nflwxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para not bad...maybe 1" for DC and 2-4" for western/far western burbs...would be a nice little event...unfortunately we created such high expectations Yep. Ian was 100% correct about the day 6-day 7 snowmaps off the Euro. They set really bad expectations. Almost every Miller A storm has a run or two that shows like 12" or more on the wxbell snowmaps these days. 1-3" seems like a reasonable goal for everyone east of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GFS parallel has been running a lil warm per high risk could be. i dunno. just saying this run wasn't all that amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The GFS parallel has been running a lil warm per high risk What is a lil warm? Even if it was 1-2 degrees cooler which is a stretch, most people in this forum will have rain in their back yards as well as many up and down the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM is south/weak. I dont really see this coming back to a huge low like the Euro was showing. Would be a colossal bust if it did. The Euro and Ukmet were the only ones showing a decent track storm, none of the other models showed that solution. Doesn't matter if the Euro Ensembles are wound up. Want to see positive trends before 0z to believe we still have a chance of a SECS. Otherwise it's likely a southern slider with a Chance of mood flakes for the cities and 2" for Parkton. Either way the pattern will get better, only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 could be. i dunno. just saying this run wasn't all that amazing. I don't think anyone feels amazing about this right now but we're not talking about massive changes to make it an ok event. Seems very unlikely to go back to the wrapped up monster solutions but the track is good and the storm is there on most guidance. If we are having this same conversation tomorrow night/ thurs morn then we're probably toast near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What is a lil warm? Even if it was 1-2 degrees cooler which is a stretch, most people in this forum will have rain in their back yards as well as many up and down the east coast. pretty sure it's all snow (plenty of white rain) west of 95 but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yep. Ian was 100% correct about the day 6-day 7 snowmaps off the Euro. They set really bad expectations. Almost every Miller A storm has a run or two that shows like 12" or more on the wxbell snowmaps these days. 1-3" seems like a reasonable goal for everyone east of the BR. someone should start day7eurosnowmaps.tumblr.com i think it just is known as the best model ever and some forget it shows a bunch of crap in the mid-to-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Again, I will ask you to explain to me what was wrong with my question? You are proving his point with your constant back and forth, read and post less...The truth lies in the middle...The EURO was overamplified 24-36 hours ago, a known bias. The GFS and Canadian have been too strung out and not amplified enough, another known bias. Truth is in the middle, but in my opinion its still not a good result for the majority of us other than the lucky I81 folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 someone should start day7eurosnowmaps.tumblr.com i think it just is known as the best model ever and some forget it shows a bunch of crap in the mid-to-long range. and that it is not always right with every storm even at the end... etc... Thanksgiving storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't think anyone feels amazing about this right now but we're not talking about massive changes to make it an ok event. Seems very unlikely to go back to the wrapped up monster solutions but the track is good and the storm is there on most guidance. If we are having this same conversation tomorrow night/ thurs morn then we're probably toast near the cities. I don't think the chances of having the same scenarios tomorrow at this time are all that high considering what we have seen since yesterday. Bottom line is there's still plenty of outliers to consider before gaining more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing, we just don't want 'as many' comments from other regions is all Trying to grasp what you are saying. So, I am not "allowed" to ask more than an acceptable amount of legitimate questions if they are relevant to my area and yours? The fact is that many members in the mountains of Virginia have an extremely different climate than those in Virginia Beach. While I understand you don't want people "trolling" and neither would I, I don't understand why someone wouldn't be able to ask reasonable questions and add, productively to the conversation. At the end of the day, I'm here for the same reason you are... for the love of weather. IS there a problem with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You are proving his point with your constant back and forth, read and post less...The truth lies in the middle...The EURO was overamplified 24-36 hours ago, a known bias. The GFS and Canadian have been too strung out and not amplified enough, another known bias. Truth is in the middle, but in my opinion its still not a good result for the majority of us other than the lucky I81 folks. What is a good result? An inch or two of snow would be fantastic given the December snow drought of late. This will not be a driving rain storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM is south/weak. This is the third run in a row in which the GGEM has us getting fringed by a weak low passing to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What is a good result? An inch or two of snow would be fantastic given the December snow drought of late. This will not be a driving rain storm.. I suppose thats a matter of opinion but Ill concede..That said, specifically for areas around I95 I think theres a real chance that we're stuck with a little sloppy mix of rain and snow with temps around 35F and generally no accumulation and thats not all that fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I suppose thats a matter of opinion but Ill concede..That said, specifically for areas around I95 I think theres a real chance that we're stuck with a little sloppy mix of rain and snow with temps around 35F and generally no accumulation and thats not all that fun. That seems possible for immediate 95 at this point, but there is also a decent amount of upside if the Euro is correct. Hopefully these runs are "rock bottom." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 how are totally mis reading what I said ? REALLY? in no way did I endorse or l LIKE THE 13km GFS all i said was THIS model was finally producing actual precip weren't you attacking the 13km gfs 10 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yep. Ian was 100% correct about the day 6-day 7 snowmaps off the Euro. They set really bad expectations. Almost every Miller A storm has a run or two that shows like 12" or more on the wxbell snowmaps these days. 1-3" seems like a reasonable goal for everyone east of the BR. It also shows 30 hours storms which is why it can put out that much. I admit it, the weenie inside bit off on it.. that is something I need to learn from and not bite on again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 That seems possible for immediate 95 at this point, but there is also a decent amount of upside at this point if the Euro is correct. Hopefully these runs are "rock bottom." "we" is really hard when posters live in such a broad area, and everyone has different personal expectations.....I never thought DC was really in this one, but I want to see a storm even if it doesn't hit me flush....Others live in different places and have different expectations...Euro locking in 3 runs in a row definitely didn't help things in terms of where many people set the bar...even though we know better...and know that 6-7 days is SO far out when it comes to model skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 how are totally mis reading what I said ? REALLY? in no way did I endorse or l LIKE THE 13km GFS all i said was THIS model was finally producing actual precip just a question. the para wasn't bad (or at least it had something) at 12z yesterday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 "we" is really hard when posters live in such a broad area, and everyone has different personal expectations.....I never thought DC was really in this one, but I want to see a storm even if it doesn't hit me flush....Others live in different places and have different expectations...Euro locking in 3 runs in a row definitely didn't help things in terms of where many people set the bar...even though we know better...and know that 6-7 days is SO far out when it comes to model skill it's a nice reminder to some that it would be cool if a few of the other models would jump on board at some point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 it's a nice reminder to some that it would be cool if a few of the other models would jump on board at some point.... I try to remember not to control other people's expectations...and not to use "we" or "us" when interpreting what a model says...some people are happy with snow tv regardless of what models said leading up...others have varying inches expectations..It is better if we all just said what models are showing and let people decide for themselves whether it is good or bad....of course we are all guilty, myself included, of getting invested one way or another...I do my best to say "DC" instead of "we", but I don't always succeed...unles we have a 6"+ region wide all snow event, not everyone will have the same level of happiness...It doesn't help how many PA people are now posting here and using "we" and "us" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yep. Ian was 100% correct about the day 6-day 7 snowmaps off the Euro. They set really bad expectations. Almost every Miller A storm has a run or two that shows like 12" or more on the wxbell snowmaps these days. 1-3" seems like a reasonable goal for everyone east of the BR. Yeah. As long as you learn how to read them, they're still kinda interesting to eyeball. If you've got a marginal airmass, generally, you can take the south east fringe of the snow on those maps and move it 50-60 miles to the NW, and replace that area with rain for Miller A's. For Miller Bs or storms with more of a warm nose, I guess you have to kind of account for the ice potential since ECMWF apparently treats all "frozen precip" as snow in its maps. So I guess the problem is that they compound two errors with storms where there's any ice involved......first botching the frozen precip calculation and then improperly passing off sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 china model has a good low.. looks warm tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I try to remember not to control other people's expectations...and not to use "we" or "us" when interpreting what a model says...some people are happy with snow tv regardless of what models said leading up...others have varying inches expectations..It is better if we all just said what models are showing and let people decide for themselves whether it is good or bad....of course we are all guilty, myself included, of getting invested one way or another...I do my best to say "DC" instead of "we", but I don't always succeed...unles we have a 6"+ region wide all snow event, not everyone will have the same level of happiness...It doesn't help how many PA people are now posting here and using "we" and "us" Agreed. I also know that my personal baseline of "excitement" for snow in the area - even if it doesn't hit me flush the first time it shows up on the models - is that it show up on more than one model. Even the Euro, as good as it is, and its ensembles, if it hangs out alone too long, that's a flag. Feb of last year, the Euro led the way, but it wasn't by itself. GGEM came on board too. It was jus the GFS which held out so long. In any event, still hoping for something to cover the ground overnight Saturday for my backyard, even if minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NAVGEM hot off the presses (this is the best panel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NAVGEM hot off the presses (this is the best panel) Leesburg .08 jackpot lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NAVGEM hot off the presses (this is the best panel) Beyond zero hours that model doesn't really perform well with coastals/cold air/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Agreed. I also know that my personal baseline of "excitement" for snow in the area - even if it doesn't hit me flush the first time it shows up on the models - is that it show up on more than one model. Even the Euro, as good as it is, and its ensembles, if it hangs out alone too long, that's a flag. Feb of last year, the Euro led the way, but it wasn't by itself. GGEM came on board too. It was jus the GFS which held out so long. In any event, still hoping for something to cover the ground overnight Saturday for my backyard, even if minimal. yes...in terms of models, we have all been watching them for years now...We tend to get traumatized by bad failures and unreasonably buoyed by long range successes...the evolution of this storm at 500mb has changed quite a bit over the last 48 hours...I'd say more than we are used to even from this range...It lends some credence that the models are still clueless and this is an ever changing process even with major important features...of course that doesn't mean we'll see a trend in favor of what people want...and the fact that models keep gaining skill with every passing run doesn't lend too much support for euro-tastic solutions from a few runs ago...But I'm not too impressed for this particular storm with the idea that the models have anything really right yet...and that happens sometimes...I mean, it is still Tuesday and this is a Saturday event....2/12/14 spoiled us...Sandy spoiled us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Agreed. Didn't 09-10 also have it's fair share of very well modeled storms? I guess it's hard for models to miss the general execution of the upper levels when everything was so well entrenched in terms of the major indicators like the NAO, ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Agreed. Didn't 09-10 also have it's fair share of very well modeled storms? I guess it's hard for models to miss the general execution of the upper levels when everything was so well entrenched in terms of the major indicators like the NAO, ect. yes..although there were shifts at the surface that weren't insignificant...we get wrapped up in where we are...SNE almost never has very well-modeled solutions to any storm even at close range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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