Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Model can't even get the track right, why would we believe the temperatures? Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS is actually about where I would expect it at this point. I don't have enough tape on the para yet to know its biases but from what I have seen the last month it seems slightly better then the old gfs in general but still sadly pathetic compared to the euro. I am totally fine with the two GFS runs this morning. Didnt expect anything more at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend? Still got plenty of time to go. We all know sometimes models jump ship then come back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You are wrong. Stop posting. Run is best yet. If you compare panel 120 on the 12z to the panel 126 6z... that is an accurate statement. Just because the precipitation field is better does not make my statement incorrect. The same goes for panel 126/132... however with panel 126 on the 12z... the low is a little closer to the coast... but still weaker by 4 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Where is a lot of people? Don't see a location for you Im in Ocean County, NJ. Looks like this will be a washout for anyone within 40-50 miles of the coast from NC all the way up through MA which means rain for many people, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'll take what the Para GFS shows... 1-3" is good enough in a meh setup. And never mind my "next" post from early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Uh no... its snow This is as cold as we get on the para. I see that as mostly liquid. ETA: Not like it matters 120 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 it is clear interstate has NO clue .. zero What? Interstate said he was very disappointed in HR 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 depends and you are assuming that the 12z pra gfs is going to end up close to reality Looks like rain for a lot of people... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend? I say we just take all the models and change the freezing temperature to 50 degrees then salivate over their snow maps. PS: oh wait weatherbell already did that, never-mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Im in Ocean County, NJ. Looks like this will be a washout for anyone within 40-50 miles of the coast from NC all the way up through MA which means rain for many people, no? I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area. It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is as cold as we get on the para. I see that as mostly liquid. ETA: Not like it matters 120 hrs out Looks good ROA to Winchester, but still lots of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I say we just take all the models and change the freezing temperature to 50 degrees then salivate over their snow maps. PS: oh wait weatherbell already did that, never-mind. Pretty good consensus for a flat OTS track. I'll take some snow in the air but would like sfc temps below the mid-30s if it's going to be light. It could trend.. there's plenty of time. There's a lot of peculiar ignoring of guidance and hugging of gut feelings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend? What if we took the PGFS and hardcoded the surface to be 25F and moist adiabatic up to 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area. It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away This is a very active and good forum so I don't understand why someone who wants to learn should be restricted to one forum. Now if people are asking dumb questions and making negative comments then that is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area. It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away I will not hang out in the Philly area. There is no one to hang out with. I apreciate your politeness but here on the Jesey shore, temperatures and precipitation type are more similar to your area than they are philly or NY. I was asking a question, so why are you asking me to leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty good consensus for a flat OTS track. I'll take some snow in the air but would like sfc temps below the mid-30s if it's going to be light. It could trend.. there's plenty of time. There's a lot of peculiar ignoring of guidance and hugging of gut feelings as well. Obviously precip will decide temps. Surface is likely to be marginal but not toasty at onset (assuming there is an onset). We would need the rates to overcome 35* surface temps. Being on the nw side of a miller A is always good. Even with the weaker lp solutions the track is still decent. NW qpf surprises are fairly common. I'm not going to parse anything verbatim right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Regarding the GFSX showing the rain/snow line too close for comfort, the GFSX has been too warm in the boundary layer on the two most recent east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Obviously precip will decide temps. Surface is likely to be marginal but not toasty at onset (assuming there is an onset). We would need the rates to overcome 35* surface temps. Being on the nw side of a miller A is always good. Even with the weaker lp solutions the track is still decent. NW qpf surprises are fairly common. I'm not going to parse anything verbatim right now. I'd feel a little better about a surprise if the modeled low was not a weak high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is a very active and good forum so I don't understand why someone who wants to learn should be restricted to one forum. Now if people are asking dumb questions and making negative comments then that is a different story. I will not hang out in the Philly area. There is no one to hang out with. I apreciate your politeness but here on the Jesey shore, temperatures and precipitation type are more similar to your area than they are philly or NY. I was asking a question, so why are you asking me to leave? If you want to learn, you are welcome to read this forum and learn. We've got many knowledgable posters who add valuable insight and analysis whenever there is the threat of any meaningful storms. However, coastal NJ isn't part of this subforum's region. We aren't all that familiar with their climo, which BTW isn't necessarily the same as MD or northern VA. Therefore you can't expect our discussions to cater to that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 given what there 13KM GFS WAS showing ... well you folks can keep writing this off if you want and yes low level temps will be iffy in some areas but this does occur MOSTLY at NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Regarding the GFSX showing the rain/snow line too close for comfort, the GFSX has been too warm in the boundary layer on the two most recent east coast storms. Yeah. I remember someone saying the snow/rain depiction on tropicaltidbits was certainly wrong and biased warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 too bad the snow map is wrong around here. not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 given what there 13KM GFS WAS showing ... well you folks can keep writing this off if you want and yes low level temps will be iffy in some areas but this does occur MOSTLY at NIGHT 13KMGFS SNOW.png weren't you attacking the 13km gfs 10 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para not bad...maybe 1" for DC and 2-4" for western/far western burbs...would be a nice little event...unfortunately we created such high expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Not that this isnt already known but its all about perspective on where you live...If around the I81 corridor Id be pretty excited for a minor-moderate event with the chance of it being even more significant. However, being along I95 DC-Baltimore, Im not that excited for anything than ambient snowfall at THIS point...I would really like to see this trend stronger, but its hard to see a ~1010 low do much for us in a marginal cold situation to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Not that this isnt already known but its all about perspective on where you live...If around the I81 corridor Id be pretty excited for a minor-moderate event with the chance of it being even more significant. However, being along I95 DC-Baltimore, Im not that excited for anything than ambient snowfall at THIS point...I would really like to see this trend stronger, but its hard to see a ~1010 low do much for us in a marginal cold situation to begin with yeah...without a big pressure gradient, better air mass, confluence further south, we need a deeper low for most of us to get anything significant...I'd like to see an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 2" isn't that high a bar. if you live on a hill and get precip it's not terrible. these are the lows on the para though. combine with max rates of 0.2" liquid for 6 hours. color me unexcited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If you want to learn, you are welcome to read this forum and learn. We've got many knowledgable posters who add valuable insight and analysis whenever there is the threat of any meaningful storms. However, coastal NJ isn't part of this subforum's region. We aren't all that familiar with their climo, which BTW isn't necessarily the same as MD or northern VA. Therefore you can't expect our discussions to cater to that area. I aksed a general question about the storm. If you go back and read, I asked a question that would be relevant for your area as well as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 if you live on a hill and get precip it's not terrible. these are the lows on the para though. combine with max rates of 0.2" liquid for 6 hours. color me unexcited. The GFS parallel has been running a lil warm per high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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