WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Updated ranking: 84 hour NAM > Scuddz > Euro > UKMET > Guy on the street > GFS LOL, I think this week I'd have put the Euro two spaces below everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sunny this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sunny this weekend? Yeah, this storm has really fizzled on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sunny this weekend? I hope it is. Any precip event at this point looks extremely lame, so why not sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sunny this weekend? And 50s....December might be +4 at DCA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been watching the wrong storm the whole time. The follow up warm rainy coastal on monday is the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been watching the wrong storm the whole time. The follow up warm rainy coastal on monday is the one to watch. Plus with it warm and rainy, definitely the one that will verify....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 yah I have been holding onto the idea of snow accumulating for the shenandoah valley central/ eastern WVA western NC mtns for a a While. early indications of the nam don't look half bad- 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We've been watching the wrong storm the whole time. The follow up warm rainy coastal on monday is the one to watch. Cold windy snow showers on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The 00z Euro Op may be a bit over-amped, but at this range, the Ensembles are probably still playing catch-up to just how deep the storm is really going to be. 00z Euro Ens mean is notably more amped and further west than the 12z Ens as more members come aboard. I think we'll see the Euro Ens trend more towards the Op than the Op trending towards the Ens over the next couple of days. I'm an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well. The GFS solution is different then it was earlier in the week. But it kept the idea of a weak, disgusting disaster of a storm through all of it's runs. The Euro, as usual, was over amped. Obviously the storm hasnt happened yet. So we wont have a decision on which one performed better for a couple of days. But it looks like its going to be another winter of useless long range model guidance. We were really spoiled in 09/10 when a model (usually the Euro) would grab onto something and it would stick for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm an idiot. You are always good but this was a bit of a miss. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Cold windy snow showers on Christmas? Starting to look like a decent wind event for a lot of people. Snow showers don't work well with strong westerly flow and we tend to minimize cold on westerly flow too. Long ways off either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Starting to look like a decent wind event for a lot of people. Snow showers don't work well with strong westerly flow and we tend to minimize cold on westerly flow too. Long ways off either way. I agree that we don't do well with any flow over the mts or snow on the backside, but that looks like a NW flow setup to me. And strong. I could see us getting flurries/showers out of that. I hate the notion of getting a big wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm an idiot. You're going to have to work on your spin and backpedaling techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 UKIE looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 UKIE looks fine to me Fine for what? High clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Fine for what? High clouds? Precipitation. 1016 L east of HSE moving off at 96... and there is a lot of precip on the 72 hr map when the low is back down by Mobile Bay moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Precipitation. 1016 L east of HSE moving off at 96... and there is a lot of precip on the 72 hr map when the low is back down by Mobile Bay moving NE Is 1016 even a low? It's like 200 miles off of obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Is 1016 even a low? It's like 200 miles off of obx. i guess.... i am just holding out hope for flurries right now to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 You're going to have to work on your spin and backpedaling techniques. Here's a useful starter guide, you know, in case you ever need it. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/humor/forecastalibi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is usually the start of the trend for models to start getting gradually wetter and colder. Let's see if this is the start. You guys seem to have been nailing most systems this fall, so let's hope a new trend for this one begins in our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like about 9 snowflakes on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like about 9 snowflakes on the Euro. Hopefully its ensembles will agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hopefully its ensembles will agree. 18z NAM should deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like about 9 snowflakes on the Euro. Anything from the rest of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like about 9 snowflakes on the Euro. That's a little generous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Anything from the rest of the run? trying to give us some coastal love on monday.. of the wet variety. of course it's another medium pressure system so we'll see but we are a rain town so it'll probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Anything from the rest of the run? LOL, yeah, lets look down the road a bit further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Guess it's time to turn to our next disappointment...Christmas time rain. Is there nothing better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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