Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 The cutoff on the northern fringe of the precip shield is brutal for those above the PA turnpike. The setup to the north on this run of the Euro is the type of setup where areas just north of Harrisburg get a few inches and down 40 miles to the south get way over a foot. There is a nice area of confluence that keeps the storm from trucking up the coast and forces the low to redevelop underneath the quasi blocking feature. Anyone else see that, or am I way off? yeah...the original "50-50" which is kind of weak sauce moves east and an area of strong confluence replaces it north of Maine and shunts the ULL east....it is almost a perfect solution..a snowstorm is all the more sweeter if 40N gets screwed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is this the 4th or 5th run in a row that the EURO has had looking like this, or at least some semblance of it? Seems like the EURO is locked in and won't budge at all we are deferential in this forum (as we should be) because we have a lot of talented government mets who post here, but nobody should be taking the GFS seriously..hopefully the Para catches on soon....it is closer to getting it right than the GFS, which is a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z monday euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 yeah...the original "50-50" which is kind of weak sauce moves east and an area of strong confluence replaces it north of Maine and shunts the ULL east....it is almost a perfect solution..a snowstorm is all the more sweeter if 40N gets screwed.... My University is literally located at 40.00N, so it's not quite 40N getting the shaft on this one, but man it's rough for those above I76 up here. This was really the perfect setup for a mainly Mid Atlantic special. Now we just need a repeat of this run 10 more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 My University is literally located at 40.00N, so it's not quite 40N getting the shaft on this one, but man it's rough for those above I76 up here. This was really the perfect setup for a mainly Mid Atlantic special. Now we just need a repeat of this run 10 more times Philly always wins...I can't remember a storm where we did well and Philly got screwed...so philly is ok....If I had my druthers nobody north of the M/D line would see a single flake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Let's compare the 0z Euro and 0z GFS for grading purposes later....we'll use WInchester, VA Euro - 20" of snow GFS - 0.15" of light showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Philly always wins...I can't remember a storm where we did well and Philly got screwed...so philly is ok....If I had my druthers nobody north of the M/D line would see a single flake... I'd be heading south for home all the time if that was the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro Ens still solid. Looks like snow mean is now up to 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I know they're wrong, but the snow maps on the Euro improved again this run from the last run trend is our friend.....until it can't get any better and turns the other way :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro Ens still solid. Looks like snow mean is now up to 5-6". colder than operational I presume and a bit further east too? mean that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 fwiw, JMA has the suppressed look of Euro, but with only a fraction of the qpf but we lost the DGEX at 6Z.....rest in peace lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Seems like the gfs and it's baby brother took steps toward the euro, especially the baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Seems like the gfs and it's baby brother took steps toward the euro, especially the baby. ur getting crushed, there's no 2 ways about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ur getting crushed, there's no 2 ways about it Unless he gets fringed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like the gfs might be coming around. The euro insists that there is going to be a storm. I would normally trust it at this range. But I have seen my share of 5 day model fantasy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Unless he gets fringed... certainly, everything is up in the air, but with the pattern since early NOV and the successive runs of the Euro raising confidence of the general track, I'd rather be him than me right now of course, that doesn't mean we get diddly....Accuwx snow maps give us 12" and Ens. for DCA are 5-6", soooo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Unless he gets fringed...That's my line5 days is a lifetime...I'm glad time goes by so fast now at my age...seems difficult to believe this thing won't wobble significantly between now and then...10 more euro runs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like the gfs might be coming around. The euro insists that there is going to be a storm. I would normally trust it at this range. But I have seen my share of 5 day model fantasy snow. excellent point. I was reviewing our "Thanksgiving Eve Coastal" thread and found a nice Euro snow map page 9 from Nov 23rd...mean was 17.7 and I was solidly in the pink...ended up with slushy inch. Realize its different time/situation but marginal cold is marginal cold especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's my line 5 days is a lifetime...I'm glad time goes by so fast now at my age...seems difficult to believe this thing won't wobble significantly between now and then...10 more euro runs?? If the pattern is supposed to be going into the right direction, I can't see how the models will be 100% consistent seeing as these are the parts that start the whole process. Euro might have the general idea but can still vary some more. Could go great, could go meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 personally -- i can't complain about the Euro, heaviest precip is to my west, but I'm at or below freezing the entire time. bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Seems like the gfs and it's baby brother took steps toward the euro, especially the baby.Yeah... I am not that great at interpreting the model output... But generally the gfs this morning looked as if there were several impulses scooting off the coast taking a southernly track. Nothing really gets going though until ots. Given the last cwg pattern write up the southern track would make sense during that time period.... We all know that today and tomorrow we go from fantasy land to having to take these models seriously. So it should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looking at the MSLP locations of the Euro Ensemble members, the OP certainly has support from the EPS but the OP is on the western edge of guidance. A lot of strong lows in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean track is near perfect for a snowstorm in the cities. Low locations do show a cluster tucked closer in but overall the ens mean is about as good as you can ask for. There are quite a few comma head solutions for the cities and burbs with the members. Mean precip has bumped all the way up to .80+/-. Now both GFS's take the low below us. Things are looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean track is near perfect for a snowstorm in the cities. Low locations do show a cluster tucked closer in but overall the ens mean is about as good as you can ask for. There are quite a few comma head solutions for the cities and burbs with the members. Mean precip has bumped all the way up to .80+/-. Now both GFS's take the low below us. Things are looking really good. Right now, I'd say we are in a decent spot 5 days out. The worrisome thing is that I think we all get short term memory loss and forget that the Euro almost made me cancel Thanksgiving and bail on my family for 8-14" of snow that never showed up. Of course, climatology was in a whole 'nother world back then. Also the euro did get the storm track and general idea for Qpf correct so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens mean track is near perfect for a snowstorm in the cities. Low locations do show a cluster tucked closer in but overall the ens mean is about as good as you can ask for. There are quite a few comma head solutions for the cities and burbs with the members. Mean precip has bumped all the way up to .80+/-. Now both GFS's take the low below us. Things are looking really good. I think the low to the OV is off the table. if there's a clustering of GFS members, IMO, it would be for a weaker, more southerly off the coast type of deal. The best solution being the Euro gives me some confidence, but the fact that no other model has a storm that strong in that position definitely makes me wonder if the Euro just might be due to undergo some significant changes. Long way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 30 hour storm...gotta love the euro... 30 hour storms are often not 30 hours storms. Just look at how long the precipitation was supposed to linger with our last storm.. We did get one wrap around snow squall but gnerally did not get as much as forecast on the back side. However, if the 500h low does reform to our south like the euro is doing then, we probably will see wrap around for quite awhile. What happens still depends a lot on the stupid low and confluence to our northeast. The WPC Christmas party is today or I'd be writing an article. Instead I'll go and see what they are thinking. Anyway, almost all the euro ens members have the miller a look. LIke yooou I'm concerned about the dreaded inland track as it crosses NC and southern VA. in mby it's not a good one. Winterluvr should be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm hoping the euro is correct and we receive a substantial Middle Atlantic winter storm. My only concern is that the Euro has tended to over amplify systems over the past few months. Not saying the GFS has been on the mark either but the over amp trends on the euro have been noted and with it being one of the outliers thus far it leaves some reason to be suspect. Hopefully we start to see more guidance trending this way soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm hoping the euro is correct and we receive a substantial Middle Atlantic winter storm. My only concern is that the Euro has tended to over amplify systems over the past few months. Not saying the GFS has been on the mark either but the over amp trends on the euro have been noted and with it being one of the outliers thus far it leaves some reason to be suspect. Hopefully we start to see more guidance trending this way soon. have the ensembles as a group been over amplified as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm hoping the euro is correct and we receive a substantial Middle Atlantic winter storm. My only concern is that the Euro has tended to over amplify systems over the past few months. Not saying the GFS has been on the mark either but the over amp trends on the euro have been noted and with it being one of the outliers thus far it leaves some reason to be suspect. Hopefully we start to see more guidance trending this way soon. How about the ensembles? Are they often over-amplified as well? ETA: Mitch beat me to the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I like where we are right now but this ^. It's going to be really hard for me to buy into any solution really until we are much closer. Obviously climo is completely different in a positive way, but I need consistency +. At least here we dont see massive red flags staring us in the face right now I have to disagree there. I think the Euro standing on its own is a red flag. Not a prediction, just a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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