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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res.  

 

storm/track not much different. 

 

yes...looks like 2-4/3-5"? for Harrisonburg up through Winchester...more in the 1-2" range for JYO-MRB...and probably dropping to the T-1" range as you head east from there into the I-95 DCA-BWI corridor...

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wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res.  

 

storm/track not much different. 

 

If we can somehow manage 1"+ around I95 and 2-4 25 miles west....I think most people around DC and western suburbs will be happy and ready for the (hopefully) better pattern that is to come 

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yes...looks like 2-4/3-5"? for Harrisonburg up through Winchester...more in the 1-2" range for JYO-MRB...and probably dropping to the T-1" range as you head east from there into the I-95 DCA-BWI corridor...

yeah prob about right. i wasn't including spots further west in my 1-3". winchester is like another planet. the .5" contour isn't that far south either but the low looks pretty meh still.. need some changes there if we want hope around here. 

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 12z    euro  is  WETTER  ..    good  SNOW  for central   sw   and  western  va     WESTERN  md   eatsern  wva...

 

moderate precipo reaches   md / pa BORDER 

 GFS !!!   GFS !!!  

 

 

Cool, you already know what is going to happen/verify.  I'll alert the operational centers that they can stop running the models.

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Some drizzle to moderate rain in the cities for a few hours on the Euro.

 

according to the model it is about 10-12 hours of precip for the cities, but much of that light...I'd imagine we'd see some flakes with this solution, but T-1" range...not sure the cities go below 33-35, so it would have to be more moderate to stick

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with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities

and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts

 

h5 was a hair better than last night but both runs show things flattening out as the low approaches (and not really getting amped up in the first place). The changes wouldn't need to be major but not minor either. 

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i agree   Especially since  much  of this event is saturday NIGHT 

 

 

with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities

and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts

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I'm surprised it doesn't look exactly like the GFS since they probably stole the code for the CMA and called it their own.

It's funny you say that....I am almost positive that their GRAPES system, which includes a global spectral model, was derived from the NCEP GFS.  I think they have done their own developments since then, but at one time (years ago) it was exactly the same as the NCEP model.  I am also pretty sure that they use the NCEP data assimilation code....

 

All of the NCEP stuff is free and readily available, so it really isn't stolen.

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