Yeoman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 09-10 was about as good as it's ever been for long range storm prediction, especially with the Feb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12x cmc ENS 108 sure it warm but the cmc is alway warm esp at this rnage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro has some flurries/-Sn for the western burbs, Thursday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 china model has a good low.. looks warm tho I'm surprised it doesn't look exactly like the GFS since they probably stole the code for the CMA and called it their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z Sat looks similar to 0z.. perhaps a bit weaker/faster but not much diff in precip.. light stuff near VA/NC border. light precip shield a smidge north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro has some flurries/-Sn for the western burbs, Thursday night... That's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 All regional debates are moved into the banter thread. Take it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 some of the 12Z CMC ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 hr 108/0z Sun: low sucks but precip shield is north.. stuff up into PA. temps are above freezing east of BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 All regional debates are moved into the banter thread. Take it there.It was posted here...I responded here...all is well. Now back to the storm..... Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z euro is WETTER .. good SNOW for central sw and western va WESTERN md eatsern wva... moderate precipo reaches md / pa BORDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res. storm/track not much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NOT A bomb not 2 feet but NOT a MISS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NOT A bomb 10mb in 24 hours to 1016 south of the benchmark.. so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 prob like 1-3" in the hills.. sadness for me (the usual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NOT A bomb not 2 feet but NOT a MISS . how close to phasing and boming out was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res. storm/track not much different. yes...looks like 2-4/3-5"? for Harrisonburg up through Winchester...more in the 1-2" range for JYO-MRB...and probably dropping to the T-1" range as you head east from there into the I-95 DCA-BWI corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res. storm/track not much different. If we can somehow manage 1"+ around I95 and 2-4 25 miles west....I think most people around DC and western suburbs will be happy and ready for the (hopefully) better pattern that is to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Some drizzle to moderate rain in the cities for a few hours on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 yes...looks like 2-4/3-5"? for Harrisonburg up through Winchester...more in the 1-2" range for JYO-MRB...and probably dropping to the T-1" range as you head east from there into the I-95 DCA-BWI corridor... yeah prob about right. i wasn't including spots further west in my 1-3". winchester is like another planet. the .5" contour isn't that far south either but the low looks pretty meh still.. need some changes there if we want hope around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z euro is WETTER .. good SNOW for central sw and western va WESTERN md eatsern wva... moderate precipo reaches md / pa BORDER GFS !!! GFS !!! Cool, you already know what is going to happen/verify. I'll alert the operational centers that they can stop running the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Some drizzle to moderate rain in the cities for a few hours on the Euro. according to the model it is about 10-12 hours of precip for the cities, but much of that light...I'd imagine we'd see some flakes with this solution, but T-1" range...not sure the cities go below 33-35, so it would have to be more moderate to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts h5 was a hair better than last night but both runs show things flattening out as the low approaches (and not really getting amped up in the first place). The changes wouldn't need to be major but not minor either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 prob like 1-3" in the hills.. sadness for me (the usual) looks like possible near-flizzard conditions in the District. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i agree Especially since much of this event is saturday NIGHT with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Some drizzle to moderate rain in the cities for a few hours on the Euro. I can't tell if you're trolling lol, but verbatim no rain west of the Bay. Sfc is less than 35F, and 850s are below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 looks like possible near-flizzard conditions in the District. I think white rain, snow during the more moderate stuff..cartops, grills, 0.4" for 200' up...feels like that as of now....DCA: 0.2", IAD: 1.1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Cool, you already know what is going to happen/verify. I'll alert the operational centers that they can stop running the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm surprised it doesn't look exactly like the GFS since they probably stole the code for the CMA and called it their own. It's funny you say that....I am almost positive that their GRAPES system, which includes a global spectral model, was derived from the NCEP GFS. I think they have done their own developments since then, but at one time (years ago) it was exactly the same as the NCEP model. I am also pretty sure that they use the NCEP data assimilation code.... All of the NCEP stuff is free and readily available, so it really isn't stolen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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