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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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I have to disagree there.  I think the Euro standing on its own is a red flag.  Not a prediction, just a concern.

 

I am not really concerned a whole lot... if the EURO had lost the storm last night then I would've been concerned.  Also, the ensembles support the OP pretty much; if there was one model that stood on its own, I would have that be the EURO

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I am not really concerned a whole lot... if the EURO had lost the storm last night then I would've been concerned.  Also, the ensembles support the OP pretty much; if there was one model that stood on its own, I would have that be the EURO

I agree.....would really just like to see another model jump in with both feet.

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The 00z Euro Op may be a bit over-amped, but at this range, the Ensembles are probably still playing catch-up to just how deep the storm is really going to be. 00z Euro Ens mean is notably more amped and further west than the 12z Ens as more members come aboard. I think we'll see the Euro Ens trend more towards the Op than the Op trending towards the Ens over the next couple of days.

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Euro ens mean track is near perfect for a snowstorm in the cities. Low locations do show a cluster tucked closer in but overall the ens mean is about as good as you can ask for. There are quite a few comma head solutions for the cities and burbs with the members. Mean precip has bumped all the way up to .80+/-.

Now both GFS's take the low below us. Things are looking really good.

Agreed.  I wouldn't be raising flags of a 100% freezing/frozen precip event for the cities, but I think at least a partial freezing/frozen precip event for the cities looks plausible right now.   

 

Right now, I'd say we are in a decent spot 5 days out. The worrisome thing is that I think we all get short term memory loss and forget that the Euro almost made me cancel Thanksgiving and bail on my family for 8-14" of snow that never showed up. Of course, climatology was in a whole 'nother world back then. Also the euro did get the storm track and general idea for Qpf correct so....

Yeah, Euro nailed the track and QPF, given appropriate leeway for a 5-7 day prog.  Still, 0z last night changed things dramatically for those north of Philly, so I wouldn't say it's totally locked in yet.  As for temps, 1 month of climo is helpful.  Temps are going to near normal as the storm develops.  We're not counting on 10 degrees of dynamical cooling here.    

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30 hour storms are often not 30 hours storms. Just look at how long the precipitation was supposed to linger with our last storm..  We did get one wrap around snow squall but gnerally did not get as much as forecast on the back side.  However, if the 500h low does reform to our south like the euro is doing then, we probably will see wrap around for quite awhile.  What happens still depends a lot on the stupid low and confluence to our northeast.  The WPC Christmas party is today or I'd be writing an article.  Instead I'll go and see what they are thinking.  Anyway, almost all the euro ens members have the miller a look.  LIke yooou I'm concerned about the dreaded inland track as it crosses NC and southern VA.  in mby it's not a good one.  Winterluvr should be excited.

 

exactly..that was my point....The euro always has these 24 hour+ storms that are never close to that long....so I was just noting it with amusement....usually it comes around when we get closer......I am glad it is a weekend...I might need to drive west.....

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Agreed.  I wouldn't be raising flags of a 100% freezing/frozen precip event for the cities, but I think at least a partial freezing/frozen precip event for the cities looks plausible right now.   

 

 

 

Looking through the members and precip panel there's also a camp of solutions that look similar to the para and 6z gfs that have the bulk slide south of us. If the 50/50 really asserts itself it's viable solution. Pretty mixed between the 3 solutions (tucked sketchy / near perfect / slider). There are some west solutions too but outliers now. Not a lot of support for that 

 

it's pretty unanimous that we get precip and 28 members have .75+ for the event through much of the area. Overall a pretty wet signal at this lead. 

 

The mslp + low location panels don't really show which is favored even though the mean looks good. Good # of inside the coast tracks. 

 

post-2035-0-20986300-1418653330_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-77276900-1418653338_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-93816700-1418653354_thumb.jp

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The good news looking at the Euro is the h7, h85, and h5 lows all pass to the southeast of us, and the low is getting vertically stacked at our latitude in a way like the 2/6/10 storm did. No comparisons being made, just a decent

signal and thing to have on your side at this point.

500 pass was better on 0z than 12z. Tho still not sure I buy it.
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I'll never forget when Bob Ryan predicted just a few flurries 48 hours before snowmageadon

Sent from my iPhone

 

31 years later I can still vividly recall him begrudgingly forecasting 4-8 inches of snow out here on the 11 PM (thurs) news the night before Feb '83 storm.  He was very uncertain about a storm and said "kids, do your homework tonight."  I woke up around 6 AM that next morning (Fri) to 8" on the ground on my way to 32".

 

Not to slam him, because his conservative nature is usually proven prudent.

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Right now, I'd say we are in a decent spot 5 days out. The worrisome thing is that I think we all get short term memory loss and forget that the Euro almost made me cancel Thanksgiving and bail on my family for 8-14" of snow that never showed up. Of course, climatology was in a whole 'nother world back then. Also the euro did get the storm track and general idea for Qpf correct so....

euro did nail everything except the surface temps with that storm.  Euro was about 1-2C too cold from 5 days out and that made all the difference.  2 weeks later and that would probably have been a great storm for the area. 

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Bob Ryan was the opposite of JB.  At least that made him accurate most of the time as opposed to once a year.  However, not sure either is prudent as when there really is the threat of a significant event downplaying it is no better then hyping every long shot.  Somewhere between those 2 is a good way to forecast. 

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