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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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Taking a peek at the 12z NAM at hr 84 (just to see what it shows in relevance to the other models, not to use as a forecast), the 50/50 low is slowly moving out and there is a 1011 L down by HOU with decent moisture

using the dgex to extrapolate the NAM has been on board for an event, although a rain event since its actually over amped.  Means nothing though since the nam cant get yesterday right. 

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  WOW    the pulls  that the   gfs  has   past  72 hrs  on sooooo many   is just  scary...

 

guys if  you think this is a MISS.. 

 

attachicon.gif144eps0z.jpg

DT, I think MOST people on here know the GFS is garbage, but at the same time people do let emotions get involved a little and I think its fair to say it would be nice to have a little more support for a storm then ONLY the euro enembles.  With that said, if I could only have one piece of guidance on my side at this point that is the one I would choose, but honestly it would add confidence if something else was on board, perhaps the UKMET or GGEM or even the garbage GFS...  I dont think its just the GFS that is swaying people, at least I hope not.  I personally am still thinking an event is possible it not likely, but still would add confidence if something else jumped on board today. 

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I am pretty disappointed with the PGFS at 120

 

Could you explain in more detail, why you are so disappointed? Would be a lot more helpful to those of us who are trying to figure out what the models are showing. Posts like this, doesn't help.

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DT, I think MOST people on here know the GFS is garbage, but at the same time people do let emotions get involved a little and I think its fair to say it would be nice to have a little more support for a storm then ONLY the euro enembles.  With that said, if I could only have one piece of guidance on my side at this point that is the one I would choose, but honestly it would add confidence if something else was on board, perhaps the UKMET or GGEM or even the garbage GFS...  I dont think its just the GFS that is swaying people, at least I hope not.  I personally am still thinking an event is possible it not likely, but still would add confidence if something else jumped on board today. 

I don't understand why so many folks think operational models can pinpoint a storm a week away.  24 hour shifts with still a few days before a storm should be expected at this point, no?

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The fact that the GFS doesn't pull it together for this storm isn't the thing that's irking me....it's the fact that other models have trended toward it (with the suppressed look).   But I mean, it is only Tuesday...

agree for the most part but I think models are struggling and mostly jumping around not really trending at this point.  Either way the next few runs will settle it as the differences show up soon.  Either the northern jet dives in to phase or not and the stj is left to meander to its south.  Perhaps the final details are not resolved tonight because the GFS often takes a few runs to figure it out, but if we see a well developed system coming out of the gulf with the high in place at 60 hours...I think we can figure out where its headed from there in future runs. 

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Pretty cool the surface sucks even at night. 

 

Solid hit... let's not degrade our expectations that much. 

 

this -- its still a hit, details like surface temps can still be worked out. many here should be thankful that something is still showing a storm this weekend, instead of whining about it being rain/snow or "disappointing"

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