IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 12z PGFS is probably going to end up differently, it's quite amped up at 93hrs over the central Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Ignore Gfs it broke off the northern vort between 36 - 50 hrs.... it's BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm glad DT is here to correctly analyze the models. There is too much negativity in this forum. A couple of things. DT isn't in our area, so what might work for him won't necessarily work for us. Two, the Euro ens from last night were significantly worse for us than 12z yesterday. The track is still decent, but the low is much weaker, and the flow much flatter. There are also lots of clustered low pressures well west of the mean, some of which are inland. It wasn't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Major differences between the GFS OP and the PGFS. It's even more amped up than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 12z PGFS is probably going to end up differently, it's quite amped up at 93hrs over the central Plains. Heights along the EC are higher and it will likely be a wet solution, though it looks like it will be more stormy. Same issue with the PAC energy flattening the ridge upstream, but not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Rain and snow showers on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Closes off at 500mb over western IL at hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 By 00z Sunday it's flatter than the 06z run. In any event, it's going to be wetter than the regular GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 1016mb near Wilmington NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Light stuff into the area by hour 117, probably virga. BL is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Broad low east of OBX hour 120. Some scattered moisture in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm so glad I'm not a mod anymore. Man, you leave for a few years and everything stays the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hour 123, immediate coastal sections getting brushed with some snow. BL is warm but the other levels are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hour 126 1008mb east of the VA Capes. Decent moisture into the coast again but the surface freezing line is up into NNE and far Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Closes off at H5 east of NJ. Deepening nicely offshore. This was very close to being a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Some areas of the immediate coast receive > 0.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hour 123, immediate coastal sections getting brushed with some snow. BL is warm but the other levels are below freezing. IL, when light precip is falling with temps in the upper 30s, even all other levels are sub freezing, which I also doubt, it does not typically translate to snow at the coast. This is likely light rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z para looks like the 12z Euro from yesterday. Much more improved than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z Op does not have a bad overall look, with usual S/E bias. Verbatim it sucks, but overall if you take it in context...not bad. If other models come in more amped, would chalk it up to 'same old GFS'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not ready to throw in the towel, but the rapid trends towards dampening the western ridge is definitely concerning. That was slowing down the pattern allowing both amplification of our shortwave, the northern stream, and less stress on the Rex Block and 50/50 low. The ridge was blocking the PAC jet from shoving everything east. The ridge was the door keeping it in the other room, and now that the door is broken, the PAC jet runs into our pattern like a bunch of crazy kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2mT starts above 0C and stays there, barely going sub-freezing as the dry, sinking air arrives, Sun. 7-10pm. No snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2mT starts above 0C and stays there, barely going sub-freezing as the dry, sinking air arrives, Sun. 7-10pm. No snow for NYC. So you are saying it can't snow at 33/34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 IL, when light precip is falling with temps in the upper 30s, even all other levels are sub freezing, which I also doubt, it does not typically translate to snow at the coast. This is likely light rain showers. I'm assuming that the GFS is up to it's usual crap with regards to surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 So you are saying it can't snow at 33/34F. That is not what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm assuming that the GFS is up to it's usual crap with regards to surface temps. I generally agree with you, but the H5 setup is what I am looking at and the trends are disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2mT starts above 0C and stays there, barely going sub-freezing as the dry, sinking air arrives, Sun. 7-10pm. No snow for NYC. I will ignore the Euro`s 31 Fri am and 23 Sat am .Thanks for the heads up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The great h5 look from yesterday has pretty much gone away on all for the 12z runs so far today. The euro should be telling, but the trend has not been good today. We have better times ahead after Xmass...so patients might be need for a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 So you are saying it can't snow at 33/34F. I am saying conditions were probably better on Oct. 30-31, 2011 with strong vert. motion and heavy precip. that fell at a rate greater than it could melt, so I actually saw snow on all surfaces accumalate, and I am near the ocean! I did not check the column in either case. Suppose if only last 100m. or so are above 0C you could see snow. What about skin temp, dew point.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I generally agree with you, but the H5 setup is what I am looking at and the trends are disconcerting. Well the Pacific jet is causing havoc. Hopefully the models aren't getting a good handling on it the last 24 hours. We still have a good 5 days to play around so we have time to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif http://www.rif.org/us/about-rif.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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