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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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I like the look of the euro ens mean.  I wrote this on my facebook page.  Nothing you guys here don't lready know but I'm usre interested in the storm and don't think it was early starting a thread about it.

 

Next weekend looks interesting as a southern stream low pressure system will be approaching the east coast. How the low tracks and whether there is enough cold air to support snow is still questionable but some models now are suggesting the potential for a snowstorm especially for the northern and western suburbs. However, other models so there is lots of uncertainty about the storm. h the European model has been forecasting that a low will track across the gulf states and then along or near the Carolina coast for the last three runs. It would suggest the possibility of snow for some folks if the track of the storm holds, a big if for a potential storm that is 5.5 to 6 days in the future. This mornings operational GFS takes a low to our north before reforming a low off the east coast which would offer rain for the area. However, the new experimental version has a track more in line with the European model. Last night's European ensemble members offered both possibilities but favored the more southern route across the gulf. to complicate the forecast this morning's Canadian model keeps the low so far south that it would miss us.. Lots of scenarios are still in play but next weekend is a period worth monitoring closely over the next week.

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yes...it still has an OV valley low...but I don't really care...it isn't a good model for east coast storms..

 

Looks like the parallel has shifted north with its track though I haven't see it run completely out yet.  I don't like it changing streams though I'd certainly still lean towards the euro mean but in any public product it's better to be very wishy washy as we still don't know exactly what the 50 50 low will do.  As Chill has noted, its gonna be the big player in the evolution along with the timing of the southern stream impulse. 

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Agree Wes. Looks solid for NW of I-95, and the trend on the Euro ens gives some hope for I-95 /coastal plain for at least some snow. Lots can still go wrong for the cities with the pattern in transition to a colder one, but nice to have something with potential to track over the next few days.

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Looks like the parallel has shifted north with its track though I haven't see it run completely out yet.  I don't like it changing streams though I'd certainly still lean towards the euro mean but in any public product it's better to be very wishy washy as we still don't know exactly what the 50 50 low will do.  As Chill has noted, its gonna be the big player in the evolution along with the timing of the southern stream impulse. 

 

Para looks like a strung out miller B that slides out to sea....it is a crappy solution but certainly one that can shift...hopefully we'll see more convergence as we get closer, though I don't trust that the GFS will catch on until closer in...hopefully the PARA performs well and inspires some confidence as we transition to it..

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Para looks like a strung out miller B that slides out to sea....it is a crappy solution but certainly one that can shift...hopefully we'll see more convergence as we get closer, though I don't trust that the GFS will catch on until closer in...hopefully the PARA performs well and inspires some confidence as we transition to it..

Seems the old gfs was the last to catch on in the prior storm. I can't remember what the para did.

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Do you recall if if those winters featured a few decent 6" -8" snows that were topped with .25" of ice. I remember getting a few storms like that herein MoCo, but can't remember which years. I can't remeber the last time there was a moderate snow capped off with a layer if glass.

yep, that's what I was talking about re taint, but you did better than me in Mo Co as I was in central AA Co.....prolly kick ur butt on the 2/78 bliz though   :P

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Does anyone have any thoughts on the limit of how cold this storm can trend assuming we get enough semblance of a 50/50 low ans also assuming the Euro is to be believed. Was today's run about as good as it gets or is the more room for a colder or even much colder solution.

 

It is an at or slightly below air mass...whatever cold air there is is being forced down here...in early december a climo air mass is not good enough....on 12/20 it is with the right surface and 500mb track....highs on Friday should be 40-45...I wouldnt be surprised if most of DC metro is in the upper 30s on Friday....this won't be a situation where it is 56 the day before the storm and we need the cold air to arrive...the borderline air mass will already be in place

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It is an at or slightly below air mass...whatever cold air there is is being forced down here...in early december a climo air mass is not good enough....on 12/20 it is with the right surface and 500mb track....highs on Friday should be 40-45...I wouldnt be surprised if most of DC metro is in the upper 30s on Friday....this won't be a situation where it is 56 the day before the storm and we need the cold air to arrive...the borderline air mass will already be in place

Thanks for the input. With so many possibilities this far out we'll have to watch for timing as the storm could easily be pushed up or delayed and how that may affect temps, but like you said the airmass doesn't look terrible. If there going tobe a stormand DC stays in the upper 30's on Friday half the battle may be won for you guys down there.

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Thanks...appreciate it...you probably won't be in the sweet spot for this one, though I'm sure you will still manage to get under some superband for 6 hours... ;)

 

For any weenie posters interested in a chase (should the opportunity arise)... my annual Christmas party is Dec 20 starting @ 5:30 PM.  Lots of food and drinks.  Decent hotels nearby if needed.  Feel free to stop in for some refreshments and fun.  PM me if you're coming out this way and want to stop by (should the opportunity arise).

 

I've got a pretty good batting percentage for hitting snow on our party date.  This would be the 3rd time (should the opportunity arise) since 2008 it's snowed -  including the great storm of '09.

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Yeah just one or two that remotely resemble the Euro.

Never fun when one model stands alone, but it IS the euro and from what I can tell from you guys, it's ens is in line with it.

If this was a northern stream vort I would have much more pause. But I honestly don't remember the last time the GFS/GEFS did well with a gulf miller A snow event at medium/long leads. Probably because we've only had 2 since 2010 but the GFS did really bad with both of them.

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If this was a northern stream vort I would have much more pause. But I honestly don't remember the last time the GFS/GEFS did well with a gulf miller A snow event at medium/long leads. Probably because we've only had 2 since 2010 but the GFS did really bad with both of them.

Bob, I don't know where you get this idea. GFS is tight when it comes to Miller A's, and has been for years. Take for example its 120 hour run at 12Z on 2/1/10 attached below....lol

I'd say the GFS is "right where we'd expect it to be if you want a big storm in 5-6 days!"

post-821-0-21715800-1418603438_thumb.gif

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