ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Obviously HPC/WPC likes the euro. Doesn't look like whole lot of cold air. Surface low is not that deep either but the trend is toward a more impactful solution vs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GEFS is a take your pick. No consensus. Maybe 1 or 2 members in there that look like the Euro/GGEM/Xbox. About 1/2 are southern sliders that give us no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 so far only notable difference I'm seeing in ECMWF through 78hrs is the would-be 50/50 low is a bit stronger/further east than 0z EDIT: Welp....actually, spoke too soon. it sticks around WAY longer than the 00z if you move forward to 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is that our low in S TX at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is that our low in S TX at 96? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Day 4 850s http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 50/50 is further west and stronger vs 0z. H5 is a little flatter and the ns shortwave is diving in a little quicker at 96. Would imply a more se solution. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 so far it looks like it will probably be east of last night...anxiously awaiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Agree with Zwyts this run might be a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ABOUT THE HUGE SHIFT IN THE 12Z CMC FROM THE 0Z CMCOne of the really big rules that needs to be followed in the weather business ( especially we are forecasting in the medium range) is the **RULE OF 1 SOLUTION*** .Let's say you have five different weather models and all 5 are showing something different. Model A is you a big snowstorm....Model B gives you small snowstorm...... Model C gives you rain... and Model D gives you no precip at all and MODEL E says sunny. For those who do not know the ways of science this can seem all too confusing. But when you have a situation where the other weather models begin to move towards ONE particular solution -- in this case MODEL A... it is often very significant that the original solution that has been showing up for last several model runs by MODEL A ....is far more likely to end up being correct.In this particular case this is exactly was going on with the midday Canadian here. Typically there are some forecasters and weather hobbyists that will fight this trend and say well it doesn't mean much.. Or they will make the argument that that still does not prove the European solution is going to be correct. However those making such an argument are simply telling me that have no idea what they are doing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 shifted south/weaker a good bit by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This will def go East the 50/50 is hanging on longer and the shortwave is less robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 colder, light precip up to dc by 126... doubtful it's as good (well, overall.. for us it might be good) a storm tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 atv 123 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Day 5 850s http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 if the 50/50 moves out quick, we get the best of both worlds maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 colder, light precip up to dc by 126... doubtful it's as good (well, overall.. for us it might be good) a storm tho not exactly horrible tho. No inland warm track so far. Been said but the key will be the 50/50 placement and strength. We need it but not supression city by being too deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 135 precip shield still not north of DC. 1004 on outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 if the 50/50 moves out quick, we get the best of both worlds maybe It would be our luck that the thing we wished for sticks around too long/tough and ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Heh, one of the bigger shifts you'll see run to run at this lead on the euro. h5 much less amped and it started early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 looks like prob a SE VA jackpot.. fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Congrats Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Storm gets crushed but id rather it trend this way than the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 looks like prob a SE VA jackpot.. fringed? their surface temps are probably near boiling so it's a cold rain for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NO ian se va still rain..CENTRAL and western and sw VA yes ... if this run is correct which i do NOT think it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ~.25 DC south.. sorry mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I can see to 126, and looks really anemic and pathetic at that point, would really have to amp quickly from there to become anything significant, or even close to the type of storm the last 3 runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So did I just lose the 20" the rock-solid EC gave me at 00Z ? Lol at weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Congrats Central VA There we're enough ensemble members showing that from 0z to raise an eyebrow but the majority were big precip producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.