Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just got back, gotta love Dr. Yes. closed H7 FTW. It is an outlier but it has been insisting on similar solutions for 3 days now and isn't backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 When was the last time a single model scored an all out coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 When was the last time a single model scored an all out coop? February 13th Euro was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 February 13th Euro was close. You would think I would be able to remember one that close....getting old I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 When was the last time a single model scored an all out coop? 6+ day leads are still outside ops useful ranges. But the euro has a knack at hitting certain storms and not letting go at that lead. We've had 3 runs in a row with very similar solutions and it tossed a bone last week that this "could" happen. Each run that goes by now with a similar solution adds confidence that it's getting it right. And if it is, you'll see other models in catchup mode this week. Doesn't hurt that ensemble support is growing consensus that the op has it right. 12z ens run in particular. Still doesn't mean we're locked of course. Hopefully we'll be having the same type of storm disco Wednesday mornin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There is one bottom line to me...If we can get the 50/50 to be stronger and hang in longer, we'll have a snowstorm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hopefully the UKIE will be in with or close to what the EURO has shown the past 3 runs... tonight's 144 map should be intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There is one bottom line to me...If we can get the 50/50 to be stronger and hang in longer, we'll have a snowstorm on our hands. This is where I am.. Small margin for error. I'd target 81 in VA north of Staunton through Central PA as highest risk, but certainly many areas can get some type of an event. Miller A's are not known for sleet/mix but this could be the exception with some mid levels being issues for a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend. Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run. i prefer having a thread like this. easier to focus on one topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 50/50 now in the "modeling" range of the NAM <ducks for life> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model SREFs too for that matter <double duck> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141214+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hopefully the UKIE will be in with or close to what the EURO has shown the past 3 runs... tonight's 144 map should be intriguingI think the UKIE has been pretty good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 50/50 now in the "modeling" range of the NAM <ducks for life> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model SREFs too for that matter <double duck> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141214+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Noted that too-- it's weeniesh, but when the NAM supports the EURO good things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think the UKIE has been pretty good this year. 12z UKIE at 144 had a 1011 L on the C MS/C AL border, which I believe is a good location for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This run of the GFS should be much better compared to the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah, that GFS....lol. Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The op is insistant at an ohv track. It's either a coup or colossal bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 After looking at the 18z ens solutions I expected a notable shift south. Something isn't adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 To my inexperienced eyes, the Parallel GFS looks ok-ish through hr 132 1013 low LA/AR border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meh ignore the GFS for another 3 days IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meh ignore the GFS for another 3 days IMO... Agree but it's annoying. The solution is in the envelope so you can't really toss just because. The pgfs is further south but confidence in American guidance is tuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Reg GFS, up into OH valley. Para squashed nothingness. Love this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM looks like the PGDFS... sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z UKIE at 144: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM looks like the PGDFS... sigh Tries to start something in the gulf around 120 then gets flattened. Improvements from past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro has been trending NW with the closed 500mb low and not digging it as far southeast even though it still has the storm, possibly means the euro could get on the bandwagon with the rest of models at some time soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z China model doesn't even have a storm at all. Maybe they aren't the new hotness. WPC has the low on the benchmark at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro has been trending NW with the closed 500mb low and not digging it as far southeast even though it still has the storm, possibly means the euro could get on the bandwagon with the rest of models at some time soon? This last run of the Euro was not really what I'd personally want to see at this range to think I'm going to get a snowstorm with the 500 pass. Something like that sure seems to want to usually lift north as we close and there's no room left for that already. But if the downstream blocking is real I guess it can't go too much north. I dunno.. I wouldn't buy the Euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z EURO looks good to me through 108 hours...50/50 looks a bit more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 1002mb SLP in LA... ~1030 H in Northern Plains at 120 for 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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