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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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This storm, the one before this, and that other storm, were all great practice. Now we need to take the training wheels off and feel the wind in our hair. I think the storm after the next few storms will be the storm.

 

Although that one may end up being more model-analysis practice for the real one.

We're going to feel the wind in our hair alright.

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That was the surprising part to me. It's easy to toss (aside from tossing just because its out of range) when an op is on its own, but the ens were on board for the most part. Until it wasn't lol.

 

Yeah, the fact that the Euro OP showed a similar solution 3-4 runs in a row and the EPS were very supportive of the OP, made me feel fairly confident a storm was going to happen (rain vs. snow to be worked out later).  The GFS was all over from OH valley track to OTS, but I thought it actually caught on better to a weaker solution than the Euro did.

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WAS THE GFS CORRECT THIS TIME?

. Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A.

but Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50.

IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong.

But you're still dead, so Model A wins by default.

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I just remembered-- last season, one of those wxbell-type snowfall maps got spread throughout social media for an epic blizzard-of-all-blizzards more than a week out.  Of course, the blizzard never came close to happening. Wasn't that map from one run of the Euro?

 

I believe it was a 10 day Euro control run for some crazy 20-30"+ total with a NJ bullseye for Feb 7/8 or so :axe:

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