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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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 ABOUT THE   HUGE  SHIFT  IN THE 12Z  CMC   FROM THE 0Z  CMC


One of the really big rules that needs to be followed in the weather business ( especially we are forecasting in the medium range) is the **RULE OF 1 SOLUTION*** .

Let's say you have five different weather models and all 5 are showing something different. Model A is you a big snowstorm....Model B gives you small snowstorm...... Model C gives you rain... and Model D gives you no precip at all and MODEL E says sunny. For those who do not know the ways of science this can seem all too confusing. But when you have a situation where the other weather models begin to move towards ONE particular solution -- in this case MODEL A... it is often very significant that the original solution that has been showing up for last several model runs by MODEL A ....is far more likely to end up being correct.

In this particular case this is exactly was going on with the midday Canadian here. Typically there are some forecasters and weather hobbyists that will fight this trend and say well it doesn't mean much.. Or they will make the argument that that still does not prove the European solution is going to be correct. However those making such an argument are simply telling me that have no idea what they are doing .

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colder, light precip up to dc by 126... doubtful it's as good (well, overall.. for us it might be good) a storm tho 

 

not exactly horrible tho.  No inland warm track so far.  Been said but the key will be the 50/50 placement and strength.  We need it but not supression city by being too deep

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