so with the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Did you ever think maybe it's not over yet? WX/PT I didn't say it was over, I was just saying that assuming a weak solution verified it wouldn't be because the GFS had a supreme handling of the situation but more likely because of its biases at work especially during the time frame when the ECMWF was showing a SECS/MECS. Referring to the Euro, I don't believe anyone can make the argument that it can score coup for this event considering it either will 1. Result in waffling or 2. Result in going from a huge storm to nothing. I still give this until Thursday, I agree with your following post that a lot simply relies on the setup out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro shows a 1010mb low south of long island at Hr 144. Warm 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro shows a 1010mb low south of long island at Hr 144. Warm 850s.encouraging... If we could get a low of 999 or lower we could have a storm in our hands. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Encouraging? Yeah, no. A low that is more or less average sea-level pressure is not encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Its encouraging that it still has the storm when no other guidance actually does. This run of the model I believe also moved things back in time cause it was a Saturday into Sunday storm ..now it looks more a Sunday into Monday.. So that gives more time to work things out... Still do not like the fact that the flow is too fast and that does not leave any room for amplification like we were seeing a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 IMO, it is not encouraging given where we were a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 IMO, it is not encouraging given where we were a couple days ago.we just simply can't call the storm off especially since it's been trending slower. Yes it has been trending like this storm was going to miss but tonight's run means nothing if we don't start trending towards a snowier solution (bigger storm) we need a good track to have the storm really amplify. And the coastal plains do that since the storm has somewhat went through land (Georgia, Alabama). We need a benchmark track that could slow it down and let the trough sling it northeast with enough amplification to give us a significant 12-16 hour storm. I still think there's hope here. All signs point to the pattern of this seasons nor'easters. It may be warmer but it's still not going to be warmer than last weeks nor'easter cause it's closer to solstice. Put it this way there's a good chance it may snow in NYC this weekend. At least 60%Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Its encouraging that it still has the storm when no other guidance actually does. This run of the model I believe also moved things back in time cause it was a Saturday into Sunday storm ..now it looks more a Sunday into Monday.. So that gives more time to work things out... Still do not like the fact that the flow is too fast and that does not leave any room for amplification like we were seeing a couple days ago Later timeframe is not good because the 50/50 will move out and the cold air source with it. Hate to say it but barring major changes beginning today, this particular threat is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Agreed and it seems to be completly off the table for the time period predicted in this thread 20 -21 - don't know whats up yet with that low on our doorstep to the east on Tuesday morning - also the Christmas eve storm as of now is a cutter that will send a cold front through the area on the 25th which returns us to a much colder pattern - hopefully the cold air will not completely overwhelm the pattern and cause the southern stream to be suppresed as the 6Z GFS is hinting at - also unfortunately we have to keep watching the GFS because until further notice it seems to have a better handle on the pattern - BUT that may still change http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014121706&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=307 GFS lucked out with this storm with its progressive bias. As we get deeper into the season in a weak el nino the EURO will start to consistently beat the GFS. GFS does good with systems northern stream driven but CONSISTENTLY the EURO schools the GFS in a weak el nino with southern stream involvement. This "coup" by the GFS does not change my models choice for the winter. After this winter we will look at the verification scores for DJFM and we will see what model had the highest verification rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles look way better than the op for this storm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 encouraging... If we could get a low of 999 or lower we could have a storm in our hands. Sent from my iPhone We need a stronger upper level system to create cold air aloft and dynamics to keep it snow for places near the coast, and a stronger low to force a more northerly wind. A lot can still happen but we need a lot more development than this for it to be more than just a mix or light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles look way better than the op for this storm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm We need a stronger upper level system to create cold air aloft and dynamics to keep it snow for places near the coast, and a stronger low to force a more northerly wind. A lot can still happen but we need a lot more development than this for it to be more than just a mix or light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 we just simply can't call the storm off especially since it's been trending slower. Yes it has been trending like this storm was going to miss but tonight's run means nothing if we don't start trending towards a snowier solution (bigger storm) we need a good track to have the storm really amplify. And the coastal plains do that since the storm has somewhat went through land (Georgia, Alabama). We need a benchmark track that could slow it down and let the trough sling it northeast with enough amplification to give us a significant 12-16 hour storm. I still think there's hope here. All signs point to the pattern of this seasons nor'easters. It may be warmer but it's still not going to be warmer than last weeks nor'easter cause it's closer to solstice. Put it this way there's a good chance it may snow in NYC this weekend. At least 60% Sent from my iPhone A low near the benchmark doesn't mean snow. It only means snow in this pattern if the airmass is cold enough or there are dynamics which bring cold air down. A weak low just means light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Too many Mets and news outlets hammering home the idea this threat is over...big mistake...its too early yet to be flaunting the idea we're off the hook...after 00Z tonight i'd feel more confident but we could potentially see a 180 today with all the data being sampled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Too many Mets and news outlets hammering home the idea this threat is over...big mistake...its too early yet to be flaunting the idea we're off the hook...after 00Z tonight i'd feel more confident but we could potentially see a 180 today with all the data being sampled now. fwiw comparing the nam init to 12 hour forecasts from the 00z models the southern disturbance is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LISnowLover Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Too many Mets and news outlets hammering home the idea this threat is over...big mistake...its too early yet to be flaunting the idea we're off the hook...after 00Z tonight i'd feel more confident but we could potentially see a 180 today with all the data being sampled now. My thoughts exactly, Goose. Forgive me for being a noob, but didn't the Boxing Day 2010 storm get written off 5 days in advance, only to come back to life within 24-48 hours of the event? I am NOT saying that is the analog to use here, but the majority of the major players of this weekend's disturbance haven't really even gotten on the table yet. Too early to completely write it off. Correct me/educate me if I'm wrong, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 fwiw comparing the nam init to 12 hour forecasts from the 00z models the southern disturbance is stronger I did notice that, by NAM standard's its probably not amplified enough but if it were to amplify more over the course of a day or two it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 My thoughts exactly, Goose. Forgive me for being a noob, but didn't the Boxing Day 2010 storm get written off 5 days in advance, only to come back to life within 24-48 hours of the event? I am NOT saying that is the analog to use here, but the majority of the major players of this weekend's disturbance haven't really even gotten on the table yet. Too early to completely write it off. Correct me/educate me if I'm wrong, please! The pattern was way better for that, ridging out west was not in the best spot but it was a better setup. I've noticed that when models lose or suddenly start seeing a system around Day 5-6 that often times there is some sort of move back the other direction inside Day 4..its not always enough to be significant but it does seem that if a drastic change occurs around 120-144 hours that change sometimes is mitigated in the end towards the orginal idea...its likely due to data issues over the Pac and NWRN Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 My thoughts exactly, Goose. Forgive me for being a noob, but didn't the Boxing Day 2010 storm get written off 5 days in advance, only to come back to life within 24-48 hours of the event? I am NOT saying that is the analog to use here, but the majority of the major players of this weekend's disturbance haven't really even gotten on the table yet. Too early to completely write it off. Correct me/educate me if I'm wrong, please! There was a huge Greenland block then which slowed down the pattern enough to allow the jet streams to phase over the MS Valley, and turn the storm just soon enough to nail us. The pattern this time is much different. Could the storm still happen? Sure, but we'll need to see the disturbances trend a lot stronger over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nam is going with a secs for Sunday as seen on the dgex... I will stick my tune and say euro,uk,met and gfs are out to lunch. Verbatim it's rain for just about everyone on the forum. The flow aloft is southwesterly so lots of mid level warm air is brought in, and it's essentially a surge of moderate rain for a few hours and that's it despite a not too bad low track. A low offshore doesn't mean snow in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nam is going with a secs for Sunday as seen on the dgex... I will stick my tune and say euro,uk,met and gfs are out to lunch. A mod already deleted your other post on the dgex and my response. Did you not get the hint man? This is wrong, wrong, wrong on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS is still a big miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I understand the instinct of some amateurs to want to play with the big boys & girls ( Red Taggers) but perhaps a little thought before speaking out would be beneficial to both yourselves & the forum. If you dont understand basic trough/ ridge dynamics & believe Met. to be simply about posting a model or 2 - Eg. the NAM because it suits your Snow weenism- it might behoove you to remain silent and learn! Nothing wrong with saying I Dont know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 this is an improvement over previous runs... the second 500mb s/w slides south of us instead of to our NW. it's not far from being much better precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Did we just trade 1 SW for another. Does the front runner the 21st get sheared out only to have the follower on the 23rd be the stronger of the 2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The PGFS develops the trailing shortwave. It's pretty weak and most of the moisture goes towards SNE but it's 1004mb about 75 miles SE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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