Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nam will nail saturday's storm on the sunday runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm just waiting for someone to put this thread out of its misery. It's possibly one of the all time greats though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's possibly one of the all time greats though. I have always wanted to go down to Charleston for some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This storm, the one before this, and that other storm, were all great practice. Now we need to take the training wheels off and feel the wind in our hair. I think the storm after the next few storms will be the storm. Although that one may end up being more model-analysis practice for the real one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This storm, the one before this, and that other storm, were all great practice. Now we need to take the training wheels off and feel the wind in our hair. I think the storm after the next few storms will be the storm. Although that one may end up being more model-analysis practice for the real one. We're going to feel the wind in our hair alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You know it's time to call it quits when the NAM bails on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lord Have to say, I learned some hard lessons with this. You ain't lying about that. I get nauseous every time I click here. Can someone change the name of this thread to reflect reality please? any model not showing snow > model(s) showing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the Nam is right we may not see a cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 51hr GFS - 00Z no longer even has a closed surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Pretty bad performance by the Euro and the EPS on this. The EPS were basically in lockstep with the OP, in terms of general strength and general track (benchmark track versus hugging the coast/just inland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i love this **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i love this **** Epic fail! What a bummer this has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Epic fail! What a bummer this has been yeah lol. but 'busts' are cool too. maybe we can dial back the euro hugging a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i love this **** Even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 monday coastal is juicing up. maybe we should change the thread date and pretend we were talking about a rainstorm as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That was the surprising part to me. It's easy to toss (aside from tossing just because its out of range) when an op is on its own, but the ens were on board for the most part. Until it wasn't lol. Yeah, the fact that the Euro OP showed a similar solution 3-4 runs in a row and the EPS were very supportive of the OP, made me feel fairly confident a storm was going to happen (rain vs. snow to be worked out later). The GFS was all over from OH valley track to OTS, but I thought it actually caught on better to a weaker solution than the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 yeah lol. but 'busts' are cool too. maybe we can dial back the euro hugging a smidge. Euro has been pretty brutal as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Like everyone else I learned a hard lesson on this too and put my optimism and weenieism in check...especially after seeing the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i love this **** It's like the Boxing Day storm, only more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The long range consistency of the Euro just hooked me. It looked so pretty I had no choice but to get closer to the light. It drew me in like a moth to a bug zapper. Yes but it is also very worrisome when it is the only model that has that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Filling in for Randy because I was bored and had nothing better to do. Checked out the 21z just to see what it looked like, and I was surprised. SREFS went from this to NOTHING in 12 hours. And I mean virtually nothing in the whole state of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 WAS THE GFS CORRECT THIS TIME? . Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A. but Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50. IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong. But you're still dead, so Model A wins by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 None of the models are right or wrong about the weekend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Correct me where I am wrong 1.At this hour there was to be no appreciable precipitation mass along the gulf states and extending up almost to Tennessee. 2.Such precip mass does currently exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Correct me where I am wrong 1.At this hour there was to be no appreciable precipitation mass along the gulf states and extending up almost to Tennessee. 2.Such precip mass does currently exist. I'll keep my porch light on...just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Been watching it all day with a slight hunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Radar looks to me like the precip is booking east like the models show. The top edge of the precip shield is ragged and getting torn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 this is the only map you need to prove we get nada http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I just remembered-- last season, one of those wxbell-type snowfall maps got spread throughout social media for an epic blizzard-of-all-blizzards more than a week out. Of course, the blizzard never came close to happening. Wasn't that map from one run of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I just remembered-- last season, one of those wxbell-type snowfall maps got spread throughout social media for an epic blizzard-of-all-blizzards more than a week out. Of course, the blizzard never came close to happening. Wasn't that map from one run of the Euro? I believe it was a 10 day Euro control run for some crazy 20-30"+ total with a NJ bullseye for Feb 7/8 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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