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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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When was the last time a single model scored an all out coop?

6+ day leads are still outside ops useful ranges. But the euro has a knack at hitting certain storms and not letting go at that lead. We've had 3 runs in a row with very similar solutions and it tossed a bone last week that this "could" happen. Each run that goes by now with a similar solution adds confidence that it's getting it right. And if it is, you'll see other models in catchup mode this week.

Doesn't hurt that ensemble support is growing consensus that the op has it right. 12z ens run in particular. Still doesn't mean we're locked of course. Hopefully we'll be having the same type of storm disco Wednesday mornin.

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There is one bottom line to me...If we can get the 50/50 to be stronger and hang in longer, we'll have a snowstorm on our hands. 

 

 

This is where I am.. Small margin for error. I'd target 81 in VA north of Staunton through Central PA as highest risk, but certainly many areas can get some type of an event.  Miller A's are not known for sleet/mix but this could be the exception with some mid levels being issues for a larger area. 

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The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend.  Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run.

 

i prefer having a thread like this.  easier to focus on one topic.

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Euro has been trending NW with the closed 500mb low and not digging it as far southeast even though it still has the storm, possibly means the euro could get on the bandwagon with the rest of models at some time soon?

This last run of the Euro was not really what I'd personally want to see at this range to think I'm going to get a snowstorm with the 500 pass. Something like that sure seems to want to usually lift north as we close and there's no room left for that already. But if the downstream blocking is real I guess it can't go too much north. I dunno.. I wouldn't buy the Euro yet.

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