Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't really have words for this solution except there is no way it can be right...lol...just weird....this is far from settled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 HMMM DT EURO sure looks like a disorganized and weak mess. GFS leaading the way big dog I'll wire you money not to post in this forum....yes...I will pay you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 No fighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'll wire you money not to post in this forum....yes...I will pay you.... You don't have to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't really have words for this solution except there is no way it can be right...lol...just weird....this is far from settled.... Yeah, the way the new run sets everything up is a little sketchy...definitely more on the table. Interesting to see what the ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Not surprising giving the range we are in. If the 12z EURO shows this, then I may get worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What's stopping the progression of the northern vort? I can't find anything that'd cause it to react like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just how many people from Pennsylvania are going to post here tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 What's stopping the progression of the Northern Vort? I can't find anything that'd cause it to react like that. I don't know, but it is pretty strong and it messes everything up...lol....you actually end up with a low off the cape.....congrats Syracuse and Congrats Blacksburg...how often does that happen from the "same" system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Not surprising giving the range we are in. If the 12z EURO shows this, then I may get worried. I'm gravely concerned about how this storm might affect someone who lives 40 miles north of Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just how many people from Pennsylvania are going to post here tonight? I have been there but I am not from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One of the reasons why the system sliding off the Carolina Coast and bringiS a significant snowstorm to Western North Carolina and Virginia and eastern portions of West Virginia... iIs that there is a upstream feature or piece of energy that is located over California Nevada on 12/ 20. The building Ridge in the jet stream towards the British Columbia Coast FORCES the weak shortwave over CAL. NV to amplify and move more rapidly to the east. This in turn acts as an upstream "kicker " which prevents the system coming up from Alabama and Georgia to make a sharp turn up the coast. As a result the track is along the Carolina Coast which is t good snowstorm that for eastern WVA Virginia mrns of Western NC but bad for everybody north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 see MY new post What's stopping the progression of the northern vort? I can't find anything that'd cause it to react like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One of the reasons why the system sliding off the Carolina Coast and bringiS a significant snowstorm to Western North Carolina and Virginia and eastern portions of West Virginia... iIs that there is a upstream feature or piece of energy that is located over California Nevada on 12/ 20. The building Ridge in the jet stream towards the British Columbia Coast FORCES the weak shortwave over CAL. NV to amplify and move more rapidly to the east. This in turn acts as an upstream "kicker " which prevents the system coming up from Alabama and Georgia to make a sharp turn up the coast. As a result the track is along the Carolina Coast which is t good snowstorm that for eastern WVA Virginia mrns of Western NC but bad for everybody north of DC Nice...thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro ensemble was good and bad. The good: - MUCH better agreement amongst the ensemble members this run. The 500 mb pattern is more tightly clustered and has only several major outliers. - Despite weaker solution, still has a decent trough at 500 mb that is deeper, more consolidated than the Op. - Still has decent snow a ways N+W of I-95, and the I-81 corridor remains the focal point for the bigger snow totals. - Everyone has 0.5"+ QPF. The bad: - Much weaker low in the means (we're talking 8-10 mb weaker... a significant shift). - The weaker storm caused QPF to drop by a guesstimate of 0.2-0.3" for most spots. EDIT to add: - Naturally, with the weaker+drier storm, surface temps bumped up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro ensemble was good and bad. The good: - MUCH better agreement amongst the ensemble members this run. The 500 mb pattern is more tightly clustered and has only several major outliers. - Despite weaker solution, still has a decent trough at 500 mb that is deeper, more consolidated than the Op. - Still has decent snow N+W of I-95, and the I-81 corridor remains the focal point for the bigger snow totals. - Everyone has 0.5"+ QPF. The bad: - Much weaker low in the means (we're talking 8-10 mb weaker... a significant shift). - The weaker storm caused QPF to drop by a guesstimate of 0.2-0.3" for most spots. Thanks for posting this. The thing that jumped out to me at first looking at the EPS was the much weaker low in the means, too. The timing between the OP and EPS looks off. For example, at hour 138, the OP low is 1012 SE of Hatteras while the EPS mean low is due east of Ocean City and due south of the tip of LI. At hour 144, the OP's low is 1012 just off OBX. The EPS mean at hour 144 is well NE of there (due east of Ocean City and due south of Cape Cod). Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thanks for posting this. The thing that jumped out to me at first looking at the EPS was the much weaker low in the means, too. The timing between the OP and EPS looks off. For example, at hour 138, the OP low is 1012 SE of Hatteras while the EPS mean low is due east of Ocean City and due south of the tip of LI. At hour 144, the OP's low is 1012 just off OBX. The EPS mean at hour 144 is well NE of there (due east of Ocean City and due south of Cape Cod). Thoughts? I have no thoughts. I'm not terribly concerned with the exacts of the Euro Op (or any Op) solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para gfs is a bit better this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para gfs is a bit better this morning. lol... it's in and out in like 6 hours. Maybe 0.1" QPF. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 um why? Because I read it that he said that the Euro was falling in line with other guidance. But maybe I read it wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nice 1009 low on the PGFS. Powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I count this as a win for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not sure its gone yet. The gfs members at 6z had probably their best look yet. The SREFS (I'm already ducking) show a slower and slightly deeper progression at h5. Slower would have to be better wouldn't it? Trying to be optimistic. Still 4 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I count this as a win for the GFS. That would be a good post....if it today were Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not sure its gone yet. The gfs members at 6z had probably their best look yet. The SREFS (I'm already ducking) show a slower and slightly deeper progression at h5. Slower would have to be better wouldn't it? Trying to be optimistic. Still 4 days to go. It'll shift back a little to tease us, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not sure its gone yet. The gfs members at 6z had probably their best look yet. The SREFS (I'm already ducking) show a slower and slightly deeper progression at h5. Slower would have to be better wouldn't it? Trying to be optimistic. Still 4 days to go. Fwiw WPC likes a blend of the Euro op and ens. At this point its a decent bet some place in the region will see a minor to moderate event. Best chance would be where heavier precip coincides with elevation obviously, given marginal temps. I suppose at this point the higher elevations of W VA would be a decent spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The PGFS showed a pretty weak low, but a much more organized precip shield. In that sense, it's a victory, simply because the GFS (and I assume it's little brother) history has precip shield issues with Miller A or Bs. Not sure why so glum here too, every major model shows some type of snow falling in the cities, Not to mention, we are not talking about some type of hail mary here to turn this into a moderate impact event...with 4.5 days out the EPS is still spitting out nearly triple the QPF of the deterministic for JYO. We all know how this goes, the ensembles are still very useful and telling up to about 84 hours from an event. While the super amped up solution seems very unlikely, i'm not sure we wanted the low to track that far west to begin with. Call it a hunch or decorated weenism, but this may trend stronger over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The PGFS showed a pretty weak low, but a much more organized precip shield. In that sense, it's a victory, simply because the GFS (and I assume it's little brother) history has precip shield issues with Miller A or Bs. Not sure why so glum here too, every major model shows some type of snow falling in the cities, Not to mention, we are not talking about some type of hail mary here to turn this into a moderate impact event...with 4.5 days out the EPS is still spitting out nearly triple the QPF of the deterministic for JYO. We all know how this goes, the ensembles are still very useful and telling up to about 84 hours from an event. While the super amped up solution seems very unlikely, i'm not sure we wanted the low to track that far west to begin with. Call it a hunch or decorated weenism, but this may trend stronger over the next 48 hours. I love the word weenism - LOL! I too think it will trend stronger.. I hope we see some model consistency starting at 12z even if it sucks for MBY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 actually, it's at least 0.25" for a decent part of the LWX area. lol... it's in and out in like 6 hours. Maybe 0.1" QPF. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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