Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 A come back in some fashion is totally reasonable at this lead still. I could see a .3 - .5 qpf event still being on the table. It's a miller A and we've had no qpf problems lately for the most part. If things look bleak at 72 hours then things are bleak. It's not really a short lead reverse bust kind of setup.Scuddz > Euro(except with daily digit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol, the good old days are back on the models total qpf thru 111 hrs GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=111ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_111_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141217+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol, the good old days are back on the models total qpf thru 111 hrs GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=111ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_111_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141217+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model A very similar result for the para, it seems that we have model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 00z GFS is anemic for us. I'm almost ready to punt for the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 wow, the system after the one this weekend looks like more of a severe weather threat than a snow threat, especially on the para GFS. Who's up for a Christmas Eve chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 wow, the system after the one this weekend looks like more of a severe weather threat than a snow threat, especially on the para GFS. Who's up for a Christmas Eve chase? I'll be on Long Island we can dress up in Santa suits and chase QLCS meso vortices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 When the historians look back at this thread for all of our collective biographies to see where we were and what we were thinking during the seminal storm event of the 21st century, they'll have plenty or rich material and (etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Who is going to start the Christmas 970 Bomb thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Who is going to start the Christmas 970 Bomb thread#SantaBomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Damn. Models got nothing. Maybe a trace of snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It is exactly where we want it at this range... I would be concerned if the models WERE showing a storm. Haven't we seen this 100 times before... Lose it in then mid range only to get it back. I don't see how anyone was expecting a blizzard... I have would be ok with .5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'll be on Long Island we can dress up in Santa suits and chase QLCS meso vortices. Okay I have been out of the game here for a bit... I think I am gonna change my screen name to ionlypostwhenitsnows...anyway Did they really just put out a second GPS? Like to increase their odds of being correct? Cause I have to admit.. Having two gps's is a dream come true.. You don't even have to pick diff model find the one you like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Okay I have been out of the game here for a bit... I think I am gonna change my screen name to ionlypostwhenitsnows...anyway Did they really just put out a second GPS? Like to increase their odds of being correct? Cause I have to admit.. Having two gps's is a dream come true.. You don't even have to pick diff model find the one you like... Yeah, with two GPS's you can use one to find the nearest liquor store while the other one helps map your way home in case you're too drunk to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Who is going to start the Christmas 970 Bomb thread I'd be happy with flurries and cold wind on X-mas eve..which could be on the table if the 6z GFS is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 early indications of the nam don't look half bad- 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 early indications of the nam don't look half bad- 12z don't do it man, don't do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 don't do it man, don't do it... you might bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 you might bust extrapolated namd.JPG Yup, when the 84 hr NAM has the freezing line N of Baltimore, it's definitely gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Sigh. If only the real 12z models could look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 don't do it man, don't do it... This is usually the start of the trend for models to start getting gradually wetter and colder. Let's see if this is the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yup, when the 84 hr NAM has the freezing line N of Baltimore, it's definitely gonna snowUpdated ranking:84 hour NAM > Scuddz > Euro > UKMET > Guy on the street > GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Updated ranking: 84 hour NAM > Scuddz > Euro > UKMET > Guy on the street > GFS Where does the GPS rank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Updated ranking: 84 hour NAM > Scuddz > Euro > UKMET > Guy on the street > GFS GPS Fixed that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This storm has been torcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This storm has been torcher I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Where does the GPS rank? Even with the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 don't do it man, don't do it... http://vimeo.com/48904663 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Updated ranking: 84 hour NAM > Scuddz > Euro > UKMET > Guy on the street > GFS Woooo #2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This storm has been torchernot this run, but 18z is certain to be too warm for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This storm has been torcher Torcher, or touché? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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