yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I have to disagree there. I think the Euro standing on its own is a red flag. Not a prediction, just a concern. I am not really concerned a whole lot... if the EURO had lost the storm last night then I would've been concerned. Also, the ensembles support the OP pretty much; if there was one model that stood on its own, I would have that be the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I have to disagree there. I think the Euro standing on its own is a red flag. Not a prediction, just a concern. the other models, as a group, are just dancing around the Euro solution they'll hone in on it by tomorrow I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I am not really concerned a whole lot... if the EURO had lost the storm last night then I would've been concerned. Also, the ensembles support the OP pretty much; if there was one model that stood on its own, I would have that be the EURO I agree.....would really just like to see another model jump in with both feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 have the ensembles as a group been over amplified as well? I'm not sure about the ensembles, just the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 00z Euro Op may be a bit over-amped, but at this range, the Ensembles are probably still playing catch-up to just how deep the storm is really going to be. 00z Euro Ens mean is notably more amped and further west than the 12z Ens as more members come aboard. I think we'll see the Euro Ens trend more towards the Op than the Op trending towards the Ens over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean track is near perfect for a snowstorm in the cities. Low locations do show a cluster tucked closer in but overall the ens mean is about as good as you can ask for. There are quite a few comma head solutions for the cities and burbs with the members. Mean precip has bumped all the way up to .80+/-. Now both GFS's take the low below us. Things are looking really good. Agreed. I wouldn't be raising flags of a 100% freezing/frozen precip event for the cities, but I think at least a partial freezing/frozen precip event for the cities looks plausible right now. Right now, I'd say we are in a decent spot 5 days out. The worrisome thing is that I think we all get short term memory loss and forget that the Euro almost made me cancel Thanksgiving and bail on my family for 8-14" of snow that never showed up. Of course, climatology was in a whole 'nother world back then. Also the euro did get the storm track and general idea for Qpf correct so.... Yeah, Euro nailed the track and QPF, given appropriate leeway for a 5-7 day prog. Still, 0z last night changed things dramatically for those north of Philly, so I wouldn't say it's totally locked in yet. As for temps, 1 month of climo is helpful. Temps are going to near normal as the storm develops. We're not counting on 10 degrees of dynamical cooling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The good news looking at the Euro is the h7, h85, and h5 lows all pass to the southeast of us, and the low is getting vertically stacked at our latitude in a way like the 2/6/10 storm did. No comparisons being made, just a decent signal and thing to have on your side at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 30 hour storms are often not 30 hours storms. Just look at how long the precipitation was supposed to linger with our last storm.. We did get one wrap around snow squall but gnerally did not get as much as forecast on the back side. However, if the 500h low does reform to our south like the euro is doing then, we probably will see wrap around for quite awhile. What happens still depends a lot on the stupid low and confluence to our northeast. The WPC Christmas party is today or I'd be writing an article. Instead I'll go and see what they are thinking. Anyway, almost all the euro ens members have the miller a look. LIke yooou I'm concerned about the dreaded inland track as it crosses NC and southern VA. in mby it's not a good one. Winterluvr should be excited. exactly..that was my point....The euro always has these 24 hour+ storms that are never close to that long....so I was just noting it with amusement....usually it comes around when we get closer......I am glad it is a weekend...I might need to drive west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Chuck bell says low to mid 40s and rain. See ya all next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Chuck bell says low to mid 40s and rain. See ya all next one. Same with Tom over at channel 4. Toodles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Agreed. I wouldn't be raising flags of a 100% freezing/frozen precip event for the cities, but I think at least a partial freezing/frozen precip event for the cities looks plausible right now. Looking through the members and precip panel there's also a camp of solutions that look similar to the para and 6z gfs that have the bulk slide south of us. If the 50/50 really asserts itself it's viable solution. Pretty mixed between the 3 solutions (tucked sketchy / near perfect / slider). There are some west solutions too but outliers now. Not a lot of support for that it's pretty unanimous that we get precip and 28 members have .75+ for the event through much of the area. Overall a pretty wet signal at this lead. The mslp + low location panels don't really show which is favored even though the mean looks good. Good # of inside the coast tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The good news looking at the Euro is the h7, h85, and h5 lows all pass to the southeast of us, and the low is getting vertically stacked at our latitude in a way like the 2/6/10 storm did. No comparisons being made, just a decent signal and thing to have on your side at this point. 500 pass was better on 0z than 12z. Tho still not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Chuck bell says low to mid 40s and rain. See ya all next one. Bob Ryan school of forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Chuck bell says low to mid 40s and rain. See ya all next one. You wrote the copy for him? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You wrote the copy for him? Lol My current forecast is 0-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Maybe it was Tom Kiernan. Wasn't looking first go. He just said "maybe a little wet snow at elevation". #clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 500 pass was better on 0z than 12z. Tho still not sure I buy it. 0z ens mean was a good bit sharper and deeper than 12z. I looked it up in my Vort101 book and it said to start tuning shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Waiting for the GFSP to get its act together. Latest run was underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bob Ryan school of forecasting I'll never forget when Bob Ryan predicted just a few flurries 48 hours before snowmageadon Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bob Ryan school of forecasting When Bob used to put out his yearly almanac, I remember him saying one year that the big snowstorm is a thing of the past for DC ...as Ji puts it I believe we've had about 5 once in a lifetime storms since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'll never forget when Bob Ryan predicted just a few flurries 48 hours before snowmageadon Sent from my iPhone 31 years later I can still vividly recall him begrudgingly forecasting 4-8 inches of snow out here on the 11 PM (thurs) news the night before Feb '83 storm. He was very uncertain about a storm and said "kids, do your homework tonight." I woke up around 6 AM that next morning (Fri) to 8" on the ground on my way to 32". Not to slam him, because his conservative nature is usually proven prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'll never forget when Bob Ryan predicted just a few flurries 48 hours before snowmageadon Sent from my iPhone Unless you are referring to a different storm other than 2/5-6/10 as Snowmageddon, this is simply a false memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Let it be known that I punted on this storm with my CWG forecast yesterday until editing got ahold of it. I'm holding my front-end overrunning cold rain, perhaps some slop, before this thing gets shoved off to bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Let it be known that I punted on this storm with my CWG forecast yesterday until editing got ahold of it. I'm holding my front-end overrunning cold rain, perhaps some slop, before this thing gets shoved off to bermuda. So now it is every other Model and Scuddz against the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS H5 looking more euroish so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Right now, I'd say we are in a decent spot 5 days out. The worrisome thing is that I think we all get short term memory loss and forget that the Euro almost made me cancel Thanksgiving and bail on my family for 8-14" of snow that never showed up. Of course, climatology was in a whole 'nother world back then. Also the euro did get the storm track and general idea for Qpf correct so.... euro did nail everything except the surface temps with that storm. Euro was about 1-2C too cold from 5 days out and that made all the difference. 2 weeks later and that would probably have been a great storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well at least the Ohio low is gone on the reg GFS, now to flat and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS looks terrible at h5. But then it's supposedly smarter twin has a closed h5 low over AZ at 84 hours. Not sure where it goes from there but the differences @ just 3.5 day leads are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS took a big step towards the EURO as expected, not that it shows a big storm or anything, but the overall progression of the wave looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bob Ryan was the opposite of JB. At least that made him accurate most of the time as opposed to once a year. However, not sure either is prudent as when there really is the threat of a significant event downplaying it is no better then hyping every long shot. Somewhere between those 2 is a good way to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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