buckeye Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NAM will have an interesting solution once it comes into it's timeframe. Looks like the trough will go neg tilt early enough to blast Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just saw the 12z runs. Crazy jumping around, I also checked the euro ensembles, you are correct, the mean looks exactly like the 12zukmet you posted. I have seen the euro do this sudden shift southeast with eastern storms in this time range in the past. Still could be right though. I'd say that about 2/3rds of the 12z ensembles close off a 546dm contour over the Ohio Valley by 132 hours. The op closes off a 546dm contour off the Delmarva Peninsula around 144 hours. So a significant portion of the ensembles are more juiced than the op Euro, and judging by the mean SLP plots several of them take a primary low just south of the Ohio River into WV before transferring. That would be good for southern IL, southern/central IN and a good chunk of OH. How exactly the northern stream interacts with the STJ shortwave may determine how sharp the system is and when it takes on a negative tilt. The 12z Euro appeared to have slightly stronger confluence ahead of the STJ shortwave which may be why it took so long to take on a negative tilt. I think that the system passing through now cutting off and active as a psuedo 50/50 low will limit how far north the system around the 20th can get. That doesn't mean places close to the Ohio River can't see a mix or rain, but unless there are significant changes and the "50/50 low" doesn't happen or we see our system take on a negative tilt over the Plains or something (like the 84 hour NAM, lol), I'd think the I-70 corridor would probably be north of any warm air issues. I was hoping that would happen, but now the question becomes is the confluence caused by that too strong? Anyways, we'll see how the models handle the confluence behind this week's system and also shortwaves moving into the Plains late this week that may phase with our system. An unphased slider that completely misses us is definitely on the table, but the continued strong ensemble support has me feeling decently optimistic. FWIW, the 12z GGEM ENS followed their op, and the mean has a quarter inch of QPF up to central IN and central OH, which is a huge jump north from the 0z ENS mean. We'll see what the 0z runs bring. The 18z GFS looks like it'll whiff south although it's not all the way out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NAM will have an interesting solution once it comes into it's timeframe. Looks like the trough will go neg tilt early enough to blast Chicago Yup. DGEX is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 10/51 Euro ENS members have 2"+ at YYZ. One member has 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 10/51 Euro ENS members have 2"+ at YYZ. One member has 6"+. If we get anything appreciable from this storm you know this is going to be our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If we get anything appreciable from this storm you know this is going to be our winter. Agree. Weve been like a snow magnet so far... hopefully the fast start keeps up. BTW, the 12z run of the Euro ENS looks interesting for the christmas threat... also has a favourable pattern past christmas with a SE ridge/rockies trough axis with true arctic air getting involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 someone might need to change the words in the title of this thread from "storm threat" to "mood flakes threat" pretty anemic model runs last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I know a turd when i see a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 0z Euro Ensembles look a lot better for eastern parts of the subforum. 20/51 members have 2"+ for YYZ and ~8 have 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 0z Euro Ensembles look a lot better for eastern parts of the subforum. 20/51 members have 2"+ for YYZ and ~8 have 4"+. Nice to hear. Somewhat better than yesterday's 12z ensembles. Kind of see it on the GFS too. Sort of an inverted sfc trough linking the main energy to the northern stream. Paltry QPF though (at least with the GFS/GEFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nice to hear. Somewhat better than yesterday's 12z ensembles. Kind of see it on the GFS too. Sort of an inverted sfc trough linking the main energy to the northern stream. Paltry QPF though (at least with the GFS/GEFS). After taking a glance at the individual Euro members, there's pretty strong indication that the 12z run comes NW with the CCB. Lots of members have mod-heavy QPF into the CLE-ROC-SYR corridor. We are on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 After taking a glance at the individual Euro members, there's pretty strong indication that the 12z run comes NW with the CCB. Lots of members have mod-heavy QPF into the CLE-ROC-SYR corridor. We are on the fringe. Well, we'll see. Predictive value of ensembles in relation to future OP runs has not impressed me in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 After taking a glance at the individual Euro members, there's pretty strong indication that the 12z run comes NW with the CCB. Lots of members have mod-heavy QPF into the CLE-ROC-SYR corridor. We are on the fringe. everyone said that about the 12z ens yesterday....and the opposite occurred, the 00z op actually came in further southeast and weaker than the 12z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Blind squirrel or not.... Alek nailed this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS looks like 0.10-0.15" for YYZ. Ain't going to get much better than that. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 While this is for the 20th, there are some indications of light snow on the 18th for parts of the subforum. Fizzles as it heads east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm punting more than 2". This wasn't always a "non-starter" but was dependent on a well timed phase which won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 fwiw, wxbell euro maps has most of the eastern half of ohio in 2-3"....more east, less west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS looks like 0.10-0.15" for YYZ. Ain't going to get much better than that. Lock it in. I don't think were going to get anything out of this one. Perhaps the Christmas or New years storm but not this one. At best maybe a few mood flakes to 0.5", and that 0.5" is a maybe too. Without any phasing and a weak northern stream, this storm doesn't look like it will materialize into anything. Sadly, most of our snow has melted away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ensembles...shmembles, don't mean sh*t as the last two runs of the euro have clearly illustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ensembles...shmembles, don't mean sh*t as the last two runs of the euro have clearly illustrated. I'd disagree, but the ensembles won't nail everything either. The op run caught on a run before the ensembles did, the 0z ensembles last night looked like they had many less members with the farther north solution. The 12z ensembles are also trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm punting more than 2". This wasn't always a "non-starter" but was dependent on a well timed phase which won't happen. I had zero expectations for MBY...but thought the OV might do ok with this system depending on timing and degree of phasing. Was expecting a little further north transfer situation...not the Carolina coast transfer as is being depicted now. OV might still do all right when all is said and done....especially in comparison to the rest of the subforum and the rest of the season thus far....just my 2 cents fwiw I'm still not totally sold on the models handling of the unsampled players...especially the northern stream...but time will tell over the next 24 to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This thread is a stretch to talk about meager snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GFS has a DAB-maybe 1.5" in northern MO and west-central IL, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z GFS has a DAB-maybe 1.5" in northern MO and west-central IL, but that's about it. JB says models won't have a handle on it until it's in the plains. I think I've used that same weenieism back when I posted on the TWC forums in the late 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 JB says models won't have a handle on it until it's in the plains. I think I've used that same weenieism back when I posted on the TWC forums in the late 90's. JB learned from the best. Mood flakes for us, maybe a DAB for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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