Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looked liked it slid a little, but I'm on my phone. It was a very different evolution at h5. It's the first hint that it's catching onto a stronger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is decent, but not as good as the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Excellent trend imo and far from meh. Agreed. GGEM and Xbox jumping on a coastal track is big. I don't care a bit how much QPF the Xbox shows, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is decent, but not as good as the EURO From being no storm at all last night, i'll say it is a huge improvement. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is a brand new idea for the pgfs. It's still not a great vort pass. Too close to overhead. But it's a big step up from any previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I guess the para starting to catch on at d5-6 instead of d3-4 is an "improvement"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is a brand new idea for the pgfs. It's still not a great vort pass. Too close to overhead. But it's a big step up from any previous run. It's really strong with that northern stream vort and holds it together as it passes just to our north. Ends up giving a hint of a OH Valley/Apps low that would probably screw up our low-level temps. But details aside, I'm happy with this jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I guess the para starting to catch on at d5-6 instead of d3-4 is an "improvement"? CoastalWx posted that the para's Day 6 verification scores were horrendous. So yes, this is probably an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Para looks better than the GFS, but both look better...we probably have unreasonable expectations anyway...why should a model get ideas right at this lead time, and why is it important to do so...It is a completely different thing when the GFS is out to lunch 48 hours out (2/12/14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM looks great...not euro great, but much closer to getting to the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 UKIE looks good too as far as I can tell using the meteocentre maps (120 and 144) Won't know QPF till Wednesday at earliest fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 CoastalWx posted that the para's Day 6 verification scores were horrendous. So yes, this is probably an improvement. I was actually just mocking the GFS as a whole.. the para still seems to kinda suck so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for SW and West-Central VA..even gives DC 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for SW and West-Central VA..even gives DC 1" 1" snow or qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't envy the NWS. How does one even begin to blend the following guidance: a cloudy sprinkle storm scooting to our south Saturday morning (GFS) and a slowly evolving Gulf of Mexico Miller A liquid explosion moving in Saturday night (ECMWF). Factor the previous forecast, blend, weigh WPC, collaborate, point, click and ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for SW and West-Central VA..even gives DC 1" Raleigh's maps had 3-4" for DCA from what I saw... but not like it really matters right now anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 1" snow or qpf? snow QPF is like 0.4", but it isn't all snow...doesn't matter at this point...it is getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 snow QPF is like 0.4", but it isn't all snow...doesn't matter at this point...it is getting there... Ya it had no low last night so much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Lundberg just agreed with you in his blog. This is the 3rd coastal system this winter season already where the euro has been a rock run after run with the same general solution while the other models flail around aimlessly. Now eventually the euro will be wrong so its dangerous to use past performance to predict future results, as the Eagles proved last night, but it is definitely a trend this year that the euro is locked into these east coast systems in this pattern while the other models are struggling. UKMET has been very similar to the euro also so I should put those two together in fairness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM just joined the party, looks like a MECS but cant be 100% with only the black n white maps Edit: I was wrong but still a very good run considering its nice to get some models on the EURO camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I didnt realize this thread existed, GGEM looks good, nothing spectacular but big step to look like EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GEM has one of the better tracks. The nw precip shield contracts as the lp starts ramping up directly over OBX. QPF bullseye over the northern neck and delmarva. Close to a shellacking here. As Matt said. Fine detail specifics are mostly meaningless. Bigger picture looking better as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Upon further review, the GFSP isn't that bad I suppose. I can see why people jumped on me for saying it was meh, but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GEM has one of the better tracks. The nw precip shield contracts as the lp starts ramping up directly over OBX. QPF bullseye over the northern neck and delmarva. Close to a shellacking here. As Matt said. Fine detail specifics are mostly meaningless. Bigger picture looking better as we move forward. I think a little SE is just fine. We want to be on the NW edge of the heavier precip. These things usually bump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Lundberg just agreed with you in his blog. That is the guy who hates snow and cold right? Is he whining about a potential storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Obviously HPC/WPC likes the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Awaiting new euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 HPC prog looks classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z GEFS is a take your pick. No consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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