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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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i agree   Especially since  much  of this event is saturday NIGHT 

you seem awful generous on your descriptions overall. the biggest panel drops like .1" in 6 hours.. every model has big time rate issues.  

 

sure something could happen but the models are pretty lock step in a crappy low and not a lot of cold air.  

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wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res.  

 

storm/track not much different. 

Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista.  I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly.  The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. 

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Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista.  I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly.  The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. 

yeah i made a mistake and looked at total qpf forgetting there was some from today.. my numbers were too high. 

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Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista.  I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly.  The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. 

 

yes

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with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities

and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts

Exactly, far from over though a full whiff is also not off the table, imo.

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what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro is a broadening of the precip shield over the last couple runs

sure the slp are pretty weak, but the models are squeezing out more....so why?

well, I think it's the NINO and pineapple express, JR. at work which the models are only now catching up with

I think the wound up solution the Euro had isn't coming back, but I do think we have a reasonable shot of getting a light to moderate event

as an example, the Euro on last night's run (a 15-18 hour forecast) had today's qpf for DCA, IAD, and BWI respectively: .09, .07, and .08

what fell? again respectively at each airport: .37, .41, and .26 as of 1PM (more fell after 1PM at BWI so I expect that .26 to go a bit higher

point is, we have had very few precip busts this year and OCT and NOV were AN precip and BWI with DEC well on its way for the same, so I think we see the models increase the intensity of their broadening field of qpf as we get closer if the seasonal trend holds with this event, and I don't see why it won't, though it has to fail eventually

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what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro is a broadening of the precip shield over the last couple runs

sure the slp are pretty weak, but the models are squeezing out more....so why?

well, I think it's the NINO and pineapple express, JR. at work which the models are only now catching up with

I think the wound up solution the Euro had isn't coming back, but I do think we have a reasonable shot of getting a light to moderate event

as an example, the Euro on last night's run (a 15-18 hour forecast) had today's qpf for DCA, IAD, and BWI respectively: .09, .07, and .08

what fell? again respectively at each airport: .37, .41, and .26 as of 1PM (more fell after 1PM at BWI so I expect that .26 to go a bit higher

point is, we have had very few precip busts this year and OCT and NOV were AN precip and BWI with DEC well on its way for the same, so I think we see the models increase the intensity of their broadening field of qpf as we get closer if the seasonal trend holds with this event, and I don't see why it won't, though it has to fail eventually

we have done well with precip time and time again lately. def worth considering.. tho not sure the low levels will cooperate for us. congrats mapgirl? 

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we have done well with precip time and time again lately. def worth considering.. tho not sure the low levels will cooperate for us. congrats mapgirl

I'm not so sure we even need to mention mapgirl anymore.....at some point we stopped with the "congrats jonjon" and I think she's just about reached that status      lol

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Euro ensembles unimpressive. More support for weak/sheared/south solution. Meteogram isn't out yet but mean precip of around .30-.35 or so. Continues to decline run over run. 

yeah a little bit drier than last run but still looks better than op.. except it starts early and the sfc is a torch during the day sat. 

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You would think that it wouldn't take much to turn this into something bigger.

 

Am I reading this correctly.......the Canadian ens is wetter than the GFS ens even though the Canadian had almost nothing for a storm?

it's wetter but it's also wet.. like no snow for anyone in this forum pretty much 

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The gfs had an Ohio valley track for days. If this ends up squashed it's a fail for both.

considering the Euro spit out about a quarter of the qpf that fell today at DCA/BWI/IAD in last night's 0Z run and a hair more than a third of what it showed on the 12Z run this morning (we're talking the 6 hour period after the run time....before it was even published no less!), we shouldn't be surprised about flip flops by the models 5-7 days out.....but we can be depressed, that's acceptable :weenie:

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