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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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This is a brand new idea for the pgfs. It's still not a great vort pass. Too close to overhead. But it's a big step up from any previous run. 

 

 

It's really strong with that northern stream vort and holds it together as it passes just to our north.  Ends up giving a hint of a OH Valley/Apps low that would probably screw up our low-level temps.  But details aside, I'm happy with this jump.  

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CoastalWx posted that the para's Day 6 verification scores were horrendous.  So yes, this is probably an improvement.    

I was actually just mocking the GFS as a whole.. the para still seems to kinda suck so far. 

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I don't envy the NWS. How does one even begin to blend the following guidance: a cloudy sprinkle storm scooting to our south Saturday morning (GFS) and a slowly evolving Gulf of Mexico Miller A liquid explosion moving in Saturday night (ECMWF).

Factor the previous forecast, blend, weigh WPC, collaborate, point, click and ship.

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Lundberg just agreed with you in his blog.

This is the 3rd coastal system this winter season already where the euro has been a rock run after run with the same general solution while the other models flail around aimlessly.  Now eventually the euro will be wrong so its dangerous to use past performance to predict future results, as the Eagles proved last night, but it is definitely a trend this year that the euro is locked into these east coast systems in this pattern while the other models are struggling.  UKMET has been very similar to the euro also so I should put those two together in fairness. 

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The GEM has one of the better tracks. The nw precip shield contracts as the lp starts ramping up directly over OBX. QPF bullseye over the northern neck and delmarva. Close to a shellacking here. As Matt said. Fine detail specifics are mostly meaningless. Bigger picture looking better as we move forward.

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The GEM has one of the better tracks. The nw precip shield contracts as the lp starts ramping up directly over OBX. QPF bullseye over the northern neck and delmarva. Close to a shellacking here. As Matt said. Fine detail specifics are mostly meaningless. Bigger picture looking better as we move forward.

I think a little SE is just fine. We want to be on the NW edge of the heavier precip. These things usually bump NW.

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